Quasievil Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 the updated HPC 11am discussion explains it pretty well as to why there are some model discrepencies...Patience is the key here...there are many moving parts which is why so many solutions are being thrown out...still may end badly Yeah, thanks for pointing this out. This is the best part of the discussion: I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. AND BOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'S A GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6) SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THE FORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTIL THEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GEFS are all over the place... some big hits... some show nothing... long week ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Stop wallowing in your self-pity. Trust me, I'm not. It's the GFS I think is pitiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GEFS are all over the place... some big hits... some show nothing... long week ahead Yeah they are. Several have Op-like big bags of WTF. 3-4 are major hits Miller-A style. A couple big cutters. I'd say less consensus then there was 24-36 hours ago. Saturday has my eye though. Most members have a defined low scoot W-E offshore to our south, including the Op. Euro has hinted at that a bit if IIRC. If that moved a bit north, we could have a nice little appetizer (or consolation prize). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah they are. Several have Op-like big bags of WTF. 3-4 are major hits Miller-A style. A couple big cutters. I'd say less consensus then there was 24-36 hours ago. Saturday has my eye though. Most members have a defined low scoot W-E offshore to our south, including the Op. Euro has hinted at that a bit if IIRC. If that moved a bit north, we could have a nice little appetizer (or consolation prize). P004/P005/P006 look tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take your pick of lows on the 12 gfs ensemble mean. None of them look too good to me: could be because there are several solutions and they are splitting the difference on the means...or because the GEFS is implying the system does not get its act together until late. Wont tell until individual panels come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 could be because there are several solutions and they are splitting the difference on the means...or because the GEFS is implying the system does not get its act together until late. Wont tell until individual panels come out. They already are out on PSU E-Wall... WxUSAF and I discussed them briefly above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The frontunner on the euro is pretty close to giving us something...as wxusaf said, def something to pay attention to...as is gives us some light snow...maybe 1-2" for southeast areas Appetizer (or consolation) for the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The frontunner on the euro is pretty close to giving us something...as wxusaf said, def something to pay attention to...as is gives us some light snow...maybe 1-2" for southeast areas The front running vort has been coming out more amped every day. It taps the gulf. If I had to guess this trend will continue. How far north precip gets is tough with confluence above. But if recent past history tells us anything....and some gefs members signaling it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The front running vort has been coming out more amped every day. It taps the gulf. If I had to guess this trend will continue. How far north precip gets is tough with confluence above. But if recent past history tells us anything....and some gefs members signaling it as well. I think it's kinda hurting us tho for the supposed main course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think it's kinda hurting us tho for the supposed main course. Euro is similar to gfs now. Front runner and no dig behind. You could see it coming early. No phase means no dig down to shreveport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro is similar to gfs now. Front runner and no dig behind. You could see it coming early. No phase means no dig down to shreveport. Yeah, was afraid of that. That's unfortunate, but hey.. 1 to 2" from the consolation!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah they are. Several have Op-like big bags of WTF. 3-4 are major hits Miller-A style. A couple big cutters. I'd say less consensus then there was 24-36 hours ago. Saturday has my eye though. Most members have a defined low scoot W-E offshore to our south, including the Op. Euro has hinted at that a bit if IIRC. If that moved a bit north, we could have a nice little appetizer (or consolation prize). I think it is the handing off of too much energy into that frontrunner that is preventing the bigger solution for the amplifying trough behind it. It's possible that front system turns into something, but I am more interested to see as we get closer if the models don't key more on the trailing system and thus a bigger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, was afraid of that. That's unfortunate, but hey.. 1 to 2" from the consolation!!!!! We'll see about that 1-2. Compact low gets going off of obx. If the front runner amps enough things change pretty quick, And if that happens I don't give an F about what could have been the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 They already are out on PSU E-Wall... WxUSAF and I discussed them briefly above sorry I was behind, and thats a good thing the spread of solutions, means a big storm is still in the possible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it kind of leaves behind some energy and we get some more light snow on Sunday....but the "2nd" act is mostly OTS too...not sure you can treat them as 2 discrete events...anyway we get some light snows on Saturday and then again on Sunday, but nothing more than 1-2" maybe this sounds like more our "speed" and probably supported by the pattern plus, something weak that morphs into something moderate come game time is doable around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro is similar to gfs now. Front runner and no dig behind. You could see it coming early. No phase means no dig down to shreveport. Too many vorts spoiling the party or is the flow too flat and fast? Or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not giving up. hM said this is a darn good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think it's kinda hurting us tho for the supposed main course. THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Too many vorts spoiling the party or is the flow too flat and fast? Or both? The interaction out west is the all or nothing. The original idea was the strong vort diving out of canada was going to phase with the southern vort/trough and combine forces. Now the front runner comes out by itself and leaves the important piece in the dust. So by the time the ns vort ejects it has to dig by itself so there is basically no amplification to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it kind of leaves behind some energy and we get some more light snow on Sunday....but the "2nd" act is mostly OTS too...not sure you can treat them as 2 discrete events...anyway we get some light snows on Saturday and then again on Sunday, but nothing more than 1-2" maybe It's better than the GFS.....the ensembles are all over the place so we still won't have a clue for another couple of days. If the 1st impulse didn't pull a low way off the coast, the second one would probably be a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The interaction out west is the all or nothing. The original idea was the strong vort diving out of canada was going to phase with the southern vort/trough and combine forces. Now the front runner comes out by itself and leaves the important piece in the dust. So by the time the ns vort ejects it has to dig by itself so there is basically no amplification to get excited about. That sounds just like euro desert sw bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's better than the GFS.....the ensembles are all over the place so we still won't have a clue for another couple of days. If the 1st impulse didn't pull a low way off the coast, the second one would probably be a decent hit. What if the first one amplifies more? Couldn't it become a MA only deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That sounds just like euro desert sw bias Kind of the opposite. The shortwave in the sw ejects quickly leaving the ns piece in the pac nw all alone to do its own thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What if the first one amplifies more? Couldn't it become a MA only deal? That's hard to do with the next system roaring in on its heals. A little more amplitude might help. With all the huge differences between model runs and ens members, I wouldn't read much into the euro except it's better than the GFS. Neither is likely right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's hard to do with the next system roaring in on its heals. A little more amplitude might help. With all the huge differences between model runs and ens members, I wouldn't read much into the euro except it's better than the GFS. Neither is likely right. Agreed. The only thing the ops told us today was to watch for it coming out in pieces. It's possible. Euro ensemble mean from last night looks absolutely nothing like what today's op looks like anyways. And today's gefs said take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The differences that psuhoffman posted continue to show me why models are so lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm but a rank amateur, and I know this setup kinda sucks, but isn't this par for the course a lot of times for storms like this - to have something pretty consistently from day 9 or 10 through day 5 and then lose it, only to bring it back 72 or 84 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's better than the GFS.....the ensembles are all over the place so we still won't have a clue for another couple of days. If the 1st impulse didn't pull a low way off the coast, the second one would probably be a decent hit. I was thinking this too... the frontrunner is way out ahead of the h5 trough so there is a limit to how much it can amp since its running into confluence without much upper support, but what it is doing is racing east with the WAA and messing up the flow behind it. Weaken that frontrunner and I think we get a solution that makes more of us happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this sounds like more our "speed" and probably supported by the pattern plus, something weak that morphs into something moderate come game time is doable around here I agree. If it keeps ejecting weak waves at least it would take a big cutter off of the table. But of course we lose our HEC's chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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