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Feb 8-10 Light snow event that i spent 10 days tracking


Ji

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My guess is it finally feels the block and that's why it models to sit and dump on Boston for 2 days. I would guess they are all Feb. 78 chatter up in their thread on that run.

I was actually speaking about the light stuff for 24hrs before the main storm arrives.  But BL temps are quite warm still, so it's probably light rain on Saturday.  What a wackadoodle run.  

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3 runs, 3 different evolutions on the GFS. Typical, and still completely unresolved. 

 

True..it misses philly..in all honesty we know it is going to change..but not sure a change will help us, unless it is a wholesale change......I imagine the euro will have a different solution but also one that drives a low to our west...

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You know I will never blow smoke up your @$$, and the trends the last 24 hours are not good, but there is a chance things evolve back towards a better scenario.  The Euro could be having issues holding the STJ energy back too much, like its bias, and the GFS seems to be throwing too much into the front runner and leaving nothing behind for what to me looks like the main vort digging in behind.  Sometimes the energy really does run out ahead, but just looking at evolution on the 12z GFS it seems wrong to me.  All that energy diving in behind, and the GFS runs the initial surface low OTS then puts all its eggs in the northern stream system.  If that STJ system does not hand off all its energy OTS and has more left behind I think we see more of a gulf low develop and this looks more like it did a few days ago.  I will admit this new trend is bad but its possible its doing the normal 3-5 day thing where models lose the correct solution they had at day 7. 

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Margusity's latest Facebook comment: 

"The Sunday storm remains me of the Feb 18th 1979 storm. Pattern was a lot like what we have. I was in High School watching the snow pile up outside."

 

What is he seeing that would make him say that?

He is awful, all the hype of JB and none of the skill, but Feb 79 actually has been showing up in some of the analogs, so maybe he just saw that and ran with it.

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