stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Nailbiter till the end. It's still a good run regardless. Secondary taking over near obx/capes is required for us at this latitude. Yeah, not as good as 0z last night, but we'd take this in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 165 990 L NE of OC by 100-150 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Most know this already but focusing verbatim @ the surface on an op this far out is bad for nerves. We won't know how far the primary will get for days. All the important pieces are still there. And consensus is growing for an ok storm in our parts. If we flip, we flip. 6" is a major win and there is some upside for sure. And downside too but we won't speak about that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think we can take KU out of the thread title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, not as good as 0z last night, but we'd take this in a heartbeat. Yep. Would sign up for it now. Plenty of time for this to change. Transfers are tricky business and I'm not going to get my hopes too far up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think we can take KU out of the thread title Ian (I think it was him, if not, my bad) changed it to Winter Threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yep. Would sign up for it now. Plenty of time for this to change. Transfers are tricky business and I'm not going to get my hopes too far up yet. Yea, me too. 9 times out of 10 the transfer is too late. But that's ok. We have plenty of front side potential to discuss and track. If that comes in hot and heavy then I doubt any of us will care it goes to hell after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Most know this already but focusing verbatim @ the surface on an op this far out is bad for nerves. We won't know how far the primary will get for days. All the important pieces are still there. And consensus is growing for an ok storm in our parts. If we flip, we flip. 6" is a major win and there is some upside for sure. And downside too but we won't speak about that for now. Yes. At this range, nobody should be living and dying on exact placement of features.....living in this area, we usually flirt with the sleet or a changeover. Would love to have the 0z dream run, but this will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This one is much better than a timing event with 60 the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thump, except this seems like a long duration event. It's like an 8-9 hour event, then we dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yep. Would sign up for it now. Plenty of time for this to change. Transfers are tricky business and I'm not going to get my hopes too far up yet. Yes. We could get screwed with the transfer easily. If this run is the "worst" case scenario, I'm all for it. In this region, we have to check our expectations.....here in the city, even under the best of circumstances we mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yea, me too. 9 times out of 10 the transfer is too late. But that's ok. We have plenty of front side potential to discuss and track. If that comes in hot and heavy then I doubt any of us will care it goes to hell after that. Having grown up about an hour north of NYC these are the type of events where I used to score big. But having been in DC for a good while I'm used to Miller B's being tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 problem is once the upper level trough swings through, we have dry slotted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 problem is once the upper level trough swings through, we have dry slotted...Per 12z today yes, wonder what future runs will have in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 not a good run...dry and marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 not a good run...dry and marginal temps Pretty much. To bob, I hear ya, but I sure am wanting one where we are not marginal heading into it. I guess a Miller A with no transfer is off the table? We have to hope for a Miller B that doesn't screw us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GGEM on the crappy maps -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif 1008 L in C GA at 12z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 sadly, this has NE special written all over it (but we all knew that, I suppose) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Pretty much. To bob, I hear ya, but I sure am wanting one where we are not marginal heading into it. I guess a Miller A with no transfer is off the table? We have to hope for a Miller B that doesn't screw us? Not at all. 0z GFS was Miller A and looks like today's 12z GGEM might be too. A few in the GEFS as well that I see. I'd say several options are on the table. Just at the moment looks fairly good that this thing won't cut to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Not at all. 0z GFS was Miller A and looks like today's 12z GGEM might be too. A few in the GEFS as well that I see. I'd say several options are on the table. Just at the moment looks fairly good that this thing won't cut to Chicago. It looks like that at 144... waiting for the meteocentre maps in 15 mins to see where the low goes from C GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 we need a better block...primary to be more south and transfer to SC coast.....still a week out but i think we will score front running snow no matter what. thats sees to be a given in all the models even if the end result is crap. KU removed:( like usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lots of smart knowledgeable posters talking mournfully about specific surface features 6-7 days out...the overall takeaway is that this thing still has potential to evolve in a positive way for us. Why are we talking about precip totals and dry slots for a storm this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 sadly, this has NE special written all over it (but we all knew that, I suppose) all the models are showing west based blocking...and the low is weak...I wouldn't punt a decent overrunning scenario...plus we don't know what is going to happen anyway...I'd lock in the GFS and its 4-6" of snow for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Pretty much. To bob, I hear ya, but I sure am wanting one where we are not marginal heading into it. I guess a Miller A with no transfer is off the table? We have to hope for a Miller B that doesn't screw us? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but with the vort depth and placemnet in the middle of the country and the heights out front the best case scenario is a hybrid where the primary skips to the coast far south and comes up. I don't see this as a miller A pattern but a hybrid that gets us good is certainly within the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 not a good run...dry and marginal temps Honestly? No, it's not the great snowstorm that 00Z showed last night, but you cannot seriously think we'll now see that run after run. But this is a far cry better than it going to Chicago, Toledo, or Detroit. We get a good round of snow out of it before some kind of mix or change over (sleet/ice/rain?). Pretty crazy to parse the details of the transfer at this point. As others have said, it's good to see the idea of a farther south transfer of some kind right now, and hope that the cutter solutions are becoming far less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It lost PD3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GGEM is pretty wet at 144 (color map)-- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg s/w crossing Mississippi river at positive tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but with the vort depth and placemnet in the middle of the country and the heights out front the best case scenario is a hybrid where the primary skips to the coast far south and comes up. I don't see this as a miller A pattern but a hybrid that gets us good is certainly within the envelope. That's kind of how it looked to me. The 500-mb vort/trough going much farther south like it has on the better solutions is also good, I think. At least better than wrapping up in the Ohio Valley area (as the Chicago solutions did). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 all the models are showing west based blocking...and the low is weak...I wouldn't punt a decent overrunning scenario...plus we don't know what is going to happen anyway...I'd lock in the GFS and its 4-6" of snow for me I'm putting the cart before the horse, but after today it seems obvious that the pattern has changed a bit and the fast flow has gone to something more normal (or should I say "what we are all used to") hence, the models at this range are 1) overdoing the confluence and/or blocking vs. reality in 6 days, and 2) underplaying the northern stream I hope, from the depths of my weenie heart, that I am wrong but I see today's storm, Wednesday's event, and this event as a string of misses to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 It lost PD3 lets just get 6-10 from the weekend and call it a winter. Then we can start tracking El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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