BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Doesnt the relatively fast flow and overall lower amplitude longwave pattern argue against that? Idk. Maybe someone that knows more than I can chime in. Based on current guidance with the look up in eastern Canada, I would think thats low possibility. Yes, that solution is probably the least likely...the biggest way we get screwed is the storm really never develops or its a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After taking a second look at the mslp means, hr 132 has the lowest pressure centered right off of obx and it tracks ne. The track is off the coast and not benchmark style. I'll take my chances at our latutude with this. Haven't check the ne subforum but I'm pretty sure they aren't thrilled Thats the scenario I mentioned a few posts up. I think that is ideal in this set up and I would take it given the other possibilities. Dont need a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would post the DGEX snowfall map but I don't want people to take it or me seriously. No one takes it too seriously and I already posted it above. And someone did yesterday too. I bet you have a better and more detailed map that shows 20 inches or so? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thats the scenario I mentioned a few posts up. I think that is ideal in this set up and I would take it given the other possibilities. Dont need a KU. I'm totally happy wirh it. KU requires a perfect dance with transient features. It's a good run. I cant view the ind member precip charts from my phone for some reason. I'll post later when I get to a pc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is total snowfall from 84-192. Please don't rip me though the amounts are down from yesterday or the day before, the concentration of snowfall continues to be the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Question for anyone--IF this bombs out around OBX and rides NE, wouldn't that also help generate its own cold air flow from the N/NE? Keep rain potential to almost non-exsistent? Thanks for reading. Always still learning in this sometimes painful hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Question for anyone--IF this bombs out around OBX and rides NE, wouldn't that also help generate its own cold air flow from the N/NE? Keep rain potential to almost non-exsistent? Thanks for reading. Always still learning in this sometimes painful hobby.If the track from ga/sc/obx happens like the EPS mean is advertising verifies then rain is a minor worry at best. If the primary tracks West of us we just have to hope it never makes it an inch out of Kentucky. I'm just going to worry about a storm impacting the area first and foremost. The risk of whiffing south is on the table as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Anyone have the CRAS model.... I don't even know how far it goes out, but I am interested in seeing it, since it did predict the last couple of storms before all others. Many joke about the CRAS but its sorta like a cult figure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not sure what's going to be worse-- no storm or ANOTHER storm that's too warm down here. Over the past 35 days, we are running a -5 temp and a +2 precipitation with 2 inches of snow. Seems clear with all the moving parts we won't get a general idea for a while. I mean, for a while time frame was Friday- Saturday. Still concerned about the poor analogs that are showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the track from ga/sc/obx happens like the EPS mean is advertising verifies then rain is a minor worry at best. If the primary tracks West of us we just have to hope it never makes it an inch out of Kentucky. I'm just going to worry about a storm impacting the area first and foremost. The risk of whiffing south is on the table as well. That makes sense Professor Chill. Thanks. I agree. Need a storm first and foremost. Details can be ironed out late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Long Term CRAS. lol http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras90_NA/18/index_ten_m_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Long Term CRAS. lol http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras90_NA/18/index_ten_m_loop.html I'll take that run ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll take that run ! Richmond see a lot of rain on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cras is notoriously warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cras is notoriously awful and adds no value to this discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I know It was more of a jokewasn't really replying to u just making a note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cras is notoriously awful and adds no value to this discussioncras nailed the boxing day storm tho...it has its uses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 cras nailed the boxing day storm tho...it has its uses Sigh. Referencing the boxing day storm in these parts is probably not a good move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Richmond see a lot of rain on that run. Try that again, I believe the run you saw only had half the run.. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras90_NA/18/index_ten_m_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sigh. Referencing the boxing day storm in these parts is probably not a good move. yikes I'm sorry....I will go back to the phl dead zone forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Read through the threads. Wntwxluvr and others will get mad if you note issues on specific runs. So, a generic, yup, there's a storm, will suffice. It's ok to say what the model is showing. Knocking the models for being flakey 5-7 days out is kinda ridiculous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 yikes I'm sorry....I will go back to the phl dead zone forum Stick around, I sure don't mind. But if you do, you may want to know that Boxing Day storm was a massive epic bust down here, probably second only to the March 2001 bust. We managed to be the one area that completely missed that storm. So referencing that the CRAS nailed that one isn't bound to make any of us feel warm and fuzzy down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's ok to say what the model is showing. Knocking the models for being flakey 5-7 days out is kinda ridiculous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Stick around, I sure don't mind. But if you do, you may want to know that Boxing Day storm was a massive epic bust down here, probably second only to the March 2001 bust. We managed to be the one area that completely missed that storm. So referencing that the CRAS nailed that one isn't bound to make any of us feel warm and fuzzy down this way.gotcha. I didnt realize bd was such a bust down there :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cras is notoriously awful and adds no value to this discussion Maybe I shouldn't brought it up, just trying to bring some humor to this board...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Maybe I shouldn't brought it up, just trying to bring some humor to this board...... Last year cras posts were only allowed in banter but I have poked a few cras posts into disco this year so I can't really throw rocks at glass houses either. This storm is completely unresolved which makes it fun if you can endure the disaster runs without going into Prozac mode. We have every possible screw job scenario all the way to huge hits on the table. I kinda live for this stuff. The only 2 things I feel ok about saying is that we probably won't get totally blanked with snow and we won't get close to perfect solution but even then...we might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The issue that's worrying me is that the vort is coming in much less diggy and much less south on the last couple of runs - not that we CAN'T score that way, but it makes it much much trickier for us if that's the case. We keep dismissing these as "weird runs", but much of the guidance seems to be trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Models are having a tough time figuring out how to eject the energy in the NW CONUS. Until they get a better grasp on how that energy will come East, we won't have a clue how the storm will transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 FWIW the NAM @ 78 hours has a very good look to it. The shortwave taking place out west @ 78 hours isn't as robust as the 6z GFS was, there's very good confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Models are having a tough time figuring out how to eject the energy in the NW CONUS. Until they get a better grasp on how that energy will come East, we won't have a clue how the storm will transpire. we have a pretty good idea...and it will involve a lot of rain or a miss for us and 40N getting nailed...it is becoming pretty clear.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.