H2O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 yesterday's 12z had a cutter. this 12z has a slow transfer from KY to Hat. The trend is a net positive so I don't get it either. Heck, by tomorrows 12z it could be an OTS I was partially Carnac yesterday. said 12z when it was the 0z GFS that went OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HPC nailed it with "details are fuzzy"....bet 12Z GFS will look nothing like 6Z...just a hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs is basically rain...BL temps are hot despite all other levels below...looks like what just happened on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HPC nailed it with "details are fuzzy"....bet 12Z GFS will look nothing like 6Z...just a hunch hell not surprised after monday bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs is basically rain...BL temps are hot despite all other levels below...looks like what just happened on monday I,ve seen heavy snow at 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we're in an ok spot with some other guidance being colder and s and e with slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I,ve seen heavy snow at 38. No doubt...good luck ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 edit: n/m, the chart didnt paste well. 850-925 temps crash, who knows when the bulk of that precip falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 would prefer the 00Z version of this story....weaker and bit colder in upper levels...if you don't have at least the first blue line overhead at 850 it's time to panic...purple don't cut it most times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we're in an ok spot with some other guidance being colder and s and e with slp. Since you are in Philly, I agree, you are probably ok no matter if the primary drives to ohio or not. Down here, that isn't such a great look for us. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Since you are in Philly, I agree, you are probably ok no matter if the primary drives to ohio or not. Down here, that isn't such a great look for us. Sent from my iPhone you're definitely still in the game down there with this....don't give up yet its very early in the game...we're due for a DC-Bos MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not "giving up", just discussing that model run. Any run which shows the primary to Cleveland and then coastal redevelopment will not have a good outcome for my part of the mid-Atlantic. I am not saying it will evolve that way, but it is certainly in the realm of possible solutions. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't have the detailed maps, but the Euro ensembles are decently west of the operational maybe when Bob gets on the scene he could provide details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't have the detailed maps, but the Euro ensembles are decently west of the operational maybe when Bob gets on the scene he could provide detail are you indicating a coastal ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 are you indicating a coastal ?? this is the Day 6 mean; obviously, the storm is moving NE off the coast day 5 is unclear exactly where the mean has it unfortunately http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this is the Day 6 mean; obviously, the storm is moving NE off the coast day 5 is unclear exactly where the mean has it unfortunately http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= thanks for clarifying!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs is basically rain...BL temps are hot despite all other levels below...looks like what just happened on monday Good thing it will not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good thing it will not verify. If you say so. Well within the envelope of possibilites is a primary to Ohio and a transfer that happens too far north for our area. Not predicting it, but noting that you cannot simply dismiss that kind of solution as unlikely. It's quite possible. Wes and Bob (and HM when he pops in here) have written for two days on how if the Baffin block isn't in just right the place and just strong enough that changes things. The other thing which gives me pause are the analogs that Matt keeps referencing. Not a lot of big snows in there, at all. An inch or two analogs don't provide a lot of comfort for my part of the area anyway. Probably looks a lot better out to Winchester and up to Frederick Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If you say so. Well within the envelope of possibilites is a primary to Ohio and a transfer that happens too far north for our area. Not predicting it, but noting that you cannot simply dismiss that kind of solution as unlikely. It's quite possible. Wes and Bob (and HM when he pops in here) have written for two days on how if the Baffin block isn't in just right the place and just strong enough that changes things. The other thing which gives me pause are the analogs that Matt keeps referencing. Not a lot of big snows in there, at all. An inch or two analogs don't provide a lot of comfort for my part of the area anyway. Probably looks a lot better out to Winchester and up to Frederick Westminster. not expecting anything big this weekend. What ever happens deal with it. After mondays fiasco I,m very wary of expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the models are playing their typical "day 4-5 disappearing act" with this storm. It'll be back I believe. I know it hasn't completely disappeared but it's changed dramatically. Just a hunch there. These solutions are whacked out it seems. I agree. Goofy runs for the GFS and Euro last night. 6z GFS... who cares. To me this looks like its shaping up to be a cold storm that should produce some snow. Details like phasing, whether it goes negative tilt etc have yet to be resolved. Generally looks like there will be high pressure in SE Canada, but will there be enough of a block to hold it. Pattern looks progressive, so this may be a case where ideally we get the low south scooting ENE off the Carolina coast. It could be pretty moist based on what we have seen lately, so some heavy snow or snow/sleet looks very possible for MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 06z DGEX is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The Miller b scenario is the one we need to fear. Unless we get a transfer south of OC. I don't get the Euros OTS solution from last night. It doesn't seem to match it's 500 map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 06z DGEX is pretty dgex.jpg dgex2.jpg Too bad its the DGEX , but I like that general scenario as a possible outcome for this storm. I guess I am optimistic this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The Miller b scenario is the one we need to fear. Unless we get a transfer south of OC. I don't get the Euros OTS solution from last night. It doesn't seem to match it's 500 map? You think the Miller B scenario is the one we need to fear, not the GL low/Apps runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this is the Day 6 mean; obviously, the storm is moving NE off the coast day 5 is unclear exactly where the mean has it unfortunately http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= 6 hr mslp panels show a miller a. It's farther west than the op but further east than yesterday's ensemble run. Still decent precip on the panels but the max shifted east for obvious reasons.. The 50/50 vortex is still in a favorable spot but I can tell there is more spread now. It's still an encouraging look but not as sweet as yesterday. I suppose we can take some comfort that the track favors more of a graze from the se than something amped and too close at this lead. We still have a lot of days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You think the Miller B scenario is the one we need to fear, not the GL low/Apps runner? What model shows a GL low or Apps runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 06z DGEX is pretty dgex.jpg dgex2.jpg here's the whole run http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You think the Miller B scenario is the one we need to fear, not the GL low/Apps runner? Doesnt the relatively fast flow and overall lower amplitude longwave pattern argue against that? Idk. Maybe someone that knows more than I can chime in. Based on current guidance with the look up in eastern Canada, I would think thats low possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After taking a second look at the mslp means, hr 132 has the lowest pressure centered right off of obx and it tracks ne. The track is off the coast and not benchmark style. I'll take my chances at our latutude with this. Haven't check the ne subforum but I'm pretty sure they aren't thrilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would post the DGEX snowfall map but I don't want people to take it or me seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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