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Feb 8-10 Light snow event that i spent 10 days tracking


Ji

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yesterday's 12z had a cutter.  this 12z has a slow transfer from KY to Hat.  The trend is a net positive so I don't get it either.  Heck, by tomorrows 12z it could be an OTS

 

I was partially Carnac yesterday.  said 12z when it was the 0z GFS that went OTS

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I'm not "giving up", just discussing that model run. Any run which shows the primary to Cleveland and then coastal redevelopment will not have a good outcome for my part of the mid-Atlantic. I am not saying it will evolve that way, but it is certainly in the realm of possible solutions.

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this is the Day 6 mean; obviously, the storm is moving NE off the coast

day 5 is unclear exactly where the mean has it unfortunately

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

thanks for clarifying!!

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Good thing it will not verify.

If you say so. Well within the envelope of possibilites is a primary to Ohio and a transfer that happens too far north for our area. Not predicting it, but noting that you cannot simply dismiss that kind of solution as unlikely. It's quite possible. Wes and Bob (and HM when he pops in here) have written for two days on how if the Baffin block isn't in just right the place and just strong enough that changes things. The other thing which gives me pause are the analogs that Matt keeps referencing. Not a lot of big snows in there, at all. An inch or two analogs don't provide a lot of comfort for my part of the area anyway. Probably looks a lot better out to Winchester and up to Frederick Westminster.

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If you say so. Well within the envelope of possibilites is a primary to Ohio and a transfer that happens too far north for our area. Not predicting it, but noting that you cannot simply dismiss that kind of solution as unlikely. It's quite possible. Wes and Bob (and HM when he pops in here) have written for two days on how if the Baffin block isn't in just right the place and just strong enough that changes things. The other thing which gives me pause are the analogs that Matt keeps referencing. Not a lot of big snows in there, at all. An inch or two analogs don't provide a lot of comfort for my part of the area anyway. Probably looks a lot better out to Winchester and up to Frederick Westminster.

not expecting anything big this weekend. What ever happens deal with it. After mondays fiasco I,m very wary of expectations

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I think the models are playing their typical "day 4-5 disappearing act" with this storm. It'll be back I believe. I know it hasn't completely disappeared but it's changed dramatically. Just a hunch there. These solutions are whacked out it seems.

I agree. Goofy runs for the GFS and Euro last night. 6z GFS... who cares. To me this looks like its shaping up to be a cold storm that should produce some snow. Details like phasing, whether it goes negative tilt etc have yet to be resolved. Generally looks like there will be high pressure in SE Canada, but will there be enough of a block to hold it. Pattern looks progressive, so this may be a case where ideally we get the low south scooting ENE off the Carolina coast. It could be pretty moist based on what we have seen lately, so some heavy snow or snow/sleet looks very possible for MA.

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The Miller b scenario is the one we need to fear. Unless we get a transfer south of OC. I don't get the Euros OTS solution from last night. It doesn't seem to match it's 500 map?

 

You think the Miller B scenario is the one we need to fear, not the GL low/Apps runner?

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this is the Day 6 mean; obviously, the storm is moving NE off the coast

day 5 is unclear exactly where the mean has it unfortunately

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

6 hr mslp panels show a miller a. It's farther west than the op but further east than yesterday's ensemble run. Still decent precip on the panels but the max shifted east for obvious reasons..

The 50/50 vortex is still in a favorable spot but I can tell there is more spread now.

It's still an encouraging look but not as sweet as yesterday. I suppose we can take some comfort that the track favors more of a graze from the se than something amped and too close at this lead. We still have a lot of days to go.

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You think the Miller B scenario is the one we need to fear, not the GL low/Apps runner?

Doesnt the relatively fast flow and overall lower amplitude longwave pattern argue against that? Idk. Maybe someone that knows more than I can chime in. Based on current guidance with the look up in eastern Canada, I would think thats low possibility.

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After taking a second look at the mslp means, hr 132 has the lowest pressure centered right off of obx and it tracks ne. The track is off the coast and not benchmark style. I'll take my chances at our latutude with this. Haven't check the ne subforum but I'm pretty sure they aren't thrilled

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