Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cras is notoriously awful and adds no value to this discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I know It was more of a jokewasn't really replying to u just making a note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cras is notoriously awful and adds no value to this discussioncras nailed the boxing day storm tho...it has its uses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 cras nailed the boxing day storm tho...it has its uses Sigh. Referencing the boxing day storm in these parts is probably not a good move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Richmond see a lot of rain on that run. Try that again, I believe the run you saw only had half the run.. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras90_NA/18/index_ten_m_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sigh. Referencing the boxing day storm in these parts is probably not a good move. yikes I'm sorry....I will go back to the phl dead zone forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Read through the threads. Wntwxluvr and others will get mad if you note issues on specific runs. So, a generic, yup, there's a storm, will suffice. It's ok to say what the model is showing. Knocking the models for being flakey 5-7 days out is kinda ridiculous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 yikes I'm sorry....I will go back to the phl dead zone forum Stick around, I sure don't mind. But if you do, you may want to know that Boxing Day storm was a massive epic bust down here, probably second only to the March 2001 bust. We managed to be the one area that completely missed that storm. So referencing that the CRAS nailed that one isn't bound to make any of us feel warm and fuzzy down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's ok to say what the model is showing. Knocking the models for being flakey 5-7 days out is kinda ridiculous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Stick around, I sure don't mind. But if you do, you may want to know that Boxing Day storm was a massive epic bust down here, probably second only to the March 2001 bust. We managed to be the one area that completely missed that storm. So referencing that the CRAS nailed that one isn't bound to make any of us feel warm and fuzzy down this way.gotcha. I didnt realize bd was such a bust down there :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cras is notoriously awful and adds no value to this discussion Maybe I shouldn't brought it up, just trying to bring some humor to this board...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Maybe I shouldn't brought it up, just trying to bring some humor to this board...... Last year cras posts were only allowed in banter but I have poked a few cras posts into disco this year so I can't really throw rocks at glass houses either. This storm is completely unresolved which makes it fun if you can endure the disaster runs without going into Prozac mode. We have every possible screw job scenario all the way to huge hits on the table. I kinda live for this stuff. The only 2 things I feel ok about saying is that we probably won't get totally blanked with snow and we won't get close to perfect solution but even then...we might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The issue that's worrying me is that the vort is coming in much less diggy and much less south on the last couple of runs - not that we CAN'T score that way, but it makes it much much trickier for us if that's the case. We keep dismissing these as "weird runs", but much of the guidance seems to be trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Models are having a tough time figuring out how to eject the energy in the NW CONUS. Until they get a better grasp on how that energy will come East, we won't have a clue how the storm will transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 FWIW the NAM @ 78 hours has a very good look to it. The shortwave taking place out west @ 78 hours isn't as robust as the 6z GFS was, there's very good confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 we have a pretty good idea...and it will involve a lot of rain or a miss for us and 40N getting nailed...it is becoming pretty clear.. If there is uncertainty or small room for error, we will lose 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thanks Debbie Downer. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It is Deb, but that is the best call. You won't get your hopes up. Just think rain and anything else is a bonus. That is what I usually do and it keeps me from letting snow turn me into a baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This could be one of the most epic weeks of Feb rain on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 cras nailed the boxing day storm tho...it has its uses When the heck did it become okay to start posting/discussing the CRAS and DGEX again? They have no (practical) use. None. Zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 we have a pretty good idea...and it will involve a lot of rain or a miss for us and 40N getting nailed...it is becoming pretty clear.. And thankfully you will track it till the bitter rainy end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This could be one of the most epic weeks of Feb rain on record. Yeah and if you go back to that Euro eps control run that went viral last week, take the 40" of snow it gave us for the first 10 days of the month, and using 10:1 ratio, 4 inches of rain is about right. Other than temps, nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm just happy the models haven't locked into a really bad solution yet. Still in the game baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And thankfully you will track it till the bitter rainy end Nah, today's 12z runs will bring back the snowy runs and we will rejoice... only to be crushed tonight in the 00z runs which will bring rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nah, today's 12z runs will bring back the snowy runs and we will rejoice... only to be crushed tonight in the 00z runs which will bring rain Rinse and repeat until the last few runs show snow until the very last run that shows 38 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This could be one of the most epic weeks of Feb rain on record. Spring will be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You think the Miller B scenario is the one we need to fear, not the GL low/Apps runner? If its not gonna be a Miller A. I would almost rather have it run way west. As long as we have some cold air entrenched. We can steal some overrun with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I do not know why everyone is down... it is still over 5 days away. I have been very happy with the winter so far. I have had 3 5+ inches storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I do not know why everyone is down... it is still over 5 days away. I have been very happy with the winter so far. I have had 3 5+ inches storms I've had two 5"+ storms this year, so I'm good. That said, DC has not and DC weather drives the mood of the board overlords Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I do not know why everyone is down... it is still over 5 days away. I have been very happy with the winter so far. I have had 3 5+ inches storms If you live SE of I-95 you know why we are down. It most likely won't work out here. However I am still positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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