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Feb 8-10 Light snow event that i spent 10 days tracking


Ji

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well probably hate the euro tonight

 

we are highly dependent on the -NAO and 50-50 because the default mechanism is to drive a storm to our west...and if that doesn't work go as far as you can go and then pop a secondary...and if that doesn't work try to go up our gut....a low in this pattern is only going to go to our south if it has no other choice...as a last resort...there is serviceable surface high...there is no real split flow....and there are still a lot of moving parts...and there are a lot of analogs that aren't very impressive, and a new one showing up a couple times, that if you saw the GFS run, is hardly surprising...2-24-10...I'm expecting a very imperfect flawed event for me...lucky for you, you live pretty far wnw...

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we are highly dependent on the -NAO and 50-50 because the default mechanism is to drive a storm to our west...and if that doesn't work go as far as you can go and then pop a secondary...and if that doesn't work try to go up our gut....a low in this pattern is only going to go to our south if it has no other choice...as a last resort...there is serviceable surface high...there is no real split flow....and there are still a lot of moving parts...and there are a lot of analogs that aren't very impressive, and a new one showing up a couple times, that if you saw the GFS run, is hardly surprising...2-24-10...I'm expecting a very imperfect flawed event for me...lucky for you, you live pretty far wnw...

All that said, this better be a good run.  I'm running on fumes.  

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Wow, even too far south for RIC?

 

RIC gets fringed ... with rain.  It's not that far off from snow, though.

 

It's a huge change from prior runs, so I don't know what to make of it.  Toss it for now.  Not sure I buy the double lows...

 

EDIT: Actually, I guess you guys get a little snow from the second low at around day 6.

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it has a wacky solution....2 related pieces..both duds....maybe 1" from each....it doesnt have its act together at all which isnt surprising given that the pattern isnt really supportive of a decent storm unless we get lucky

 

 

I only have 24 hours inc-- so wow to 2 lows in the exact spot 24 hours out. 

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6z GFS has the storm after the unicorn.

 

I won't comment on the specifics of the unicorn on the 6z GFS as people seem to think talking about model runs is bad form. 

I will... It is like 1.5 QPF.. maybe a little rain to start off.. there is a low that tracks up to lake erie and then a secondary coastal forms.  I guess that is not great for us... but verbatim it snows pretty hard.  

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