Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 i actually enjoy modeled snow more than real snow now that i have kids...so i can recover from busts much quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 GGEM has the Feb 12-13 storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 well probably hate the euro tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GEFS mean wants nothing to do with the random bomb Day 9 and 10 that appeared on the OP run tonight And are meh for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GEFS mean wants nothing to do with the random bomb Day 9 and 10 that appeared on the OP run tonight Can we worry about one storm at a time? What do they say about Sunday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 well probably hate the euro tonight we are highly dependent on the -NAO and 50-50 because the default mechanism is to drive a storm to our west...and if that doesn't work go as far as you can go and then pop a secondary...and if that doesn't work try to go up our gut....a low in this pattern is only going to go to our south if it has no other choice...as a last resort...there is serviceable surface high...there is no real split flow....and there are still a lot of moving parts...and there are a lot of analogs that aren't very impressive, and a new one showing up a couple times, that if you saw the GFS run, is hardly surprising...2-24-10...I'm expecting a very imperfect flawed event for me...lucky for you, you live pretty far wnw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 we are highly dependent on the -NAO and 50-50 because the default mechanism is to drive a storm to our west...and if that doesn't work go as far as you can go and then pop a secondary...and if that doesn't work try to go up our gut....a low in this pattern is only going to go to our south if it has no other choice...as a last resort...there is serviceable surface high...there is no real split flow....and there are still a lot of moving parts...and there are a lot of analogs that aren't very impressive, and a new one showing up a couple times, that if you saw the GFS run, is hardly surprising...2-24-10...I'm expecting a very imperfect flawed event for me...lucky for you, you live pretty far wnw... All that said, this better be a good run. I'm running on fumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You can hear a pindrop in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You can hear a pindrop in here No kidding... and we are waiting up for one model run for a storm still 5-6 days away... we have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Definitely WAY south of the 00z. Goes off the coast and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You can hear a pindrop in here it has a wacky solution....2 related pieces..both duds....maybe 1" from each....it doesnt have its act together at all which isnt surprising given that the pattern isnt really supportive of a decent storm unless we get lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it has a wacky solution....2 discrete storms...both duds....1" from each....it doesnt have its act together at all which isnt surprising given that the pattern isnt really supportive of a decent storm unless we get lucky NIght Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pen!s Wand attack is felt. Delayed reaction. a good night of sleep and everyone will be back tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, even too far south for RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, even too far south for RIC? RIC gets fringed ... with rain. It's not that far off from snow, though. It's a huge change from prior runs, so I don't know what to make of it. Toss it for now. Not sure I buy the double lows... EDIT: Actually, I guess you guys get a little snow from the second low at around day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, even too far south for RIC? it's a weird double low thing that you see on modeling that never usually comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it has a wacky solution....2 related pieces..both duds....maybe 1" from each....it doesnt have its act together at all which isnt surprising given that the pattern isnt really supportive of a decent storm unless we get lucky I only have 24 hours inc-- so wow to 2 lows in the exact spot 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 for DC the 2nd piece gives us more like 2-3"....the 1st 1" or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 no cold air south of MD.. geesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I only have 24 hours inc-- so wow to 2 lows in the exact spot 24 hours out. pretty much....not even 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs found the storm, 850s look ok for dc and it's quite moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 a lot of moisture with the sunday storm and it becomes negatively tilted over the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z GFS has the storm after the unicorn. I won't comment on the specifics of the unicorn on the 6z GFS as people seem to think talking about model runs is bad form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z GFS has the storm after the unicorn. I won't comment on the specifics of the unicorn on the 6z GFS as people seem to think talking about model runs is bad form. HUH?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HUH?? Read through the threads. Wntwxluvr and others will get mad if you note issues on specific runs. So, a generic, yup, there's a storm, will suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z GFS has the storm after the unicorn. I won't comment on the specifics of the unicorn on the 6z GFS as people seem to think talking about model runs is bad form. I will... It is like 1.5 QPF.. maybe a little rain to start off.. there is a low that tracks up to lake erie and then a secondary coastal forms. I guess that is not great for us... but verbatim it snows pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Read through the threads. Wntwxluvr and others will get mad if you note issues on specific runs. So, a generic, yup, there's a storm, will suffice. no thanks , I'll accept your word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I will... It is like 1.5 QPF.. maybe a little rain to start off.. there is a low that tracks up to lake erie and then a secondary coastal forms. I guess that is not great for us... but verbatim it snows pretty hard. were back to that scenario , again.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the models are playing their typical "day 4-5 disappearing act" with this storm. It'll be back I believe. I know it hasn't completely disappeared but it's changed dramatically. Just a hunch there. These solutions are whacked out it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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