mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 are you indicating a coastal ?? this is the Day 6 mean; obviously, the storm is moving NE off the coast day 5 is unclear exactly where the mean has it unfortunately http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this is the Day 6 mean; obviously, the storm is moving NE off the coast day 5 is unclear exactly where the mean has it unfortunately http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= thanks for clarifying!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs is basically rain...BL temps are hot despite all other levels below...looks like what just happened on monday Good thing it will not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good thing it will not verify. If you say so. Well within the envelope of possibilites is a primary to Ohio and a transfer that happens too far north for our area. Not predicting it, but noting that you cannot simply dismiss that kind of solution as unlikely. It's quite possible. Wes and Bob (and HM when he pops in here) have written for two days on how if the Baffin block isn't in just right the place and just strong enough that changes things. The other thing which gives me pause are the analogs that Matt keeps referencing. Not a lot of big snows in there, at all. An inch or two analogs don't provide a lot of comfort for my part of the area anyway. Probably looks a lot better out to Winchester and up to Frederick Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If you say so. Well within the envelope of possibilites is a primary to Ohio and a transfer that happens too far north for our area. Not predicting it, but noting that you cannot simply dismiss that kind of solution as unlikely. It's quite possible. Wes and Bob (and HM when he pops in here) have written for two days on how if the Baffin block isn't in just right the place and just strong enough that changes things. The other thing which gives me pause are the analogs that Matt keeps referencing. Not a lot of big snows in there, at all. An inch or two analogs don't provide a lot of comfort for my part of the area anyway. Probably looks a lot better out to Winchester and up to Frederick Westminster. not expecting anything big this weekend. What ever happens deal with it. After mondays fiasco I,m very wary of expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the models are playing their typical "day 4-5 disappearing act" with this storm. It'll be back I believe. I know it hasn't completely disappeared but it's changed dramatically. Just a hunch there. These solutions are whacked out it seems. I agree. Goofy runs for the GFS and Euro last night. 6z GFS... who cares. To me this looks like its shaping up to be a cold storm that should produce some snow. Details like phasing, whether it goes negative tilt etc have yet to be resolved. Generally looks like there will be high pressure in SE Canada, but will there be enough of a block to hold it. Pattern looks progressive, so this may be a case where ideally we get the low south scooting ENE off the Carolina coast. It could be pretty moist based on what we have seen lately, so some heavy snow or snow/sleet looks very possible for MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 06z DGEX is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The Miller b scenario is the one we need to fear. Unless we get a transfer south of OC. I don't get the Euros OTS solution from last night. It doesn't seem to match it's 500 map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 06z DGEX is pretty dgex.jpg dgex2.jpg Too bad its the DGEX , but I like that general scenario as a possible outcome for this storm. I guess I am optimistic this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The Miller b scenario is the one we need to fear. Unless we get a transfer south of OC. I don't get the Euros OTS solution from last night. It doesn't seem to match it's 500 map? You think the Miller B scenario is the one we need to fear, not the GL low/Apps runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this is the Day 6 mean; obviously, the storm is moving NE off the coast day 5 is unclear exactly where the mean has it unfortunately http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= 6 hr mslp panels show a miller a. It's farther west than the op but further east than yesterday's ensemble run. Still decent precip on the panels but the max shifted east for obvious reasons.. The 50/50 vortex is still in a favorable spot but I can tell there is more spread now. It's still an encouraging look but not as sweet as yesterday. I suppose we can take some comfort that the track favors more of a graze from the se than something amped and too close at this lead. We still have a lot of days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You think the Miller B scenario is the one we need to fear, not the GL low/Apps runner? What model shows a GL low or Apps runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 06z DGEX is pretty dgex.jpg dgex2.jpg here's the whole run http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You think the Miller B scenario is the one we need to fear, not the GL low/Apps runner? Doesnt the relatively fast flow and overall lower amplitude longwave pattern argue against that? Idk. Maybe someone that knows more than I can chime in. Based on current guidance with the look up in eastern Canada, I would think thats low possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After taking a second look at the mslp means, hr 132 has the lowest pressure centered right off of obx and it tracks ne. The track is off the coast and not benchmark style. I'll take my chances at our latutude with this. Haven't check the ne subforum but I'm pretty sure they aren't thrilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would post the DGEX snowfall map but I don't want people to take it or me seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Doesnt the relatively fast flow and overall lower amplitude longwave pattern argue against that? Idk. Maybe someone that knows more than I can chime in. Based on current guidance with the look up in eastern Canada, I would think thats low possibility. Yes, that solution is probably the least likely...the biggest way we get screwed is the storm really never develops or its a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After taking a second look at the mslp means, hr 132 has the lowest pressure centered right off of obx and it tracks ne. The track is off the coast and not benchmark style. I'll take my chances at our latutude with this. Haven't check the ne subforum but I'm pretty sure they aren't thrilled Thats the scenario I mentioned a few posts up. I think that is ideal in this set up and I would take it given the other possibilities. Dont need a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would post the DGEX snowfall map but I don't want people to take it or me seriously. No one takes it too seriously and I already posted it above. And someone did yesterday too. I bet you have a better and more detailed map that shows 20 inches or so? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thats the scenario I mentioned a few posts up. I think that is ideal in this set up and I would take it given the other possibilities. Dont need a KU. I'm totally happy wirh it. KU requires a perfect dance with transient features. It's a good run. I cant view the ind member precip charts from my phone for some reason. I'll post later when I get to a pc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is total snowfall from 84-192. Please don't rip me though the amounts are down from yesterday or the day before, the concentration of snowfall continues to be the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Question for anyone--IF this bombs out around OBX and rides NE, wouldn't that also help generate its own cold air flow from the N/NE? Keep rain potential to almost non-exsistent? Thanks for reading. Always still learning in this sometimes painful hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Question for anyone--IF this bombs out around OBX and rides NE, wouldn't that also help generate its own cold air flow from the N/NE? Keep rain potential to almost non-exsistent? Thanks for reading. Always still learning in this sometimes painful hobby.If the track from ga/sc/obx happens like the EPS mean is advertising verifies then rain is a minor worry at best. If the primary tracks West of us we just have to hope it never makes it an inch out of Kentucky. I'm just going to worry about a storm impacting the area first and foremost. The risk of whiffing south is on the table as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Anyone have the CRAS model.... I don't even know how far it goes out, but I am interested in seeing it, since it did predict the last couple of storms before all others. Many joke about the CRAS but its sorta like a cult figure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not sure what's going to be worse-- no storm or ANOTHER storm that's too warm down here. Over the past 35 days, we are running a -5 temp and a +2 precipitation with 2 inches of snow. Seems clear with all the moving parts we won't get a general idea for a while. I mean, for a while time frame was Friday- Saturday. Still concerned about the poor analogs that are showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the track from ga/sc/obx happens like the EPS mean is advertising verifies then rain is a minor worry at best. If the primary tracks West of us we just have to hope it never makes it an inch out of Kentucky. I'm just going to worry about a storm impacting the area first and foremost. The risk of whiffing south is on the table as well. That makes sense Professor Chill. Thanks. I agree. Need a storm first and foremost. Details can be ironed out late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Long Term CRAS. lol http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras90_NA/18/index_ten_m_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Long Term CRAS. lol http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras90_NA/18/index_ten_m_loop.html I'll take that run ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll take that run ! Richmond see a lot of rain on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cras is notoriously warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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