AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it has a wacky solution....2 discrete storms...both duds....1" from each....it doesnt have its act together at all which isnt surprising given that the pattern isnt really supportive of a decent storm unless we get lucky NIght Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pen!s Wand attack is felt. Delayed reaction. a good night of sleep and everyone will be back tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, even too far south for RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, even too far south for RIC? RIC gets fringed ... with rain. It's not that far off from snow, though. It's a huge change from prior runs, so I don't know what to make of it. Toss it for now. Not sure I buy the double lows... EDIT: Actually, I guess you guys get a little snow from the second low at around day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it has a wacky solution....2 related pieces..both duds....maybe 1" from each....it doesnt have its act together at all which isnt surprising given that the pattern isnt really supportive of a decent storm unless we get lucky I only have 24 hours inc-- so wow to 2 lows in the exact spot 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 no cold air south of MD.. geesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs found the storm, 850s look ok for dc and it's quite moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 a lot of moisture with the sunday storm and it becomes negatively tilted over the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z GFS has the storm after the unicorn. I won't comment on the specifics of the unicorn on the 6z GFS as people seem to think talking about model runs is bad form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z GFS has the storm after the unicorn. I won't comment on the specifics of the unicorn on the 6z GFS as people seem to think talking about model runs is bad form. HUH?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HUH?? Read through the threads. Wntwxluvr and others will get mad if you note issues on specific runs. So, a generic, yup, there's a storm, will suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z GFS has the storm after the unicorn. I won't comment on the specifics of the unicorn on the 6z GFS as people seem to think talking about model runs is bad form. I will... It is like 1.5 QPF.. maybe a little rain to start off.. there is a low that tracks up to lake erie and then a secondary coastal forms. I guess that is not great for us... but verbatim it snows pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Read through the threads. Wntwxluvr and others will get mad if you note issues on specific runs. So, a generic, yup, there's a storm, will suffice. no thanks , I'll accept your word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I will... It is like 1.5 QPF.. maybe a little rain to start off.. there is a low that tracks up to lake erie and then a secondary coastal forms. I guess that is not great for us... but verbatim it snows pretty hard. were back to that scenario , again.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the models are playing their typical "day 4-5 disappearing act" with this storm. It'll be back I believe. I know it hasn't completely disappeared but it's changed dramatically. Just a hunch there. These solutions are whacked out it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 yesterday's 12z had a cutter. this 12z has a slow transfer from KY to Hat. The trend is a net positive so I don't get it either. Heck, by tomorrows 12z it could be an OTS I was partially Carnac yesterday. said 12z when it was the 0z GFS that went OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HPC nailed it with "details are fuzzy"....bet 12Z GFS will look nothing like 6Z...just a hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs is basically rain...BL temps are hot despite all other levels below...looks like what just happened on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HPC nailed it with "details are fuzzy"....bet 12Z GFS will look nothing like 6Z...just a hunch hell not surprised after monday bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs is basically rain...BL temps are hot despite all other levels below...looks like what just happened on monday I,ve seen heavy snow at 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we're in an ok spot with some other guidance being colder and s and e with slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I,ve seen heavy snow at 38. No doubt...good luck ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 edit: n/m, the chart didnt paste well. 850-925 temps crash, who knows when the bulk of that precip falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 would prefer the 00Z version of this story....weaker and bit colder in upper levels...if you don't have at least the first blue line overhead at 850 it's time to panic...purple don't cut it most times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we're in an ok spot with some other guidance being colder and s and e with slp. Since you are in Philly, I agree, you are probably ok no matter if the primary drives to ohio or not. Down here, that isn't such a great look for us. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Since you are in Philly, I agree, you are probably ok no matter if the primary drives to ohio or not. Down here, that isn't such a great look for us. Sent from my iPhone you're definitely still in the game down there with this....don't give up yet its very early in the game...we're due for a DC-Bos MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not "giving up", just discussing that model run. Any run which shows the primary to Cleveland and then coastal redevelopment will not have a good outcome for my part of the mid-Atlantic. I am not saying it will evolve that way, but it is certainly in the realm of possible solutions. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't have the detailed maps, but the Euro ensembles are decently west of the operational maybe when Bob gets on the scene he could provide details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't have the detailed maps, but the Euro ensembles are decently west of the operational maybe when Bob gets on the scene he could provide detail are you indicating a coastal ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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