Amped Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Before every storm we get, good runs, bad runs and crazy runs. This one is definitely the latter of the three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You know your odds just increased when a brand new and jacked up solution dumps on you. It's s harbinger. Euro is going to black out the sun. I'm staying up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Miller G's are usually better for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 DT says the GFS finally shows a solution that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS trying to pull a PDI clone at 228hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 WTF 240 and 252... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the 2nd storm was colder this will be better than feb 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the 2nd storm was colder this will be better than feb 2010 Im not sure you can get better than Feb 2010...we may never see that in our lifetime again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll take my chances with a sub 1k off obx in Feb any day. 2010 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z GGEM gives us no love tonight through 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z GGEM gives us no love tonight through 144 a little early for GGEM isn't it? or do you have it off a pay site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Believes in Unicorns - gfs euro Doesn't believe in unicorns - ggem Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z GGEM gives us no love tonight through 144 You mean the perfect track rainer changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 a little early for GGEM isn't it? or do you have it off a pay site The crappy black and white maps I already have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ji what about the jma? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You mean the perfect track rainer changed? Yes... it changed to a perfect track of nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Im not sure you can get better than Feb 2010...we may never see that in our lifetime again. 1899 was better than feb 2010. So maybe every 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The crappy black and white maps I already have it has a storm....just on day 5 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif it's off the coast, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it has a storm....just on day 5 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif Heads NE at 144 out to sea however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Heads NE at 144 out to sea however yeah, I added that, but that's our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just when we thought there was "general" overall agreement...If EURO backs off, weenies will be on the plank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 people are expecting too much from a model at 6-7 days out. maybe some of you guys should write the formulas that go into it. the setup is there. expecting details this far out is irrational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 people are expecting too much from a model at 6-7 days out. maybe some of you guys should write the formulas that go into it. the setup is there. expecting details this far out is irrational. you expect too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 people are expecting too much from a model at 6-7 days out. maybe some of you guys should write the formulas that go into it. the setup is there. expecting details this far out is irrational. Im not expecting to figure out details but Im at least expecting it to stick to an overall large storm idea...not do something wacky like the GFS did or almost essentially lose the storm like the GGEM just did but hey I guess thats too much to ask too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 you expect too much lol probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Im not expecting to figure out details but Im at least expecting it to stick to an overall large storm idea...not do something wacky like the GFS did or almost essentially lose the storm like the GGEM just did but hey I guess thats too much to ask too to be fair, GGEM didn't really lose it, it just keeps it off shore what's 75-100 miles over 5 days? not bad really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The gfs shift at h5 early in the run was huge. You could see big changes down the line setting at like 84 hours. That is a short lead swing. The vort ejected a piece into the mw and was too weak to dig. The run should be put on the shelf for now. It either picked up on something important or made a random left turn that will correct next run. I expect the Euro hold serve with a deep dig and strong vort. And present new fears with the 50/50 placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was it ever figured out if the GFS initialization was the actual problem of it being behind the Euro in verification scores? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You know your odds just increased when a brand new and jacked up solution dumps on you. It's s harbinger. Euro is going to black out the sun. I'm staying up So am I..and i'm so damn tired from the wasted time spent tracking last night's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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