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Feb 8-10 Light snow event that i spent 10 days tracking


Ji

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people are expecting too much from a model at 6-7 days out.  maybe some of you guys should write the formulas that go into it.  the setup is there.  expecting details this far out is irrational.

Im not expecting to figure out details but Im at least expecting it to stick to an overall large storm idea...not do something wacky like the GFS did or almost essentially lose the storm like the GGEM just did but hey I guess thats too much to ask too

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Im not expecting to figure out details but Im at least expecting it to stick to an overall large storm idea...not do something wacky like the GFS did or almost essentially lose the storm like the GGEM just did but hey I guess thats too much to ask too

to be fair, GGEM didn't really lose it, it just keeps it off shore

what's 75-100 miles over 5 days? not bad really

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The gfs shift at h5 early in the run was huge. You could see big changes down the line setting at like 84 hours. That is a short lead swing. The vort ejected a piece into the mw and was too weak to dig. The run should be put on the shelf for now. It either picked up on something important or made a random left turn that will correct next run. I expect the Euro hold serve with a deep dig and strong vort. And present new fears with the 50/50 placement

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