Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll take my chances with a sub 1k off obx in Feb any day. 2010 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z GGEM gives us no love tonight through 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z GGEM gives us no love tonight through 144 a little early for GGEM isn't it? or do you have it off a pay site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Believes in Unicorns - gfs euro Doesn't believe in unicorns - ggem Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z GGEM gives us no love tonight through 144 You mean the perfect track rainer changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 a little early for GGEM isn't it? or do you have it off a pay site The crappy black and white maps I already have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ji what about the jma? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You mean the perfect track rainer changed? Yes... it changed to a perfect track of nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Im not sure you can get better than Feb 2010...we may never see that in our lifetime again. 1899 was better than feb 2010. So maybe every 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The crappy black and white maps I already have it has a storm....just on day 5 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif it's off the coast, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it has a storm....just on day 5 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif Heads NE at 144 out to sea however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Heads NE at 144 out to sea however yeah, I added that, but that's our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just when we thought there was "general" overall agreement...If EURO backs off, weenies will be on the plank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 people are expecting too much from a model at 6-7 days out. maybe some of you guys should write the formulas that go into it. the setup is there. expecting details this far out is irrational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 people are expecting too much from a model at 6-7 days out. maybe some of you guys should write the formulas that go into it. the setup is there. expecting details this far out is irrational. you expect too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 people are expecting too much from a model at 6-7 days out. maybe some of you guys should write the formulas that go into it. the setup is there. expecting details this far out is irrational. Im not expecting to figure out details but Im at least expecting it to stick to an overall large storm idea...not do something wacky like the GFS did or almost essentially lose the storm like the GGEM just did but hey I guess thats too much to ask too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 you expect too much lol probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Im not expecting to figure out details but Im at least expecting it to stick to an overall large storm idea...not do something wacky like the GFS did or almost essentially lose the storm like the GGEM just did but hey I guess thats too much to ask too to be fair, GGEM didn't really lose it, it just keeps it off shore what's 75-100 miles over 5 days? not bad really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The gfs shift at h5 early in the run was huge. You could see big changes down the line setting at like 84 hours. That is a short lead swing. The vort ejected a piece into the mw and was too weak to dig. The run should be put on the shelf for now. It either picked up on something important or made a random left turn that will correct next run. I expect the Euro hold serve with a deep dig and strong vort. And present new fears with the 50/50 placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was it ever figured out if the GFS initialization was the actual problem of it being behind the Euro in verification scores? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You know your odds just increased when a brand new and jacked up solution dumps on you. It's s harbinger. Euro is going to black out the sun. I'm staying up So am I..and i'm so damn tired from the wasted time spent tracking last night's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 i actually enjoy modeled snow more than real snow now that i have kids...so i can recover from busts much quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 GGEM has the Feb 12-13 storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 well probably hate the euro tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GEFS mean wants nothing to do with the random bomb Day 9 and 10 that appeared on the OP run tonight And are meh for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GEFS mean wants nothing to do with the random bomb Day 9 and 10 that appeared on the OP run tonight Can we worry about one storm at a time? What do they say about Sunday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 we are highly dependent on the -NAO and 50-50 because the default mechanism is to drive a storm to our west...and if that doesn't work go as far as you can go and then pop a secondary...and if that doesn't work try to go up our gut....a low in this pattern is only going to go to our south if it has no other choice...as a last resort...there is serviceable surface high...there is no real split flow....and there are still a lot of moving parts...and there are a lot of analogs that aren't very impressive, and a new one showing up a couple times, that if you saw the GFS run, is hardly surprising...2-24-10...I'm expecting a very imperfect flawed event for me...lucky for you, you live pretty far wnw... All that said, this better be a good run. I'm running on fumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You can hear a pindrop in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You can hear a pindrop in here No kidding... and we are waiting up for one model run for a storm still 5-6 days away... we have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Definitely WAY south of the 00z. Goes off the coast and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.