84 Hour NAM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We're going to win this on the river card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We need at least a 200-mile buffer. But you know what's funny? Some people were getting all excited about the look of the 12z Euro, which looked to produce a general 8-12" storm (higher amounts in places, I'm sure). But while those of us closer to DC and east would be elated with that, many of our sub-forum brethren have already had a storm or two with those totals. And funny enough, those people (and that 83Gizzards joker) barely even bothered with that run. We suck. One storm with that total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 One storm with that total Stop being happy about your snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 even if DCA gets no more snow, 8.1" is pretty standard fare.....I'm not sure we suck more than we used to...I think we just suck Take out the 5 oddball 30"+ inch seasons at DCA over the past 40 years and it averages 11.1", so yeah it's pretty standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 even if DCA gets no more snow, 8.1" is pretty standard fare.....I'm not sure we suck more than we used to...I think we just suckI think we suck more than we used to as well. My article should finally find the publish button soon. It's one spot and I'm already considering doing like a 20 site study of the NE but the evidence is pretty compelling. The least impact is seen in the core of winter and that's partly because of our recent more packed than usual run of rare events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Stop being happy about your snow! Did you see the super adorable pics of K eating snow earlier? And I made her a snowman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take out the 5 or 6 oddball 30"+ inch seasons at DCA over the past 40 years and it averages 11.1", so yeah it's pretty standard. plus models are just models...There is really no such thing as a bust...just poor modeling...I am sure if we had models 50 years ago, there would have been plenty of random 12"+ storms on the models that never materialized....I'm sure there is some 3.1" storm in some random winter like 1952-53 that was a HECS on a model....There are plenty of current pattern analogs that produced very little or nothing....becoming model addicts has created this notion that we bust or underperform all the time...There is no question the 20-25" winter has disappeared and that our climo has become a bit more richmond-esque, but we tend to hyperbolize everything....I know the models aren't designed to show impossible solutions...but they sure do show quite a lot of solutions that are climatologically improbable from outside their money range...and it is probably our fault that we bite at them.....I remember 5-6 years ago we never looked at models past 168 hours...now we routinely look at 300 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Did you see the super adorable pics of K eating snow earlier? And I made her a snowman I did, but I was at work, where I can't reply to forums. So f'ing annoying. Yeah...those pics were absolutely heart-melting! The B has eaten snow, and she loved it! But she refuses to walk, so we can't let her down in the snow yet (that is, when we actually have snow on the ground). On-topic: Maybe the girls can eat more snow this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 most if not all of this subforum lies below 40n tho And above 39.99. Signed, Sour Richmonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Event extended (area). Winter Storm Watch from 2/4/2014 7:00 PM to 2/5/2014 1:00 PM EST for Montgomery County, Howard County, Southern Baltimore County, Harford County, Shenandoah County, Page County, Warren County, Clarke County Rappahannock County, Loudon County, Northern Fauquier County. More information. Wrong thread sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 plus models are just models...There is really no such thing as a bust...just poor modeling...I am sure if we had models 50 years ago, there would have been plenty of random 12"+ storms on the models that never materialized....I'm sure there is some 3.1" storm in some random winter like 1952-53 that was a HECS on a model....There are plenty of current pattern analogs that produced very little or nothing....becoming model addicts has created this notion that we bust or underperform all the time...There is no question the 20-25" winter has disappeared and that our climo has become a bit more richmond-esque, but we tend to hyperbolize everything....I know the models aren't designed to show impossible solutions...but they sure do show quite a lot of solutions that are climatologically improbable from outside their money range...and it is probably our fault that we bite at them.....I remember 5-6 years ago we never looked at models past 168 hours...now we routinely look at 300 hours.... though I agree with most of what you say, the fact is we've lost all flukes of consequence and have failed to capitalize in decent patterns save 10 days in 12/09 and 11 days from 1/30/10-2/10/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wrong thread sir! Crud, I'm sorry all. I'm half asleep in bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Is it ever possible to stop complaining about how wrong the models are for a storm that's still six days away? Or at least start a separate Crystal Ball thread for the people who already know how a storm is going to turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Tracking a storm 6 days out. Smh Posting about tracking a storm while syh, smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 why specifically? i think odds are in favor of us not getting a hecs. i haven't totally followed the rest of the discussion. we all know you don't want to bullseye at this range, but models keep spitting out interesting scenarios despite what's wrong with the pattern. honestly.. rain would be fine with me as it fits the larger argument that dc sucks more than it used to when it comes to snow. Why? I honestly think our forum has become littered with people who think if they bad mouth a storm enough it just might work out for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 though I agree with most of what you say, the fact is we've lost all flukes of consequence and have failed to capitalize in decent patterns save 10 days in 12/09 and 11 days from 1/30/10-2/10/10 MItch, none of the patterns since 2009-2010 have been anything close to being as good as that pattern was. I was super-bullish on the pattern and haven't been since so I think matt is right. people have unrealistic expectations of snowfall around here. We really haven't had a southern stream with strong blocking since then. We've had blocking in a nina year giving us crappy tracks but last year the last two years the patterns have never really been good in the heat of winter. The best pattern last year was in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We're going to win this on the river card You can say that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 plus models are just models...There is really no such thing as a bust...just poor modeling...I am sure if we had models 50 years ago, there would have been plenty of random 12"+ storms on the models that never materialized....I'm sure there is some 3.1" storm in some random winter like 1952-53 that was a HECS on a model....There are plenty of current pattern analogs that produced very little or nothing....becoming model addicts has created this notion that we bust or underperform all the time...There is no question the 20-25" winter has disappeared and that our climo has become a bit more richmond-esque, but we tend to hyperbolize everything....I know the models aren't designed to show impossible solutions...but they sure do show quite a lot of solutions that are climatologically improbable from outside their money range...and it is probably our fault that we bite at them.....I remember 5-6 years ago we never looked at models past 168 hours...now we routinely look at 300 hours.... Great post. There are model busts but storms are whatever they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wrong thread sir! He's trying to recover from the Dec 8 bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why? I honestly think our forum has become littered with people who think if they bad mouth a storm enough it just might work out for them. Maybe, but Ian's gut has good chance of being right. The cold air holding in with a good track is dependent on the vortex near Nova Scotia and if you look at the GFS and Euro today, there handling of that feature was hugely different. To get a good track we need the vortex to stay as strong as it was on the euro run while also more or less staying put. That can happen but most times will not without a big block over Greenland and the southern portions of the Baffin Bay area. We have a really weak transient block trying to anchor that important vortex. It might work out, but there is a good chance it won't. Some of the 18Z GEFS members still had a cutter while others tracked the low to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That would be a wild snow and ice event down here-- I'd take that over the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Maybe, but Ian's gut has good chance of being right. The cold air holding in with a good track is dependent on the vortex near Nova Scotia and if you look at the GFS and Euro today, there handling of that feature was hugely different. To get a good track we need the vortex to stay as strong as it was on the euro run while also more or less staying put. That can happen but most times will not without a big block over Greenland and the southern portions of the Baffin Bay area. We have a really weak transient block trying to anchor that important vortex. It might work out, but there is a good chance it won't. Some of the 18Z GEFS members still had a cutter while others tracked the low to our south. I wasn't even thinking of Ian. When he posts there's reasoning behind it. I'm proud that I don't get emotionally tied up in this stuff. The weather is going to do what it's going to do. The only way to be disappointed is to sit around thinking what if. Sooner or later there's going to be a good storm region wide. Might as well be this Sunday. Also, we just had a good storm on 1/21. Others to the east got a good one last week. It's a better year than the last two. Plenty to be positive about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Also, don't rule out a lead shortwave on the 7th. Models are currently keeping it in the Carolinas, but they were doing that with today's storm also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wasn't even thinking of Ian. When he posts there's reasoning behind it. I'm proud that I don't get emotionally tied up in this stuff. The weather is going to do what it's going to do. The only way to be disappointed is to sit around thinking what if. Sooner or later there's going to be a good storm region wide. Might as well be this Sunday. Also, we just had a good storm on 1/21. Others to the east got a good one last week. It's a better year than the last two. Plenty to be positive about. If the beltway cared about anyone outside of the beltway then that would be a good argument. One decent event is not enough to be positive about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the beltway cared about anyone outside of the beltway then that would be a good argument. One decent event is not enough to be positive about. Well just keeping rolling around in your misery then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well just keeping rolling around in your misery then. This isn't just my opinion. I'm obviously not as miserable as two years prior, but this is still a depressing winter. We've busted two WSW and two fairly good patterns. Can't even seem to manage to get some FRZA tomorrow night. We just lost 1.5" to rain man. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This isn't just my opinion. I'm obviously not as miserable as two years prior, but this is still a depressing winter. We've busted two WSW and two fairly good patterns. Can't even seem to manage to get some FRZA tomorrow night. We just lost 1.5" to rain man. Sucks. You put unrealistic expectations on every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wasn't even thinking of Ian. When he posts there's reasoning behind it. I'm proud that I don't get emotionally tied up in this stuff. The weather is going to do what it's going to do. The only way to be disappointed is to sit around thinking what if. Sooner or later there's going to be a good storm region wide. Might as well be this Sunday. Also, we just had a good storm on 1/21. Others to the east got a good one last week. It's a better year than the last two. Plenty to be positive about. I'm happy with it. I've had 13.7" so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You put unrealistic expectations on every storm.Not going to totally deny that, because it is often true. Even so, I've busted two WSW and lost around two "best patterns in years".I'm moving myself to banter thread, cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This isn't just my opinion. I'm obviously not as miserable as two years prior, but this is still a depressing winter. We've busted two WSW and two fairly good patterns. Can't even seem to manage to get some FRZA tomorrow night. We just lost 1.5" to rain man. Sucks. People keep saying that but we didn't. Folks in the desolate mountains of n'ern md or phily or nyc may cash in with today's storm but we were never meant to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.