SNO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 i think sometimes we need to let a pattern run it's course, like this latest one. maybe next week will provide more options. mid-february can be a diesel period for us. Then we will be "trucking" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 It did. But for now this run looks great. Lets hug it. does look good but we have to start over again and be 7 days out lol. No patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 does look good but we have to start over again and be 7 days out lol. No patience One storm at a time. Weekend might give us an inch or 2. I know you hate that but I don't. Monday might dust us up too. Euro has been wet during the mid-late week (and warm) and gfs has been cold. Now the euro turned cold but still has the wet part. Not sure what else we can do other than accept the hands that are being dealt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 One storm at a time. Weekend might give us an inch or 2. I know you hate that but I don't. Monday might dust us up too. Euro has been wet during the mid-late week (and warm) and gfs has been cold. Now the euro turned cold but still has the wet part. Not sure what else we can do other than accept the hands that are being dealt. but we tracked the Feb 8-9 storm for 10 days for 5 flurries....you can understand the frustration. The best event was the Monday event which go the least hype from long range but we wasted 1.5 inches of qpf on 33 and rain. Its been just another frustrating winter and its tiresome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 does look good but we have to start over again and be 7 days out lol. No patience I'm feeling kind of the same way...I'm exhausted man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 but we tracked the Feb 8-9 storm for 10 days for 5 flurries....you can understand the frustration. The best event was the Monday event which go the least hype from long range but we wasted 1.5 inches of qpf on 33 and rain. Its been just another frustrating winter and its tiresome With the exception of 02-03, all winters are frustrating. 09-10 may have been record breaking and all but even then there was plenty of frustration. 02-03 was entertaining door to door imo. Haven't seen one since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm feeling kind of the same way...I'm exhausted man FYI -- you wrote the wrong code in your sig... its not [image][/image], replace it 216 looks so nice... 998 L in SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 By 192 1006 low along the Gulf Coast but whats looks to be a 992mb low coming down out of Canada into WI. Two strong S/w's are on the map, southern stream really digs in. Cant tell much more using instant weather maps. Way out there but by 216 995 low in the South East over SC and strong Great Lakes Low = warm look for now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 but we tracked the Feb 8-9 storm for 10 days for 5 flurries....you can understand the frustration. The best event was the Monday event which go the least hype from long range but we wasted 1.5 inches of qpf on 33 and rain. Its been just another frustrating winter and its tiresome Ah, looks likes there's a GL low in there at 216 to screw us at just the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 FYI -- you wrote the wrong code in your sig... its not [image][/image], replace it 216 looks so nice... 998 L in SC I know, it's being looked at....scott! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well, DT went out of his way yesterday to post about the Feb. 10-20 period beeing quiet and dull for the east coast, lol. We shall see. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ah, looks likes there's a GL low in there at 216 to screw us at just the right time. Yea, too bad we get 3-6 on the ground before the second piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ah, looks likes there's a GL low in there at 216 to screw us at just the right time. Its going to be a nice rainstorm for all taking a peek at the 850s and with our fav friend, the GL low nosing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I know, it's being looked at....scott! There you go, its fixed and working in your sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Its going to be a nice rainstorm for all taking a peek at the 850s and with our fav friend, the GL low nosing in Wheres the blocking and companion 50-50 vortex? There would be no stinking GL low if we can get a legit block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 not sure about a warm look. euro has about 14 inches on ground through 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Mid-late week has plenty of moisture and some cold air. I'll worry about 50/50's and gl lows in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 not sure about a warm look. euro has about 14 inches on ground through 210 huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 huh? Snow maps are flawed but we score half decently through 174. I'm not going to sweat anything. Another chance. It's all I ever ask for until the door closes on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 huh? sorry 12-13 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We are saved by HM light: From Henry Margusity"I know the operational models have backed off the storm Sunday, but I don't buy it. I am seeing the NAO going to neutral and the PNA coming up to neutral which leads me to believe that as the trough digs in, there will be some phasing of the branches and a storm should develop along the coast. Patterns like this can bring surprises that the models do not see until within a day or so of the event. Look back on the Monday snow event. The models last week only shows a weak low running across the South with very little snow, but in the end, it turned out to be a major snowstorm for the parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. So my point is don't let the model runs be the answer today. Watch and see what happens." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 sorry 12-13 inches WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Snow maps are flawed but we score half decently through 174. I'm not going to sweat anything. Another chance. It's all I ever ask for until the door closes on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Supposedly the GGEM ensembles are further NW and more amped than last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 WTF? Some of that is bogus. Ice and rain verbatim around 180-192+. We lose 850's because of the gl low. But the front end from 150-174 looks solid on paper. About .5 liquid and all snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it's a good run]you know it's getting tough when you have to sell a good run without 10 day leads. GFS is much colder and more suppressed obviously. But GEFS supports the front running wave that the euro has in which we actually get uncomplicated snow (on paper subject to 100's of changes yadayada). EPS from last night also supports some sort of similar evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some of that is bogus. Ice and rain verbatim around 180-192+. We lose 850's because of the gl low. But the front end from 150-174 looks solid on paper. About .5 liquid and all snow verbatim. Ah, ok. On another note...the CMC, GEFS and Euro all have some sort of low off the SC coast heading OTS...so there is a storm, just not where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ah, ok. On another note...the CMC, GEFS and Euro all have some sort of low off the SC coast heading OTS...so there is a storm, just not where we want it. You mean for this weekend right? I saw the cmc but I never comment on it. All we can do is track stream interaction and amp in front of the lead wave. I'll laugh if we score something acceptable. It would hardly surprise me. I'm sure many have written it off entirely. I'd be happy with an inch or 2. I think I'm ok with that expectation at least. All but one GEFS member drops .1+ over the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We are saved by HM light: From Henry Margusity "I know the operational models have backed off the storm Sunday, but I don't buy it. I am seeing the NAO going to neutral and the PNA coming up to neutral which leads me to believe that as the trough digs in, there will be some phasing of the branches and a storm should develop along the coast. Patterns like this can bring surprises that the models do not see until within a day or so of the event. Look back on the Monday snow event. The models last week only shows a weak low running across the South with very little snow, but in the end, it turned out to be a major snowstorm for the parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. So my point is don't let the model runs be the answer today. Watch and see what happens." The issues that Bob, myself and others have talked about with the s/w are the main things to focus on here. The flaw in hm-light's logic is highlighted above. The first statement makes no sense. These things do not force the trough to dig if there are 3 different waves. Same thing applies for the second bold statement. Last Monday's snowstorm wasn't 3 different s/w interacting. It's not as easy as he is making it sound, even if the storm does trend back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You mean for this weekend right? I saw the cmc but I never comment on it. All we can do is track stream interaction and amp in front of the lead wave. I'll laugh if we score something acceptable. It would hardly surprise me. I'm sure many have written it off entirely. I'd be happy with an inch or 2. I think I'm ok with that expectation at least. Nope, nowhere close to writing this one off...nobody should. Again, it's all about checked expectations. We did a full step down from yesterday...people have had enough time to adjust accordingly...goal now is 2 to 4, not a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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