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February 3, 2014 Snowstorm Observations


WeatherFox

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Not sure if anyone posted this...

 

 

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0958 AM CST MON FEB 03 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN PA/NRN AND CENTRAL NJ/LONG ISLAND INCLUDING   NYC METRO AREA   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 031558Z - 031900Z   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO   DEVELOP EWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH 18Z   IN A 30-45 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM 25 N KPHL THROUGH   CENTRAL/NRN NJ AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND /INCLUDING THE NYC METRO/ TO   INVOF KBID.  AFTER 18Z...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE...BUT RATES ARE   EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE CURRENT   FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER   HOUR SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL   APPALACHIANS WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS FEATURE SHOULD   BE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY   04/00Z.  MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COASTAL LOW   BEGINNING TO FORM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/SRN DELMARVA...WHERE   PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE LAST   FEW HOURS...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS SURFACE   LOW WILL TRACK EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED ENEWD INTO THE   ATLANTIC...RANGING FROM 150 TO 160 MILES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND   SRN EXTENT OF CAPE COD...RESPECTIVELY.     SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 13-15Z INDICATED SNOWFALL RATES ALREADY AT   1 INCH PER HOUR FROM KABE...POTTSTOWN PA /KPTW/...KTTN TO THE NYC   METRO.  AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FORM THIS MORNING AND TRACK   EWD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER   TO ELY...N OF THE LOW TRACK OVER ERN LONG ISLAND TO KACK.  THIS WILL   SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE OCEAN...WITH FURTHER   MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS REGION PER A SLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO   LONG ISLAND.  THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH  DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG   THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROVE   SUPPORTIVE OF THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES.   ..PETERS.. 02/03/2014   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...   LAT...LON   40367573 40727465 41207271 41267166 41057149 40527307               40147399 40027501 40367573 
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a lot of times today the sky has brightened so much it looks like the sun was going to be visible... despite moderate snow.

wind has really picked up in the last hour. heard some loud cracks from oak trees.

certainly over 6" so far.

Yeah the trees are really starting to get weighed down. Very little wind but intensity has picked up again. Eyeballing it somewhere in the 5-6" range

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Just got in from my second round of shoveling - heavy wet stuff today - probably 10:1 ratio of snow/liquid.  As of 11:30 am, we have 5.5" on the ground and it's snowing pretty heavily.  Radar looks like we have 3-4 hours more of this 1"+ per hour rate, so I'm expecting 8-10" with an outside shot at hitting 12" if we get a few very heavy bands and/or it lasts past 3 pm.  Temperatures holding steady between 31-32F.  NWS-Philly just updated maps/warnings, calling for a general 5-9" and with some 8-10" spots on the map. 

 

All things being equal, if I have to go (and I'm pretty sure that's not negotiable), I can't imagine a much better way to go, for me, than out shoveling in the midst of a raging snowstorm.  Sure, I'd like that to be when I'm 85+, but it would beat many other ways of going. 

Gorgeous out there, but treacherous - just helped two cars up my street, which is not that much of a grade (<3%) - and our work locations (Merck) throughout NJ/PA just announced they're closing at 1 pm.  I've been kind of working from home this morning, kind of tracking snow/shoveling/enjoying being outside in the snow.  Lots of reports of accidents/closures out there - just take a look at Google Traffic - all yellows and reds. 
 

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Yeah the trees are really starting to get weighed down. Very little wind but intensity has picked up again. Eyeballing it somewhere in the 5-6" range

..was just out there trying to shake the snow off my stand of mature hemlock..they are

under a lot of weight..approaching 5" of slop..temp has ticked up to 32.7*..rain/snow line JUST

south of LI..watching it closely.

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