michsnowfreak Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 The 12z Euro has rain to significant snow for northern IL and southern WI on Monday, and absolutely brutal cold for mid April to follow on Tuesday. -12 at 850 mb over Chicago and -14 over MKE. Sent from my SCH-I535 the 12z GEM also has a significant snowstorm, although much further east (PA). Interesting that all the models have been hinting at a snowstorm somewhere a week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 the 12z GEM also has a significant snowstorm, although much further east (PA). Interesting that all the models have been hinting at a snowstorm somewhere a week from now. Take the mean of those two and you've got yourself a Detroit snow record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Take the mean of those two and you've got yourself a Detroit snow record Speaking of the record....it sucks that we are so close...because I was inspecting 1880-81 very closely...and being SO old....there appear to be a few discrepancies. Xmacis only has a total snowfall of 79.4" that winter. I have the data that I copied when I went to the NWS 12 years ago...and I matched it with xmacis. There definitely appear to be some snow totals missing from xmacis (ie the 79.4 is def low), but there do appear to be one or two snow totals from my marked down data (the 93.6" from the nws books) that seemed suspectly high. Nothing major...but its all the difference in a record or not. Im NOT AT ALL saying that 93.6" needs to be challenged or anything...just that the archaic snow records from 1874 til about 1885 do appear to have a few holes that DTX did a good job at filling...but get screwed up in the electronic xmacis data. Its a record that has stood since the infancy of weather data, and in some ways (looking at Lansings data) I still say this winter was a TAD harsher overall....just a TAD....so we need to get that 2" somehow, even though it really means nothing in terms of the impact this winter had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 The 12z Euro has rain to significant snow for northern IL and southern WI on Monday, and absolutely brutal cold for mid April to follow on Tuesday. -12 at 850 mb over Chicago and -14 over MKE. Sent from my SCH-I535 anyone who called for anything other than a cold/brutal spring hasn't been paying attention LOT put together a nice piece a while back about springs or summers following super cold winters…the prognosis was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 this has been a "cold and brutal" spring? March is considered spring meteorologically....so yes...its been a very cold spring...so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 this has been a "cold and brutal" spring? -8.1° is pretty brutal to me. Granted, April has only been -0.9° so far.CLIMATE REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA823 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014......................................THE FORT WAYNE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2014...CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2014WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S) NORMAL................................................................TEMPERATURE (F)RECORD HIGH 87 03/21/2012 LOW -10 03/01/1967HIGHEST 65 03/31 MM MM 60 03/31LOWEST -3 03/03 MM MM 11 03/21AVG. MAXIMUM 40.3 48.0 -7.7 40.2AVG. MINIMUM 20.4 28.7 -8.3 25.9MEAN 30.3 38.4 -8.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 -8.1° is pretty brutal to me. Granted, April has only been -0.9° so far.CLIMATE REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA823 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014......................................THE FORT WAYNE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2014...CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2014WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S) NORMAL................................................................TEMPERATURE (F)RECORD HIGH 87 03/21/2012 LOW -10 03/01/1967HIGHEST 65 03/31 MM MM 60 03/31LOWEST -3 03/03 MM MM 11 03/21AVG. MAXIMUM 40.3 48.0 -7.7 40.2AVG. MINIMUM 20.4 28.7 -8.3 25.9MEAN 30.3 38.4 -8.1 In 2 or 3 weeks, theres a big rowing regatta in Wyandotte that brings high school rowers from throughout the midwest, northeast, and canada to Wyandotte. Its a big event every year in late April, and this is what the river looks like today....I dont even think the rowers have been on the water yet. That is a cold spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 As far as the day 7 system, 1886/2005/2009-esque snowstorm or pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 -8.1° is pretty brutal to me. Granted, April has only been -0.9° so far. <angrysummons> yeah, but it was a warm 6th coldest March on record for FWA <angrysummons> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Last 10-12 days hasn't been too bad considering the times before that. Little cool, but the departure so far this month is nothing compared to the first 7 days of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 The system that the Euro is showing for next weekend is fascinating to me. If the surface low sets up over the Dakotas Saturday, as is hinted, that could leave the MPX CWA in the warm sector with dews in the mid 50's maybe approaching 60°. Depending on the amount of sunshine realized on Saturday we could see some strong to severe storms before the cold front arrives. The cold front should arrive sometime Saturday evening leaving us to warm for the snow, but the said cold front appears to be strong for this time of year, and it will be slow moving. Timing will be critical with this event in respect to snow, overnight snow totals could get out of hand quickly. Very interesting indeed, possible severe up here and snow to the SE. What a end to the cold season, if this develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 12z GFS lost the snow chances next week. Flat, progressive wave with next to zero precip on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 With the 12z run the Euro continues to be much slower and stronger with the weekend energy.... really dumps rain across Iowa, and then snow up through Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 With the 12z run the Euro continues to be much slower and stronger with the weekend energy.... really dumps rain across Iowa, and then snow up through Wisconsin. 12Z GEM is pretty impressive too with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 A ways out there but decent severe setup on Sunday, would be farther north along the warm front in northern IL Sunday evening on the 12z Euro verbatim and farther south over central IL and IN south of the front during the day Sunday per the GFS and GEM. ECMWF has been consistently slowest and strongest amongst the operational runs for the past several model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 12z GFS with 6-12" for northern IL/southern WI on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 12z GFS with 6-12" for northern IL/southern WI on Monday. Just started a thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 zzzzzzz, cold and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 NAEFS shows some hope: Cold around the lakes is just because of cold lake waters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 One more time and I'll stop... Spring cancel! Here comes summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 ^ Bring it on! I want to start sodding and planting soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 zzzzzzz, cold and wet Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Holy potatoes...severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 Not if the moisture return s**** the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Or not. toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 toss ha wow. tossing every model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 tossK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 There's excellent model agreement on average to above average temps out to the 10 day range. We are not talking about an individual system here...it would be a huge model failure to see it evolve into a cold pattern. Of course, in Alek's case, living 3 feet from the lake might cause some lake breeze issues on any days with weak gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 There's excellent model agreement on average to above average temps out to the 10 day range. We are not talking about an individual system here...it would be a huge model failure to see it evolve into a cold pattern. Of course, in Alek's case, living 3 feet from the lake might cause some lake breeze issues on any days with weak gradients. Yes, synoptically it going to be a warm pattern. I wouldn't even toss based upon the lake as there looks to be pretty good gradients most of the days. Also it is silly to toss based upon the mesoscale, if the weekend was any indication most areas are going to be warm with a few random cool spots that will be the exception vs the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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