buckeye Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 consider me Cosgrove's biggest cheerleader as of now, LC: "Despite the scenario offered by the ECMWF and CFS weeklies, I think it unwise to stick with a cold forecast for much of the U.S. in March. There is no support for much Arctic air advection on any dynamical model (in this case the GFS, ECMWF and GGEM ensemble formats), and the key features associated with the harshest winter since 1981-82 are lifting out. With the cAk vortex fragmented and along the Arctic Circle, a semizonal flow will set up across the northern Pacific Ocean and though the lower 48 states. So the trends which develop in the first week of March are likely to continue, if not expand, through the middle of the month. That is, milder temperatures and chances for significant rainfall, with less emphasis on frozen precipitation." JB and wxbell going for a cold and stormy March. Lines drawn, will be interesting to see who wins this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Good to see the giant eastern trough becoming less prominent in most of the mid/long range progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 lol @ the chaser community getting excited over 2 week GFS nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 lol @ the chaser community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Add the spotter community as well. Just had a good spotter training session by NWS at Notre Dame last night. This winter is just way too long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 lol @ the chaser community getting excited over 2 week GFS nonsense. Yeah way too early to get excited, now if we are seeing a full latitudinal trough like that 5 days out then excitement would probably be sky high, considering the lack of severe weather this winter had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 consider me Cosgrove's biggest cheerleader as of now, LC: "Despite the scenario offered by the ECMWF and CFS weeklies, I think it unwise to stick with a cold forecast for much of the U.S. in March. There is no support for much Arctic air advection on any dynamical model (in this case the GFS, ECMWF and GGEM ensemble formats), and the key features associated with the harshest winter since 1981-82 are lifting out. With the cAk vortex fragmented and along the Arctic Circle, a semizonal flow will set up across the northern Pacific Ocean and though the lower 48 states. So the trends which develop in the first week of March are likely to continue, if not expand, through the middle of the month. That is, milder temperatures and chances for significant rainfall, with less emphasis on frozen precipitation." JB and wxbell going for a cold and stormy March. Lines drawn, will be interesting to see who wins this. the negative departures that will be in place after marches first 2 weeks will be awfully difficult to erase, so I think going for a colder than normal march is definitely the wise choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 I'm becoming rather intrigued by the potential for an uptick in severe weather in the last couple weeks of the month. Most of the ensemble members indicate a substantial drop in the PNA by the third week of the month in addition to a large AO spike and continued positive NAO. Reading Sam's twitter and checking the indices, it also appears that there will be poleward progression of AAM in this timeframe. All of these factors would support western troughing and potential leeside cyclogenesis/warm sector advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 18z GFS for March 12 finally starting to show warmer incursions for the second half of the month to the midwest with a possible nice spring storm for the first weekend of astronomical spring. One model...one run....but out to 384 the systems start to traverse farther north as would be expected this time of year. There is a light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 18z GFS for March 12 finally starting to show warmer incursions for the second half of the month to the midwest with a possible nice spring storm for the first weekend of astronomical spring. One model...one run....but out to 384 the systems start to traverse farther north as would be expected this time of year. There is a light at the end of the tunnel. The problem is the GFS is already out of whack even before we get that far, it tracks the 18th-19th storm across the Canadian border while all the other models have it about 400 miles south of that, including some of the GFS ensembles. At this point it might be right but it is probably 5 days too fast for a warm up like it always is at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The problem is the GFS is already out of whack even before we get that far, it tracks the 18th-19th storm across the Canadian border while all the other models have it about 400 miles south of that, including some of the GFS ensembles. At this point it might be right but it is probably 5 days too fast for a warm up like it always is at this range. I'm hoping Andy's post prior to mine works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'm hoping Andy's post prior to mine works out. It very well could, and I am seeing exactly what he is as well, I just think it will be delayed beyond day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 2009 was a horrible severe wx season except for some good late April days, 5/13, 6/5 and 6/7 There was also some good severe weather days from August 8th-10th in 2009. But otherwise, that was about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 I guess we'll see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 There's been an interesting look for sometime in the March 21-23 period for several runs now. Looking past that, the 0z GFS scours the Gulf in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Departures are coming up, nothing much under -15°F anymore! Looks like the AO & NAO remain +. Then the PNA is forecasted to fall negative again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Would love to know what teleconnections they are looking at? Not saying they are gonna be wrong. Only big change i have seen is with the PNA. The EPO is as negative as ever ( despite modeling which said it would go positive for a lil while ) and the AO is at neutral. Typically this combo would favor more storms along the west coast ( this they are correct about ) and more of a se ridge BUT this is somewhat dependent on the Atlantic ( NAO etc ) etc. Does not support temps in the 50s/60s in the DVN area. If anything temps would be below normal out that way as the trough would be situated further west then what we have seen alot of this winter and thus from the GL to the west coast vs GL to east coast unless the NAO tanks then it is coast to coast below normal. AGAIN not saying that is how it will all work out. Just explaining what usually happens. There is the teleconnection to the Bering Sea and translating the tropical ISO to the mid-latitude. The Bering Sea Rule states what happens over there in specific regions teleconnects to specific regions of CONUS ~19 days later. The ISO/Rossby teleconnection utilizes the short-term and long-term components of the tropical ISO and correlates the cycles to the mid-latitude recurring Rossby Wave Train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 There is the teleconnection to the Bering Sea and translating the tropical ISO to the mid-latitude. The Bering Sea Rule states what happens over there in specific regions teleconnects to specific regions of CONUS ~19 days later. The ISO/Rossby teleconnection utilizes the short-term and long-term components of the tropical ISO and correlates the cycles to the mid-latitude recurring Rossby Wave Train. Oh i know that.. Note the date of the post i made. How did it work out? So again i am still not sure what they were looking at? You cannot make such a call on that alone especially not this winter as they have had mixed signals since the start. Note the comments around this board ( other sub forums etc ) about the MJO not being in sync and thus see the Wheeler chart. At the end other then some long range model shenanigans there really was no real support for the kind of pattern change that they ( that forecaster ) had called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 I guess we'll see where this goes. Nowhere...as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAEFS just shows the pattern continuing through the end of the month... put a fork in March... Maybe April we'll get above 50F again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Will get some 50s this month DLL. They probably won't be continuous though until next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I see no hope of 50F through Mar 20th..but maybe later in the month. Last march had only 1 day hit 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 06z GFS is warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 6z GFS was pretty nice between the 27th and 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 6z GFS was pretty nice between the 27th and 1st. fantasy range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 fantasy range He's been reaching for the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 fantasy range How rare is it we look forward to fantasy range for WARMER temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How rare is it we look forward to fantasy range for WARMER temperatures? Happens every March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ugh! GFS offers little hope for warmth here through April 5 at least. Same old...same old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 6z GFS is garbage... but NAEFS finally shows some normal temps late March/1st week of April... a good sign. This is probably the "warmest" look in ....months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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