RCNYILWX Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 2009 redux Based on the likelihood of El Nino being underway during the summer, wouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Based on the likelihood of El Nino being underway during the summer, wouldn't be surprised. Thanks for egging on our resident summer naysayer. lol Ricky, if you're right about our friend El Nino, coupled with the past several months, it could end up being an impressive stretch of negative temp departures for this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Based on the likelihood of El Nino being underway during the summer, wouldn't be surprised. Thanks for egging on our resident summer naysayer. lol Ricky, if you're right about our friend El Nino, coupled with the past several months, it could end up being an impressive stretch of negative temp departures for this part of the country. i'm only 25% trolling. there's plenty of reasons to ride a cold summer but yeah, you're onto my schtick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 i'm only 25% trolling. there's plenty of reasons to ride a cold summer but yeah, you're onto my schtick Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference between 25% and 90% trolling but anyway, for the western part of the subforum, 60% of El Nino summers since 1950 were cooler than average, a bit under 30% warmer than climb and just above 10% near normal. This is based off stats in a local/regional climate research tool we have in the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Nino summers, per CPC's definition, for Indianapolis lean cool as well (versus longterm airport averages). 4 above normal summers 10 below normal summers 1 normal summer June, July, August, and Summer mean temps...and 90º days for each month/season for Indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Thanks for the info guys. To go along with that, i'm pretty sure LOT put together a piece a month or two back (will try to find later) about spring and/or summer temps following super cold winters and IIRC the results skewed pretty hard to the cool side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Thanks for the info guys. To go along with that, i'm pretty sure LOT put together a piece a month or two back (will try to find later) about spring and/or summer temps following super cold winters and IIRC the results skewed pretty hard to the cool side. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=101337&source=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 To be honest...don't care if summer is below norm... More biking weather in my book. Would rather deal with a well below normal summer then a below normal winter/spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 To be honest...don't care if summer is below norm... More biking weather in my book. Would rather deal with a well below normal summer then a below normal winter/spring... Yeah I really don't care either, especially after having a few hot summers in a row. I like the heat, but it's also nice to have the cooler days in the warm season for outdoor crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Tim, I know that you are mainly a winter guy, but your climo info is always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=101337&source=2 Also recently put together a slide for a media workshop with info for El Nino summers that we'll probably post as a pdf on our website soon, if not the entire ppt presentation. If you want a warm summer and you have a glass is half full mentality, summer 2002 was warmer and wetter than normal around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=101337&source=2 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Tim, I know that you are mainly a winter guy, but your climo info is always appreciated. Thanks. Summer is not my forte, and board hibernation time is close, but I don't mind throwing out a few warm season stats every now and then. Did the same thing for Indianapolis that LOT did for Chicago...top 20 coldest winters and the subsequent spring and summer. I used the longterm mean average temps for Indy, for the departures part. Spring was pretty much a toss up, with 9 being warmer than average...7 cooler than average...and 4 around normal. Summers leaned normal or cooler than average, with only 5 being warmer than normal. Though the king of all hot summers makes the list, so there is still hope for Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Chicago= Maybe I'm reading this wrong...but it sure looks like if MAM avg below norm, the odds of a cool summer are pretty darn high??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Chicago= Maybe I'm reading this wrong...but it sure looks like if MAM avg below norm, the odds of a cool summer are pretty darn high??? Yeah. Looks like there was one year where spring was cool but summer was warm...1893. But, pretty small sample size. I guess we'll see where this spring ends up at IND, but May is going to have to torch to bring this edition into positive numbers. March 2014 temp departure: -6.5º April 2014 temp departure: -0.6º through 4/24 (but should finish in positive numbers, as it's going to torch at IND through the end of the month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 and the beat goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 If latest progs verify with those 850 mb temps in the -2 to -5 range here next week, then I'd expect one or more days with highs struggling to get past the mid 40s (setup looks like it would favor clouds and maybe light precip to keep temps in check). We'll see if it modifies at all as it gets closer. This has modified a bit...more into the 0 to -2 range here which means it will be difficult to keep highs in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 18z GFS has the first shorts days here not happening again until May 8th... and that would be upper 60Fs/70F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Looks like a decent severe weather threat setting up for parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley by mid week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 April 29 CFS flipped to above average for May for a good chunk of the subforum. This is the first run to show that in a while though. Let's see if tomorrow holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 April 29 CFS flipped to above average for May for a good chunk of the subforum. This is the first run to show that in a while though. Let's see if tomorrow holds. The last two days of the CFS had been warming that region and I would imagine that tomorrow will follow along the same progression. Just from my point of view, but it looked like the CFS was really following along with the NAO for the last few weeks. It was looking really warm, then it changed to cool once the -NAO was forecast and now the blocking looks to relax and the CFS is following suit. I may be wrong, but that is what I took from the CFS recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 April 29 CFS flipped to above average for May for a good chunk of the subforum. This is the first run to show that in a while though. Let's see if tomorrow holds. CFSv2_NaT2m_20140429_201405.gif I'd absolutely love to see that sort of dividing line through the subforum, it will make for interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I'd absolutely love to see that sort of dividing line through the subforum, it will make for interesting times ahead. For May 8th The GFS brings 1500 cape to MSP based on it's depiction on where the warm front sets up, the CMC and Euro are further south, looks like a possible active time south and east of MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Will this pesky L allow the early May warmth come to fruition in and around WI? Continued chill late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-may-could-see-coldest-start-in-75-years-20140430,0,5010165.story May could see coldest start in 75 years lol @ anyone who called for a warm spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Looks like a decent severe weather threat setting up for parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley by mid week next week. The GFS and CMC pretty much in line and advect 60's dews up into Ontario on Thursday. Could be our first decent set-up of the year. Warm sector only seems to be open for a few hours before the cold front swings through but that's pretty typical of ON severe threats. Of course this is still a week out but it's nice to see a moist Gulf warm front finally make it's way up here on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 April 29 CFS flipped to above average for May for a good chunk of the subforum. This is the first run to show that in a while though. Let's see if tomorrow holds. CFSv2_NaT2m_20140429_201405.gif It didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 same garbage we've been seeing for months, massive pac ridge/AK torch with cold NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Persistence might be the overused term of the month, and I'll use it if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 same garbage we've been seeing for months, massive pac ridge/AK torch with cold NW flow If that be the case----- NAEFS shows warmth building in the se ...could be something...probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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