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Spring 2014 Med/Long Range Discussion


andyhb

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On the days it doesn't storm, I prefer cooler summer weather. I rarely go to the beach, and I am a bit ADHD, so the constant movement results in a tendency to sweat very quickly. A day like today, mid 50s, is actually nearly perfect to my tolerance level in the sun.

I hear that Siberia is nice in the summer.  Nothing like some permafrost to keep you cool. 

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Models are all over the place this weekend into next week.  The GFS has finally cried uncle and dropped the omega block, so it is north and much wetter with the next storm.  The Euro has been wobbling somewhat on the placement of the front, but has generally been chilly and wet, but the new 12z run is wildly farther north.  It has changed from 40s & 50s here to 70s all weekend.  I expect it may flop colder again.  All the models continue to advertise cold and wet/white early to mid next week.

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Models are all over the place this weekend into next week.  The GFS has finally cried uncle and dropped the omega block, so it is north and much wetter with the next storm.  The Euro has been wobbling somewhat on the placement of the front, but has generally been chilly and wet, but the new 12z run is wildly farther north.  It has changed from 40s & 50s here to 70s all weekend.  I expect it may flop colder again.  All the models continue to advertise cold and wet/white early to mid next week.

 

Wagons north! Your right on the southern edge of the snow from the EURO (poor wxbell maps show that though, so it could be further north still).

 

Warm front sets up awfully close around here. So hopefully that low keeps trending north and turns winds S for awhile.

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NAEFS....1st week of May

 

CFS flipped back to cold again too. If this pans out, it would be quite the stretch of below-normal temperatures. We've been solidly below normal here since November. September and October were above-normal if I'm remembering correctly, but all of last summer was below normal as well as last spring.

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GFS seems to have gotten more credit the last several months. Drier solutions have actually panned out.

 

 

 

 

you're way too IMBY here...some of the recent systems performed very much as advertised further west. GFS has been crap since losing its mojo mid winter

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you're way too IMBY here...some of the recent systems performed very much as advertised further west. GFS has been crap since losing its mojo mid winter

 

The GFS and its ensembles have actually been on the wetter side of reality lately overall, so I'm thinking he's stating its use because it shows the warmer and drier weather he covets.

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The GFS and its ensembles have actually been on the wetter side of reality lately overall, so I'm thinking he's stating its use because it shows the warmer and drier weather he covets.

 

EURO is showing the same trend now. South with the heaviest amounts of rain.

 

@DLL - Yeah the leaf out has begun here. Hopefully it will be warmer near the lake during this cool spell. Fingers crossed.

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If latest progs verify with those 850 mb temps in the -2 to -5 range here next week, then I'd expect one or more days with highs struggling to get past the mid 40s (setup looks like it would favor clouds and maybe light precip to keep temps in check).  We'll see if it modifies at all as it gets closer.

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If latest progs verify with those 850 mb temps in the -2 to -5 range here next week, then I'd expect one or more days with highs struggling to get past the mid 40s (setup looks like it would favor clouds and maybe light precip to keep temps in check).  We'll see if it modifies at all as it gets closer.

 

My p n c is already showing showers and 48 for next Wednesday. Pretty far out to go that much below climo. Confidence is there at IWX.

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My p n c is already showing showers and 48 for next Wednesday. Pretty far out to go that much below climo. Confidence is there at IWX.

Same with DTX Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday 48/47/49 with lows of 35/36/36. Only thing I am hoping for is no freezing conditions.

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Yeah, if there was ever to be the shortest "comfortable" spring imaginable this one is probably going to be it. Will flip to summer to summer mode very quickly when it does occur.

 

0z EURO pounds the corn belt with really heavy rain through Day 10.

 

 

8" bullseye.

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Plan on putting in sod on Saturday. Weather looks good for starting that kind of planting at least. I know as far as root vegetables - they are pretty tolerant of cool damp weather. Forget about putting in annuals yet though...

 

12z EURO through 186 hours.

 

 

EURO shows a big warm up region wide late week.

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