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February 3rd Snowstorm


earthlight

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WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST AND IF YOU BELIEVE 

THE NAM...NOT ENOUGH! WE'LL AWAIT 00Z/3 GFS AND WWD GUIDANCE 

BEFORE ANY MORE CHANGES. WE ADDED A TIER OF ADVISORY ON THE 

SOUTHERN EDGE OF WARNING AREA BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE OF 

ADVY. 

MY CONCERN IS PHILLY NORTH TO ALLENTOWN AND NEW BRUNSWICK. 

ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THE VOLUME OF 00Z/3 NAM QPF. 

SNOW GROWTH LOOKS VERY GOOD (20MB AT -14C) ON THE NAM NOW IN MOST 

OF OUR AREA...E PA AND NW NJ CENTERED JUST NW OF I95 AT 12Z MOVES 

JUST SE OF I95 AT 15Z AND OUT TO SEA AT 18Z. THIS HAS ME THINKING 

A 2-3 HR OF 1/4 S+ IN MANY AREAS DURING THE MORNING. THE GFS NEEDS 

TO CONFIRM BUT I AM PREPARED TO SEE THAT DEVELOP. 

FOR THOSE QUESTIONING THE WARM THICKNESS AND FCSTG HEAVY SNOW...THAT 

BOTHERS ME AS WELL BUT MY INTERPRETATION OF PCPN MICROPHYSICS IS 

IF THE COLUMN IS AT OR BELOW ZERO AND SEEDED WITH CRYSTALS FROM 

ABV... ANY ZL-/IP- ZR- CHANGES TO SNOW. THE THICKNESS IS HIGH 

BECAUSE THE ONCOMING SHORT WAVE IS WEAK (70M HFC) AND HEIGHTS 

(850-700 THICKNESS WARM) ARE HIGH LEAVING THE ENTIRE COLUMN AT 

MARGINAL JUST SUBZERO IN THE I95 AREA NWD. CIRRUS UPSTREAM IN THE 

OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SEEN ON 02Z SATELLITE IMAGERY IS YOUR 

SEEDER. 

THE DRIVERS FOR THE LIFT APPEAR TO ME TO BE THE 180 KT 250MB JET 

STREAK THRU MAINE AT 12Z MONDAY AND THE SW 850 WIND OF 50-55KT IN 

W NC AT 12Z MONDAY PUSHING 9C 850 DEWPOINT OUR WAY...WITH 

TREMENDOUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AT 12Z MONDAY. 

WATCH FOR POSSIBLE POWER PROBLEMS IN THE 6 INCH WET SNOW ZONE DOWN 

HERE SOMEWHERE IN S CENTRAL NJ WHERE POWER OUTAGES MAY DEVELOP?

Mr. Drag knows of what he speaks. :)

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...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT MONDAY...

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-031100-

/O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/

HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-

KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-

NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

954 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7

PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF

NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO ALL

SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...IN

PARTICULAR DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

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This is why feel like the earlier discussions around an advisory versus a warning do belong on this forum. At the update, guidance and trends screamed for a warning in the NYC metro area. NWS is fantastic, but of our analysis of the models can't allow for us to predict and even question their decisions without arguments, a piece of what we are doing here is lost.

Enjoy the snow crew!

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