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February 3rd Snowstorm


earthlight

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Just for grins, I posted the following at 2 am Sunday.  Didn't do too badly with the breakdown of what the NWS would end up doing, although it took a lot longer than I expected.  Had the right combo of counties getting the heaviest snow predictions, although I wasn't sure if they'd get warnings or advisories. 

 

"Having followed the NWS for a long time, given that the Euro largely held serve, with just about the same storm track and snowfall amounts as the 0Z run today, I'd expect the NWS to compromise between the more bullish and northward Euro/Canadian and the weaker/more southward GFS/NAM and at least issue winter weather advisories for 3-6" (not quite warning criteria, which is 6" or more in 12 hours for counties north of 195) for Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset, Hunterdon, Essex, Hudson, Union, NYC/LI, but probably leaving Warren, Sussex, Morris, Bergen, Passaic (and the Hudson Valley/CT) out of the advisories with only 1-3" predictions.

 

I'd also expect the current watch counties along the Delaware Valley in SJ (Burlington, Ocean, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem) and in SE PA converted to warnings for 4-6", where warning criteria are 4" in 12 hours.  I'd also guess that they might put up warnings for Atlantic and Cumberland, as enough of those counties could get 4" or more of snow after a changeover from rain, to start.  Cape May might just get a WWAdvisory.  Let's see how I do, lol."

 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42642-feb-3rd-event/page-24#entry2714831

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does not look like the heavy banding in SEPA/SNJ is going to make it up to the NYC metro.. still should see a decent storm, but for those 6+ totals we were gonna need to be in the heavy banding to overcome marginal accumulation issues...

 

looks like a 3-5" in NYC and SEPA/SNJ/CNJ closer to 6-12" IMO

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does not look like the heavy banding in SEPA/SNJ is going to make it up to the NYC metro.. still should see a decent storm, but for those 6+ totals we were gonna need to be in the heavy banding to overcome marginal accumulation issues...

Your Wrong Kiddo

looks like a 3-5" in NYC and SEPA/SNJ/CNJ closer to 6-12" IMO

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does not look like the heavy banding in SEPA/SNJ is going to make it up to the NYC metro.. still should see a decent storm, but for those 6+ totals we were gonna need to be in the heavy banding to overcome marginal accumulation issues...

 

looks like a 3-5" in NYC and SEPA/SNJ/CNJ closer to 6-12" IMO

It looks heavier there because that is rain. Looking at the Central PA radar, snow looks to be inching north there. Everything's on track for us.

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does not look like the heavy banding in SEPA/SNJ is going to make it up to the NYC metro.. still should see a decent storm, but for those 6+ totals we were gonna need to be in the heavy banding to overcome marginal accumulation issues...

Your Wrong Kiddo

looks like a 3-5" in NYC and SEPA/SNJ/CNJ closer to 6-12" IMO

 

that was exactly my call?!? 

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It looks heavier there because that is rain. Looking at the Central PA radar, snow looks to be inching north there. Everything's on track for us.

ill be patient and not look at radar for an hour... ill see if we can make some progress, just looks like guidance was a little too far north with heaviest axis..

 

not complaining, just saying I think more of a 3-5 event in NYC and 6-12 in SEPA and CNJ

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ill be patient and not look at radar for an hour... ill see if we can make some progress, just looks like guidance was a little too far north with heaviest axis..

not complaining, just saying I think more of a 3-5 event in NYC and 6-12 in SEPA and CNJ

But a lot of places are already close to 3 in and around the city... Even without heavy banding 6"+ is likely

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