earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll just leave this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Also...to continue discussion from prior thread: If I lived in Southeast NJ I would be really worried about a significant amount of taint from this system. The high resolution forecast models are showing the 925mb low passing overhead there and during heavy precipitation the temperatures actually increase from 0.5 to 1.0 at that level. The 925mb low doesn't really close until it passes southeast of there, and by that time the best lift for heavy precipitation is streaming off the coast. I think areas Southeast of MT Holly and along the SE New Jersey shore could be really disappointed. It is easy to ignore this when looking at the models but it doesn't look very good there. Long Island looks to get really lucky with this system as the front sags just south of that latitude and the 925mb low is far enough south so that the wind direction helps to avoid any taint at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That is beautiful *tear* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll just leave this here. hires_ref_neng_21.png MODEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Allsnow, where are the warnings? I still see only watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 4km NAM has dew points area wide at 5am tomorrow between 30-32. As heavier precip moves in, we should be between 30-32 for air temps as we cool to the wet bulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 337 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-030930- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0004.140203T1100Z-140203T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.140203T1100Z-140204T0000Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON- OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY... JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA... PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN... LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 337 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON DELAWARE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION BEGINS PROBABLY AS RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN STARTS TO CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE FINAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY LATE MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY LATE MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S TOMORROW DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S TOMORROW NIGHT. ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT WILL FREEZE TO MANY UNTREATED SURFACES. * IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS COULD BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Advisories from Monmouth North, Warnings in Ocean, its the same 4-6 forecast just different criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 still don't understand why Ocean County is under a winter storm warning with 2 -4 forecasted and middlesex county just gets a winter weather advisory at 4- 6 inches forecasted - having lived in both places doesn't make any sense to me - basically the same type of folks and the same amount of snow removal equipment etc etc http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is a really fast mover actually....seems like the heavier snow could fall 1.5" per hour for a few hours to give us mostly all of our accumulation right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I thought Mt. Holly was going to go up to 6-8 but they want to be safe and still have the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ337 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014NJZ009-013>015-PAZ101-103-105-030930-/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0004.140203T1100Z-140203T2100Z//O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.140203T1100Z-140204T0000Z/HUNTERDON-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE337 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PMEST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIAAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION BEGINS PROBABLY AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIXEARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN STARTS TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOWBY THE MID-MORNING TIMEFRAME. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY FOR AFEW HOURS LATE MONDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S TOMORROW DROPPING INTO THETEENS AND LOWER 20S TOMORROW NIGHT. ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURETOMORROW NIGHT WILL FREEZE TO MANY UNTREATED SURFACES.* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS COULD BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERYDURING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 still don't understand why Ocean County is under a winter storm warning with 2 -4 forecasted and middlesex county just gets a winter weather advisory at 4- 6 inches forecasted - having lived in both places doesn't make any sense to me - basically the same type of folks and the same amount of snow removal equipment etc etc http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Different criteria by the NWS, Ocean's WSW is for 4-6, really what's the difference anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The south and east press of colder surface and 850mb temps really seems to slow and then stop over southeast NJ. South and east of a line from Salem County to the Seaside area (central Ocean County) could be in for a long delay before a changeover at the end. I am thinking I will rain here in southeastern Monmouth until the heavier precip arrives around 7am or 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Side note here: CTP is dropping the ball with southern PA by not issuing warnings. They could easily jackpot form this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Different criteria by the NWS, Ocean's WSW is for 4-6, really what's the difference anyway. yes I agree - also if the gfs comes in at 18Z with higher qpf and all the models hold on to the higher qpf at 0Z everyone will be under a winter storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is quickly becoming a significant event and I don't get 3-5" when it should be double that honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 The issues I have with forecasting higher snowfall amounts are ratios, snow growth and surface temperatures. As ridiculous as it may sound after weeks of temperatures well below freezing, we have to remember that we're well into the 50's everywhere today. These frontal boundary to snow events are always a little difficult to forecast and we're going to have to really carefully watch if precipitation starts as rain especially south of NYC. All of that aside, a few things to remember. First, ratios are going to be low and crappy. It is easy to look at 0.75" of liquid and say "MECS" but that isn't the case here I can promise you that. This will likely end up being a solid moderate snowstorm -- and don't get me wrong, has the potential to be significant too -- but isn't quite a layup yet. When you consider 0.50 to 0.75" liquid with 10-12:1 ratios, you get 3-6/4-8" of snow tops and I think that is what we're looking at. Many areas especially near the coast and urban locales are going to lose some liquid to non-sticking snow. I love snow falling as much as the next guy but when we're talking accumulations it is very important to take this into account. Finally, snowflake production on most soundings is good...but borderine...the newest model runs are better in shifting the best lift into the snow growth region and that adds some confidence. But it remains an uncertainty. I think we see 4-8" amounts in the heaviest bands which should stream northeast just to the north and west of the stalled frontal zone which will be over Southeast NJ and just S of Long Island. This will bring the best stuff from SE PA in to North-Central NJ by Monday afternoon and then moving into NYC. There are some indications of weakening lift over Long Island as well so that is something to consider moving forward. The areas underneath those bands are likely to experience the heaviest snow and best growth as well as highest accumulations. Areas south of those bands are more than likely to see lighter snowfall amounts with fluctuating precipitation types especially SE of Mount Holly. I ultimately think the 2-5" will be relatively uniform in this CWA over Northern NJ and CT where steady light to moderate snow will accumulate faster as colder air funnels in throughout the atmospheric column. Just some thoughts moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Keeping warnings away from Super Bowl affected areas is not a bad idea for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 still don't understand why Ocean County is under a winter storm warning with 2 -4 forecasted and middlesex county just gets a winter weather advisory at 4- 6 inches forecasted - having lived in both places doesn't make any sense to me - basically the same type of folks and the same amount of snow removal equipment etc etc http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Middlesex criterion is 6" for WSWarning, while Ocean's is 4". Still surprised Mercer/Hunterdon/Monmouth are warnings and Middlesex/Somerset are advisories, when all have the same 6" criterion for a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM looks similar if not a tick north of the 12z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 anyone have latest RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 anyone have latest RPM? I'd check the NE thread... Red taggers love it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The issues I have with forecasting higher snowfall amounts are ratios, snow growth and surface temperatures. As ridiculous as it may sound after weeks of temperatures well below freezing, we have to remember that we're well into the 50's everywhere today. These frontal boundary to snow events are always a little difficult to forecast and we're going to have to really carefully watch if precipitation starts as rain especially south of NYC. All of that aside, a few things to remember. First, ratios are going to be low and crappy. It is easy to look at 0.75" of liquid and say "MECS" but that isn't the case here I can promise you that. This will likely end up being a solid moderate snowstorm -- and don't get me wrong, has the potential to be significant too -- but isn't quite a layup yet. When you consider 0.50 to 0.75" liquid with 10-12:1 ratios, you get 3-6/4-8" of snow tops and I think that is what we're looking at. Many areas especially near the coast and urban locales are going to lose some liquid to non-sticking snow. I love snow falling as much as the next guy but when we're talking accumulations it is very important to take this into account. Finally, snowflake production on most soundings is good...but borderine...the newest model runs are better in shifting the best lift into the snow growth region and that adds some confidence. But it remains an uncertainty. I think we see 4-8" amounts in the heaviest bands which should stream northeast just to the north and west of the stalled frontal zone which will be over Southeast NJ and just S of Long Island. This will bring the best stuff from SE PA in to North-Central NJ by Monday afternoon and then moving into NYC. There are some indications of weakening lift over Long Island as well so that is something to consider moving forward. The areas underneath those bands are likely to experience the heaviest snow and best growth as well as highest accumulations. Areas south of those bands are more than likely to see lighter snowfall amounts with fluctuating precipitation types especially SE of Mount Holly. I ultimately think the 2-5" will be relatively uniform in this CWA over Northern NJ and CT where steady light to moderate snow will accumulate faster as colder air funnels in throughout the atmospheric column. Just some thoughts moving forward. Good points, but keep in mind that either way we’re getting decent snowfall and in reality, even for places that get 5-6” of snow it’s going to be a heavy wet snow with about 0.5-0.6” liquid equivalents (10:1, snow:liquid ratio), as compared to the 8-12” we got in the last storm, which also featured about 0.5-0.6” liquid equivalent (at 20:1 ratios) – i.e., even though snow depths may be half of the last storm, snow masses would end up being the same. It's a little arbitrary to say that the first storm was twice as bad as the latter one, if it works out like that. The biggest difference, to me, with regard to impacts will likely be that we get more melting, especially during the day and on major highways vs. the 1/21 system, and no drifting; on the other hand, trees will likely be weighted down much more, which could lead to some power outages where 6"+ falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So mount holly and upton snow maps both show a general 4-6" from PHL to NYC and even including parts of NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 All you need to know is that purple is 6"+ 18z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Earthlight has me scared $hitless living in ocean county that I'm gonna walk away a snow deprived weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Middlesex criterion is 6" for WSWarning, while Ocean's is 4". Still surprised Mercer/Hunterdon/Monmouth are warnings and Middlesex/Somerset are advisories, when all have the same 6" criterion for a warning. Mercer/Hunterdon/Monmouth are all advisories right now, not warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM close to 20mm of snow at NYC. Probably 18/19mm, or about 7.2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And as the snow approaches, my snowpack goes from 2" to almost 0 today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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