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Monday Mauler Obs Thread


Avdave

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Everyone needs to have patients. Once that first inch of warmed ground cools down, the second cold inch and under will shoot off enough coldness to change the falling unfrozen rain to something else. Now I can't promise what it will be, but you can expect some type of sleet or snow after the cold ground underneath teh warm ground works it's magic.

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Everyone needs to have patients. Once that first inch of warmed ground cools down, the second cold inch and under will shoot off enough coldness to change the falling unfrozen rain to something else. Now I can't promise what it will be, but you can expect some type of sleet or snow after the cold ground underneath the warm ground works it's magic.

 

patients? like doctors?

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I sure don't think the GSF had the best temp forecasts.  It had DCA almost a snow sounding at 12Z.  Here's the 00Z RAP. No models were as warm as what it is showing. 

Date: Analysis for 1200Z  3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1009    63   3.9   3.4  97  0.4   3.7  36   7 276.3 277.2 276.4 289.5  4.85  1 1000   134   2.8   2.6  99  0.2   2.7  37  13 275.9 276.7 275.8 288.4  4.60  2  950   546   0.3   0.3 100  0.0   0.3  62  26 277.5 278.2 276.0 288.8  4.11  3  900   980   1.2   1.1  99  0.1   1.1  97  24 282.7 283.5 279.3 295.5  4.59  4  850  1440   0.9   0.8  99  0.1   0.8 147  22 287.1 287.9 281.6 300.6  4.77  5  800  1930   2.9   2.9 100  0.0   2.9 198  38 294.3 295.3 285.8 311.5  5.91  6  750  2453   1.4   1.4 100  0.0   1.4 215  53 298.1 299.2 287.1 314.9  5.66  7  700  3006  -1.1  -1.1 100  0.0  -1.2 225  57 301.2 302.2 287.5 316.4  5.03  8  650  3595  -3.5  -3.7  99  0.2  -3.6 231  61 305.0 305.8 288.3 318.7  4.47  9  600  4225  -6.3  -7.2  94  0.9  -6.7 231  66 308.9 309.6 288.9 320.5  3.73 10  550  4902  -9.6 -11.1  89  1.4 -10.2 229  73 312.6 313.2 289.4 322.2  2.98 11  500  5632 -14.0 -15.3  89  1.4 -14.4 229  78 316.0 316.5 289.9 323.7  2.32 12  450  6423 -19.1 -20.7  87  1.6 -19.6 232  80 319.2 319.6 290.2 324.8  1.64 13  400  7290 -24.9 -27.2  81  2.3 -25.4 234  80 322.7 322.9 290.6 326.3  1.03 14  350  8246 -32.0 -34.8  76  2.8 -32.4 236  79 325.6 325.7 291.0 327.6  0.57 15  300  9313 -41.1 -44.5  70  3.3 -41.4 236  78 327.4 327.4 291.2 328.3  0.24 16  250 10523 -51.7                      238  95 329.3                         17  200 11927 -61.7                      244 114 335.1                         18  150 13731 -58.5                      254  99 369.3                         19  100 16203 -70.7                      250  77 391.1       
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Hoping someone can help me with an office-type question, since people here look to me for weather advice. We're all in the office now (in Lutherville) and it's still just rain, though I know it will switch to frozen at some point. When is it supposed to end? I'm thinking about suggesting we just stay open all day, because the snow/rain/sleet will be over by afternoon commute time - but I know there will be pressure from some people to shut down as soon as it starts snowing.

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Hoping someone can help me with an office-type question, since people here look to me for weather advice. We're all in the office now (in Lutherville) and it's still just rain, though I know it will switch to frozen at some point. When is it supposed to end? I'm thinking about suggesting we just stay open all day, because the snow/rain/sleet will be over by afternoon commute time - but I know there will be pressure from some people to shut down as soon as it starts snowing.

 

I'd say you should stay open

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Hoping someone can help me with an office-type question, since people here look to me for weather advice. We're all in the office now (in Lutherville) and it's still just rain, though I know it will switch to frozen at some point. When is it supposed to end? I'm thinking about suggesting we just stay open all day, because the snow/rain/sleet will be over by afternoon commute time - but I know there will be pressure from some people to shut down as soon as it starts snowing.

at the company I worked for 20 years, one storm started at 8: am it snowed for 7 hrs. we finally closed at 3: pm and that was in washington DC

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I sure don't think the GSF had the best temp forecasts.  It had DCA almost a snow sounding at 12Z.  Here's the 00Z RAP. No models were as warm as what it is showing. 

Date: Analysis for 1200Z  3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1009    63   3.9   3.4  97  0.4   3.7  36   7 276.3 277.2 276.4 289.5  4.85  1 1000   134   2.8   2.6  99  0.2   2.7  37  13 275.9 276.7 275.8 288.4  4.60  2  950   546   0.3   0.3 100  0.0   0.3  62  26 277.5 278.2 276.0 288.8  4.11  3  900   980   1.2   1.1  99  0.1   1.1  97  24 282.7 283.5 279.3 295.5  4.59  4  850  1440   0.9   0.8  99  0.1   0.8 147  22 287.1 287.9 281.6 300.6  4.77  5  800  1930   2.9   2.9 100  0.0   2.9 198  38 294.3 295.3 285.8 311.5  5.91  6  750  2453   1.4   1.4 100  0.0   1.4 215  53 298.1 299.2 287.1 314.9  5.66  7  700  3006  -1.1  -1.1 100  0.0  -1.2 225  57 301.2 302.2 287.5 316.4  5.03  8  650  3595  -3.5  -3.7  99  0.2  -3.6 231  61 305.0 305.8 288.3 318.7  4.47  9  600  4225  -6.3  -7.2  94  0.9  -6.7 231  66 308.9 309.6 288.9 320.5  3.73 10  550  4902  -9.6 -11.1  89  1.4 -10.2 229  73 312.6 313.2 289.4 322.2  2.98 11  500  5632 -14.0 -15.3  89  1.4 -14.4 229  78 316.0 316.5 289.9 323.7  2.32 12  450  6423 -19.1 -20.7  87  1.6 -19.6 232  80 319.2 319.6 290.2 324.8  1.64 13  400  7290 -24.9 -27.2  81  2.3 -25.4 234  80 322.7 322.9 290.6 326.3  1.03 14  350  8246 -32.0 -34.8  76  2.8 -32.4 236  79 325.6 325.7 291.0 327.6  0.57 15  300  9313 -41.1 -44.5  70  3.3 -41.4 236  78 327.4 327.4 291.2 328.3  0.24 16  250 10523 -51.7                      238  95 329.3                         17  200 11927 -61.7                      244 114 335.1                         18  150 13731 -58.5                      254  99 369.3                         19  100 16203 -70.7                      250  77 391.1       

even Big Meadows at 2700' is 35 with rain right now

http://weather.weatherbug.com/weather-safety/online-weather-center/OnlineWeatherCenter.aspx?aid=2843

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