Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Both the HRRR and RAP, well, RAP2 I guess are showing a similar scenario of a weak 850 swirl running into central WV then sort of redeveloping/meandering by the cities. Combine that with the vort mostly passing to our north we're not going to easily resolve parts of the column until most if it is over. There could be a decent burst near or post 12pm (perhaps a full fledged flip is sooner, but that's about when we're "safe" above on those models) but looks like that might be centered DC north .. emphasis on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 39F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HRRR. The Euro better be really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HRRR. The Euro better be really good. hrrr_t850_washdc_13.png Oy, it is falling apart even up here. Oh well on to the .01 of freezing rain i am getting Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Temp dropping more rapidly since the rain moved in. Lost a degree in the last 15 minutes. Now 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Did the cold front cross your region? Once it does, temps will fall then you will transition to snow then you'll be golden At 39. Waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HRRR. The Euro better be really good. hrrr_t850_washdc_13.png Is the hrrrrrr better than the euro? Or nam or gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Is the hrrrrrr better than the euro? Or nam or gfs? On the whole no, but in some ways maybe. The hi res models are subject to significant error at times, especially on certain variables. But when you see them continually spit out similar scenarios they can be useful I think. The HRRR is killer for svr weather.. except when it busts hard (which it does).. but it's good enough to be noticeable. I have not used them a ton in general forecasting but have more in the past 6-12 mo or so and think the results are decent if you know what to use and what to toss. Their general scenario makes sense overall. We'll be fighting warming at least close to the cities much of the time given the midlevels. There is also not a lot of good cold air close by to tap. There's some once you get into PA a ways but I don't think we will effectively tap that till it's too late around here. Again, mostly focused on DC proper... but I'd be worried N&W in the immediate county area and lean low on expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 38/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Please. Take this. I'm tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I know some people in my area that would be glad to take it go for it. Today was the first day that I saw the majority of roads not have snow on them since 1/26. That only lasted not even a day. I am sad panda. I'd love to give this to Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 go for it. Today was the first day that I saw the majority of roads not have snow on them since 1/26. That only lasted not even a day. I am sad panda. I'd love to give this to Ji. Send it all to DCA and to northern Virginia, including Ji. You miss seeing your roads because they are covered with snow? I should come up there and dig your entire city out of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 46/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LWX in on the extra bearish locally. Always good to bust with company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LWX in on the extra bearish locally. Always good to bust with company. When you bust with company it is always good because it is bustier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 When you bust with company it is always good because it is bustier. People focus too much on output vs what the model shows otherwise sometimes I think. I've thought all along these super high liquid totals are a little suspect. There may be a stripe of 1"+ qpf but the widespread 1.25"+ on some models seemed a fantasy all along in this setup. We'll probably get thumped at some pt.. it could mostly be a rain thumping for me. Following the vort is simplistic in the grand scheme but it usually works well and all guidance isn't too friendly for many of us in that regard on this one. With some luck the best will end up NW of Philly so they don't keep cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 People focus too much on output vs what the model shows otherwise sometimes I think. I've thought all along these super high liquid totals are a little suspect. There may be a stripe of 1"+ qpf but the widespread 1.25"+ on some models seemed a fantasy all along in this setup. We'll probably get thumped at some pt.. it could mostly be a rain thumping for me. Following the vort is simplistic in the grand scheme but it usually works well and all guidance isn't too friendly for many of us in that regard on this one. With some luck the best will end up NW of Philly so they don't keep cashing in. This is not trending well at all for our area as we close in. The HRRR and RAP keep going north with every run. I am at 2" on one and 3" on the other now and even if i get that it will most likely only be on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 People focus too much on output vs what the model shows otherwise sometimes I think. I've thought all along these super high liquid totals are a little suspect. There may be a stripe of 1"+ qpf but the widespread 1.25"+ on some models seemed a fantasy all along in this setup. We'll probably get thumped at some pt.. it could mostly be a rain thumping for me. Following the vort is simplistic in the grand scheme but it usually works well and all guidance isn't too friendly for many of us in that regard on this one. With some luck the best will end up NW of Philly so they don't keep cashing in. I wouldn't be shocked if we got wall to wall rain ending as a 20 minute period of snow/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 this system is so mild it reminds me of a spring storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is not trending well at all for our area as we close in. The HRRR and RAP keep going north with every run. I am at 2" on one and 3" on the other now and even if i get that it will most likely only be on grassy surfaces. I don't think they match up with radar. I'm not worried about precip missing us to the north, I'm worried about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 38/38 RAIN/Fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I wouldn't be shocked if we got wall to wall rain ending as a 20 minute period of snow/flurries. Definitely possible.. or no snow really. I think a best case for us is probably like a 1-3/2-4 hour window, perhaps 1 hour or so of it being snow that could do something. I make no claim to the HRRR's prowess late run but it is interesting to watch it progress hour to hour with the 850 "swirl". This last run totally screws us by keeping it a little stronger the whole way then running it right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Look at all that moisture coming at us from the wset southwest! If we could have had that on Jan 21 - we'd have seen two feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Actually, that's a pretty terrible run for everyone. I don't think I'd run to it per se but might be good for morale and the north/south split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lol 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Why am I up at 130 for this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Why am I up at 130 for this thing? This storm is over, what about Tuesday night?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This storm is over, what about Tuesday night?.Sucky for me probably. I'll look in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sucky for me probably. I'll look in the morning. You are the best, sweet dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 meh.. we northerners were due for a bust. Can't win every time, even in a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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