gymengineer Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ha, was going to amend to put something about the DC hills. Generally the same, but perhaps up to a slushy 1"? I admit to still being rather confused as to where things will set up but things look pretty bad locally at this point even without the memory of recent busts for similar issues. I honestly lean more to the nothing than the accum part but it's not impossible should we flip and get rates.. so it's like begging for a reverse bust maybe. In my opinion, which is going to be a bit out there, sleet is actually a pretty good precip type to root for during the heaviest rates for downtown DC. We've seen what a heavy sleet dump can do that snow cannot in an asphalt jungle--- coat all surfaces efficiently around the freezing mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 In my opinion, which is going to be a bit out there, sleet is actually a pretty good precip type to root for during the heaviest rates for downtown DC. We've seen what a heavy sleet dump can do that snow cannot in an asphalt jungle--- coat all surfaces efficiently around the freezing mark.Actually.. Went over to Matt's for the SB with Randy and we talked about sleet maybe being a good option in an event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ha, was going to amend to put something about the DC hills. Generally the same, but perhaps up to a slushy 1"? I admit to still being rather confused as to where things will set up but things look pretty bad locally at this point even without the memory of recent busts for similar issues. I honestly lean more to the nothing than the accum part but it's not impossible should we flip and get rates.. so it's like begging for a reverse bust maybe. In this case (kinda like 1/21) nw dc will do much better than dca if you can get the flip. Meso stuff can surprise and its super sketchy inside of the beltway. What's your elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 41/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Actually.. Went over to Matt's for the SB with Randy and we talked about sleet maybe being a good option in an event like this. That's why the NAM didn't shift my opinion one way or another in terms of impact in our area.... even mostly sleet out in the 'burbs will still be a nasty outcome if it's .6" liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 41/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ahh. We were "attacked"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 In this case (kinda like 1/21) nw dc will do much better than dca if you can get the flip. Meso stuff can surprise and its super sketchy inside of the beltway. What's your elevation? I thought it was close to 300 but looks like 215 give or take. I used to live higher up.. there's a hill right next to me. But, I am outside the city center and in most ways it acts like a close-in suburb when it comes to UHI etc.. so in general I'm going to do considerably better than DCA. Simple answer here is probably that at this point I don't expect to get any lengthy meaningful snow after a very prolonged period of wet. It's possible I'm wrong.. it would only take a minor adjustment. I think however that almost all variables point to that thought for the city, regardless of location. I would probably also begin to think of running low in closer in areas north and west at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I thought it was close to 300 but looks like 215 give or take. I used to live higher up.. there's a hill right next to me. But, I am outside the city center and in most ways it acts like a close-in suburb when it comes to UHI etc.. so in general I'm going to do considerably better than DCA. Simple answer here is probably that at this point I don't expect to get any lengthy meaningful snow after a very prolonged period of wet. It's possible I'm wrong.. it would only take a minor adjustment. I think however that almost all variables point to that thought for the city, regardless of location. I would probably also begin to think of running low in closer in areas north and west at the least.Stop typing and clear the gay porn out of the obs thread dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
litigator01 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah...you really don't want to know what's being observed over there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 45.4/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 41/37. Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 41F and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 48. Dp 44. Lol at the reactions of the porn attack after a crap super bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 41/37. Rain. Did the cold front cross your region? Once it does, temps will fall then you will transition to snow then you'll be golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Light rain 40.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 48. Dp 44. Lol at the reactions of the porn attack after a crap super bowl I missed it, I was too busy looking at the national radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So...I'm at 40.3*...How do you think I'll do when the storm really gets to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Mid 30's out towards cumberland...even at low elevations. Colder air is coming. Morgantown is now down into the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So...I'm at 40.3*...How do you think I'll do when the storm really gets to me? You ask A LOT of IMBY questions. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I missed it, I was too busy looking at the national radar you are better off. calm winds, smells like rain. Just hoping to see some flakes at the end. I will be happy with some sleet, which we do very well here in Woodbridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 42ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Both the HRRR and RAP, well, RAP2 I guess are showing a similar scenario of a weak 850 swirl running into central WV then sort of redeveloping/meandering by the cities. Combine that with the vort mostly passing to our north we're not going to easily resolve parts of the column until most if it is over. There could be a decent burst near or post 12pm (perhaps a full fledged flip is sooner, but that's about when we're "safe" above on those models) but looks like that might be centered DC north .. emphasis on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 39F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HRRR. The Euro better be really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HRRR. The Euro better be really good. hrrr_t850_washdc_13.png Oy, it is falling apart even up here. Oh well on to the .01 of freezing rain i am getting Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Temp dropping more rapidly since the rain moved in. Lost a degree in the last 15 minutes. Now 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Did the cold front cross your region? Once it does, temps will fall then you will transition to snow then you'll be golden At 39. Waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HRRR. The Euro better be really good. hrrr_t850_washdc_13.png Is the hrrrrrr better than the euro? Or nam or gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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