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Monday Mauler Obs Thread


Avdave

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DCA mostly in line with MOS so far 48/32.. neither NAM or GFS (0z not out yet) MOS gets us past the mid-30s with precip.  I think no accum to a slushy messy 0.5" or so is the most likely option at this point. 

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For a true test, what's your forecast for Tenleytown? ;)

Ha, was going to amend to put something about the DC hills.  Generally the same, but perhaps up to a slushy 1"?  I admit to still being rather confused as to where things will set up but things look pretty bad locally at this point even without the memory of recent busts for similar issues.  I honestly lean more to the nothing than the accum part  but it's not impossible should we flip and get rates.. so it's like begging for a reverse bust maybe.

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Ha, was going to amend to put something about the DC hills.  Generally the same, but perhaps up to a slushy 1"?  I admit to still being rather confused as to where things will set up but things look pretty bad locally at this point even without the memory of recent busts for similar issues.  I honestly lean more to the nothing than the accum part  but it's not impossible should we flip and get rates.. so it's like begging for a reverse bust maybe.

In my opinion, which is going to be a bit out there, sleet is actually a pretty good precip type to root for during the heaviest rates for downtown DC. We've seen what a heavy sleet dump can do that snow cannot in an asphalt jungle--- coat all surfaces efficiently around the freezing mark.  

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In my opinion, which is going to be a bit out there, sleet is actually a pretty good precip type to root for during the heaviest rates for downtown DC. We've seen what a heavy sleet dump can do that snow cannot in an asphalt jungle--- coat all surfaces efficiently around the freezing mark.

Actually.. Went over to Matt's for the SB with Randy and we talked about sleet maybe being a good option in an event like this.
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Ha, was going to amend to put something about the DC hills. Generally the same, but perhaps up to a slushy 1"? I admit to still being rather confused as to where things will set up but things look pretty bad locally at this point even without the memory of recent busts for similar issues. I honestly lean more to the nothing than the accum part but it's not impossible should we flip and get rates.. so it's like begging for a reverse bust maybe.

In this case (kinda like 1/21) nw dc will do much better than dca if you can get the flip. Meso stuff can surprise and its super sketchy inside of the beltway. What's your elevation?

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Actually.. Went over to Matt's for the SB with Randy and we talked about sleet maybe being a good option in an event like this.

That's why the NAM didn't shift my opinion one way or another in terms of impact in our area.... even mostly sleet out in the 'burbs will still be a nasty outcome if it's .6" liquid equivalent.

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In this case (kinda like 1/21) nw dc will do much better than dca if you can get the flip. Meso stuff can surprise and its super sketchy inside of the beltway. What's your elevation?

 

I thought it was close to 300 but looks like 215 give or take. I used to live higher up.. there's a hill right next to me.  But, I am outside the city center and in most ways it acts like a close-in suburb when it comes to UHI etc.. so in general I'm going to do considerably better than DCA.  Simple answer here is probably that at this point I don't expect to get any lengthy meaningful snow after a very prolonged period of wet. It's possible I'm wrong.. it would only take a minor adjustment. I think however that almost all variables point to that thought for the city, regardless of location.  I would probably also begin to think of running low in closer in areas north and west at the least. 

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I thought it was close to 300 but looks like 215 give or take. I used to live higher up.. there's a hill right next to me. But, I am outside the city center and in most ways it acts like a close-in suburb when it comes to UHI etc.. so in general I'm going to do considerably better than DCA. Simple answer here is probably that at this point I don't expect to get any lengthy meaningful snow after a very prolonged period of wet. It's possible I'm wrong.. it would only take a minor adjustment. I think however that almost all variables point to that thought for the city, regardless of location. I would probably also begin to think of running low in closer in areas north and west at the least.

Stop typing and clear the gay porn out of the obs thread dude.
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