Epps88 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We will have to monitor this storm closely. What are your takes on this storm? Still to far out for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Too early for a thread this far out but hope it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think its a little premature for this thread.. there is no run to run consitency.. the models are all over the place with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Really? Well... Anything from thunderstorms to ice storm to nothing, that's all I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Would feel alot better if title had rain inserted before storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We will have to monitor this storm closely. What are your takes on this storm? Still to far out for details.Hi wilkesBrodud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 18z GEFS was interesting, showing a SLP over WV and a another SLP off the GA/SC coast day 7/8, must be a few members showing a coastal or a miller b that transfers way south. Hard to imagine not getting a miller b though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 18z GEFS was interesting, showing a SLP over WV and a another SLP off the GA/SC coast day 7/8, must be a few members showing a coastal or a miller b that transfers way south. Hard to imagine not getting a miller b though.Miller B can still lead to a CAD slop fest for normal areas, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Bold first post, but welcome! (Or are you our favorite guy Wilkes?) The 18z GEFS was interesting, showing a SLP over WV and a another SLP off the GA/SC coast day 7/8, must be a few members showing a coastal or a miller b that transfers way south. Hard to imagine not getting a miller b though. Miller Bs can work nicely for ice storms. Theoretically, they can work okay for snow if the transfer happens far enough south, but that almost never happens (February 1996 being a nice exception, though there was a lot of sleet from that one). MBY also got 2-4" from Snowmageddon, but that changed to rain for all in N NC/S VA soon thereafter. Was December 2002 a Miller B? EDIT: Yes, I guess so: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Miller B can still lead to a CAD slop fest for normal areas, yes? Dec. '02 Ice storm was a Miller B, from case study: "Moisture streamed into North Carolina Wednesday (12/4) lifting over the surface based cold dry air. As frozen and freezing precipitation was falling across central North Carolina, the Wednesday evening surface map revealed a so-called Miller type “B” pattern of cyclogenesis. This pattern is characterized by a CAD wedge separating dual lows i.e, a well inland and a developing secondary coastal low along a commonly shared frontal boundary." Look at that CAD, beautiful http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/20021205.06.sus.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Actually at least for CAD regions of NC, the GFS has been fairly consistent for the 8th storm on the 06z, 12z, and 18z. Sure there's been some variance, but essentially the some precip tries to come in early before the high slides off the coast. But all 3 runs essentially say everything goes over to rain for the last half of the storm, and that half is a pretty hefty qpf. Euro has been pretty inconsistent with 2 pretty distinctly different outcomes on today's 00z and 12z runs. So based on the GFS and Euro, things have not trended in a good direction for those wanting some sort of wintry precip. Just haven't paid that much attention to the Canadian. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 As far as I'm concerned, Miller B isn't necesarily bad. If hp holds in long enough and the transfer happens soon enough, we can get a decent storm with all frozen/freezing. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Actually at least for CAD regions of NC, the GFS has been fairly consistent for the 8th storm on the 06z, 12z, and 18z. Sure there's been some variance, but essentially the some precip tries to come in early before the high slides off the coast. But all 3 runs essentially say everything goes over to rain for the last half of the storm, and that half is a pretty hefty qpf. Euro has been pretty inconsistent with 2 pretty distinctly different outcomes on today's 00z and 12z runs. So based on the GFS and Euro, things have not trended in a good direction for those wanting some sort of wintry precip. Just haven't paid that much attention to the Canadian. TW So far as I can tell from a quick look, the 12z Canadian didn't really have a storm at all (rain or snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Blizzard of 96 was a Miller B, but probably one of the rare ones that actually worked out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Bold first post, but welcome! (Or are you our favorite guy Wilkes?) Miller Bs can work nicely for ice storms. Theoretically, they can work okay for snow if the transfer happens far enough south, but that almost never happens (February 1996 being a nice exception, though there was a lot of sleet from that one). MBY also got 2-4" from Snowmageddon, but that changed to rain for all in N NC/S VA soon thereafter. Was December 2002 a Miller B? EDIT: Yes, I guess so: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ I thought Jan 2010 was a miller b, we mixed, almost always mix with miller b's this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Miller B can still lead to a CAD slop fest for normal areas, yes? Definitely, this storm is definitely a good CAD setup with big snow the NE will receive this week will only help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I thought Jan 2010 was a miller b, we mixed, almost always mix with miller b's this far south. I had forgotten about that. The RAH event summary page describes it as a hybrid Miller A/B. That was all-snow here until towards the end to the tune of 7-8", but areas further south had a lot of mixing issues with sleet and even ZR in the southeastern Piedmont and coastal plain. ...The event followed a hybrid "Miller A/B" surface pattern in which a primary storm system tracks northeastward across the Southeast toward the southern Appalachians with other weak areas of low pressure or troughs extending north and northeast from the low center. This pattern results in a somewhat complex vertical thermal pattern with broad areas of mixed precipitation... http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/sfc.10013015.sus.gif You can see some definite CAD, too. IIRC, temperatures were in the 20s for that one, falling into the low 20s by the end of the event. It stayed cloudy and in the low 20s for the entire next day, so the roads were a solid sheet of snow/ice/sleet. Of course, like any classic NC winter storm, we torched the day prior, IIRC. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thought showed a good trend today for the GEFS, top is 0z from last night all the way through to 18z at the bottom... --0z-- ---6z --- ---12z--- ---18z--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hi wilkesBrodud. Indeed. Can we lock or delete this thread on principle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Indeed. Can we lock or delete this thread on principle? Or we can just start another one and eventually this one will die. Or just not post in this one and wait til the models get out of their ADD phase. Course with the last one it took a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah I guess it was a bold first post. lol. Ive followed the weather most of my life. If only we can get a snowstorm like january of 2000 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah I guess it was a bold first post. lol. Ive followed the weather most of my life. If only we can get a snowstorm like january of 2000 again.Where are you in VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Where are you in VA? Danville, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Check out @Wright_Weather's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wright_Weather/status/429786878498193408 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Indeed the pieces are there... but I have a feeling with a retreating HP (usually the case) it'll be an I-40 or NC/VA border special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Right now im definitely seeing signs of more ice than snow. #VA/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Right now im definitely seeing signs of more ice than snow. #VA/NC so for South Carolina, it would basically be an all rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Right now im definitely seeing signs of more ice than snow. #VA/NC Who's tweet did you steal this time, Casey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Right now im definitely seeing signs of more ice than snow. #VA/NC no ice, just snow please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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