Jrad08 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going with 6-8 as long as we stay out of mixing for I-70 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I doubt it. the wave still has some to slow and that will take care of that. model performance at this range is looking pretty poor compared to what it "wants" to show. True. But short of the southern stream wave trending stronger (still plausible with better sampling, though the window is closing), the flow's just too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going with 6-8 as long as we stay out of mixing for I-70 corridor more work to be done for that. NAM is now all frozen though.....just not snow. Hopefully not freezing rain either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm going to call 2-4 for the Chicago area. Seems like a reasonable way to go. The big dog is coming, but this one won't be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 this storm pretty much gets lamer each run 3rd and long? In terms of a 'decent' hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 IND likes Hoosier's call of 5-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 LOT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS (SUNDAY) AFTERNOONIS PROGGED TO CURVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGHMONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROPAGATINGTHROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BECOMING SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELYTILTED WHILE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ONTUESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS REASONABLE WITH THIS FEATURE AT THISDISTANCE...THOUGH AS WPC NOTES THE WRF-NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS APPEAR TOBE TOO DEEP WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND REMAINS A QUICKER OUTLIERALOFT. COMPARING THE VARIOUS OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...HAVE GENERALLYUSED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/GEM FOR SFC LOW TRACK/TIMING AND QPFWITH THIS SYSTEM. CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS INITIALLY DEVELOPS ANELONGATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAYAFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE...WHICHTHEN DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID/UPPER OHIOVALLEY TOWARD SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.FAIRLY UNIFORM GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A WEST-EAST BAND OF SNOW WILLDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST-CENTRAL IL EASTWARD ACROSSMAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALEASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A FAVORABLELOCATION FOR STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE BENEATH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCEREGION OF THE UPPER JET MAX (ACTUALLY SOME INDICATION OF A BRIEFCOUPLED JET STRUCTURE BETWEEN LEFT EXIT OF APPROACHING JET STREAKAND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF STRENGTHENING OVER PRE-EXISTING JET MAXIMAOVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION). STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL MOIST ADVECTIONDEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERVALUES PUSHING 0.50 INCHES INT CENTRAL IL BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITHSOME INDICATION OF MESOSCALE BANDING PRODUCING 0.25 QPF AMOUNTS INTHAT NARROW AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. BEST JET DYNAMICS AND VORTICITYADVECTION SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AREAREMAINS WITHIN DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH EVENTUALLYPULLS OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURINGWEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING SNOW TO TAPER OFF. BLENDED QPF AS NOTEDCOMBINED WITH 12:1 TO 14:1 SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS THROUGH THE EVENTYIELDS A DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL FORECAST RANGING FROM 3-3.5" AROUNDROCKFORD...TO A STRIPE OF 6-7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERSOF COUNTIES OR SO. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE WPC WINTERWEATHER WEATHER DESK AMOUNTS...THOUGH ULTIMATELY MAY VERY WELL SEE ATIGHTER GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. WITHNORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE WE COULD SEE SOME MINORLAKE-ENHANCEMENT INTO NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH NOT A PARTICULARLYFAVORABLE SET-UP AS IN ADDITION TO H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -10/-12C THELAKE DOES HAVE CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER OVER THE WESTERN SHORE AREASAND CLIMATOLOGICAL COLD WATER TEMPS. WINDS DO LOOK TO GUST ABOVE20 KT AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOMEBLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW LIKELY. SNOWFALL THEN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BYLATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LINGERING LAKEEFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THE IL/IN STATE LINEAREA INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONEXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. CONTEMPLATED WATCH ISSUANCE FOR SOUTHERNCOUNTIES...THOUGH WITH START OF EVENT STILL LATE 4TH/5TH PERIODS ANDIN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO THE SOUTH/EAST HAVE DECIDEDNOT TO HOIST HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 important part from IND ... ADDITIONALLY...DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER GIVES PAUSE TO THE WEAKER MODEL PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG...INDICATING A HEALTHY SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION TO OVERALL SYSTEM FORCING...AND LOW/MID LEVEL MODEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF BANDING AND THUS LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12km NAM Can't post these anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DVN says around 5" for the I-80 corridor. I think more like 3-4". Best snows of 4-7" should line up from far southeast Iowa to Peoria, and through about the northern 1/3 of Indiana. DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILLNEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS THE SNOW CONTINUESTO FALL AND WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSECONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFFWEDNESDAY MORNING AND I WILL BE GOING DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWAMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND5 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND 6 TO 7 INCHES IN OURSOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...THESE NUMBERS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SET IN CONCRETE JUST YET.SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD RANGE FROM 13:1 TO 15:1 DURING THIS EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Can't post these anymore And why is that? It's only the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 3rd and long? In terms of a 'decent' hit. not sure what your decent criteria is but 1-3 NW to SE sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs came in juicy/snowy here. Only one member below 4" with a mean of 9" the regular 12z NAM came in with 14-15" for Toledo. So I suppose the bullseye may be up there with more than 9". GFS goes with a broadbrush 5-8" across Ohio. I suppose GFS is seeing reduced possibility of freezing rain/sleet. I think freezing rain and sleet will be a real concern for some of the Ohio Valley. Probably not the north tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 not sure what your decent criteria is but 1-3 NW to SE sounds right What is Joe's criteria? 3 M's? <3" Minor 3-6" Moderate 6+" Major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And why is that? It's only the NAM. Well for one nobody on here can see them if you haven't noticed and the guy in charge of WxBell changed something so you couldn't link it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 not sure what your decent criteria is but 1-3 NW to SE sounds right I'd go 3-4 for the city itself. Probably 2-3" up by Geos, and 4-6 down in the Kankakee/Valpo areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'd go 3-4 for the city itself. Probably 2-3" up by Geos, and 4-6 down in the Kankakee/Valpo areas. sure, as LOT mentioned, northern gradient will likely be tighter than modeled. SE should do ok but far NW could be looking at a DAB situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What is Joe's criteria? 3 M's? <3" Minor 3-6" Moderate 6+" Major yeah, i think that's right. LOT wise, this is a minor event for all but Vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 sure, as LOT mentioned, northern gradient will likely be tighter than modeled. SE should do ok but far NW could be looking at a DAB situation. Hopefully that high to the north doesn't put too much of a squeeze on the northern end. So far I'm not seeing too much indicating there's going to be a quick drop off on the north side, but unfortunately it's something to keep an eye on in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well for one nobody on here can see them if you haven't noticed and the guy in charge of WxBell changed something so you couldn't link it. Well if I have something to show then I'll screen capture the image and save it. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well for one nobody on here can see them if you haven't noticed and the guy in charge of WxBell changed something so you couldn't link it. I can see it. Yesterday I couldn't though. We're still allowed to post them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hopefully that high to the north doesn't put too much of a squeeze on the northern end. So far I'm not seeing too much indicating there's going to be a quick drop off on the north side, but unfortunately it's something to keep an eye on in subsequent runs. totally, it's not showing up on the models but quite a few offices have mentioned as much in their AFDs and if we aren't talking about something more wrapped up (even if south) it makes intuitive sense...especially further east as the vort shears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 What is Joe's criteria? 3 M's? <3" Minor 3-6" Moderate 6+" Major That's the correct level-age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 totally, it's not showing up on the models but quite a few offices have mentioned as much in their AFDs and if we aren't talking about something more wrapped up (even if south) it makes intuitive sense...especially further east as the vort shears out. Might have to issue a pissy-post watch for areas along and north of I-80, with 30% probs north of highway 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREF plumes at YYZ are excellent. There's one lone member at 1.3" and then the next lowest one is 4.3". Mean = 7.6". A couple of nut jobs over 12". I haven't had much time for the SREFs in the past but this year, at least locally, they've been excellent. Euro ENS mean also looking much better compared to the 0z run. Has 0.3-0.4" of QPF for YYZ. Ratio's look to be solidly above 10:1 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 First take from LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 gfs is locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS down about 0.10" or so compared to the 12z for QCA. Heading in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 looks like convective feedback issues is causing the problems with wave handlement. You can see this by the models putting the low around the convection to its southeast causing distortions. Thus everything needs to be tighter and further northwest to match the flow. I suspect their will be adjustments once its fully sampled. Models are closing off the Southern stream and thus the northern stream is weak and killed off. Pattern isnt as progressive as before, so this storm has room to develop more thoroughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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