Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 yeah, doesn't look like a major shift SE is in the cards so far, if anything signs of going back NW. yeah...maybe in between last night's 00Z and today's 12Z runs somewhere....SE ridge as a little more beef to it compared to the 12Z as well thru H22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 yeah, doesn't look like a major shift SE is in the cards so far, if anything signs of going back NW. Yeah the wave is for sure stronger at 15/18hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 kicker wave coming into the PAC NW at H30 is stronger too compared to the 12Z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 differences much more minor by 18z monday...probably not going to be more than a noise shift either way, which i guess is still noteworthy given the NAMs extreme outlier status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs came in juicy/snowy here. Only one member below 4" with a mean of 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 15Z SREF plume ups JOT to 7 inches for the mean and added a fourth member to the 11+ category...still has one with 0 inches...but all the rest are 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 all momentum lost by 6z tuesday, weaker at 500/700/850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 coming in wetter in the cold sector thru H42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 15Z SREF plume ups JOT to 7 inches for the mean and added a fourth member to the 11+ category...still has one with 0 inches...but all the rest are 4+ Good ORD cluster between 4.5"-6.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Good ORD cluster between 4.5"-6.0" they're looking solid for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 all momentum lost by 6z tuesday, weaker at 500/700/850 I think that's more noise than anything as you said. This run still looks like it's going to pound for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Only main difference I see through 42 is that it's a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 all momentum lost by 6z tuesday, weaker at 500/700/850 I'd argue it's better at 9z Tue. Look at the 546dm height line and how on the 12z run the kink is more displaced to the NE of the wave but on this run at the same time the s/w trof is more aligned together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Only main difference I see through 42 is that it's a bit slower. PRobably a good thing going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll say it ends up a tick NW of the 12z run but not like the 6z run. Wave looks better at 42hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Only main difference I see through 42 is that it's a bit slower. No doubt it is through 54hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREF plumes at YYZ are excellent. There's one lone member at 1.3" and then the next lowest one is 4.3". Mean = 7.6". A couple of nut jobs over 12". I haven't had much time for the SREFs in the past but this year, at least locally, they've been excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z NAM took another tick SE if anything. It's certainly not NW. It's definitely not as amped either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 15Z SREF plume ups JOT to 7 inches for the mean and added a fourth member to the 11+ category...still has one with 0 inches...but all the rest are 4+ yep, nice little cluster around 5.5" at JOT. Not a blockbuster, but I'd take it. Still hoping the NAM scores a coup though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z NAM took another tick SE if anything. It's certainly not NW. It's definitely not as amped either. correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z NAM took another tick SE if anything. It's certainly not NW. Initially, thought it was just a timing thing but by 54 you can see the ul wave is not as amped up. Sfc low is weaker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Band of 12+ again on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 sharp cutoffs north and south for the snow swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Initially, thought it was just a timing thing but by 54 you can see the ul wave is not as amped up. Sfc low is weaker as well. You would think with the shortwave being a bit slower and the heights being a tad higher, we would have saw a somewhat stronger solution from the 12z NAM. But between the retrograding crap in canada and a relatively unimpressive southern stream wave, the other variables just weren't enough to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 yeah...maybe in between last night's 00Z and today's 12Z runs somewhere....SE ridge as a little more beef to it compared to the 12Z as well thru H22 With the PNA back in it's negative phase we should start seeing a little more se ridging which the models might not be seeing yet. There is no -nao block either. 9 out of 10 times nw shifts happen with a -PNA/+NAO and se a bit when it involves a +PNA. No guarantee it happens but if there was a time for one this would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 sharp cutoffs north and south for the snow swath much more believable than the wide spread the wealth stuff we've been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Today/tonight's system is probably what ultimately ****s everything up for us. It wasn't even modeled a couple days ago, which is probably why the models had more amped/NW solutions with the 4th-5th storm that they do now, as the heights with the SE ridge had more room to breath/rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 this storm pretty much gets lamer each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 3.3" first call here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Sticking with my 2-4" call for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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