Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I like 4-8" for LAF too. Would be a nice event. But, I think north of here does a little better. Not due to mixing here, but the models seem insistent on getting LAF off to a slower start than those to the north...with the "front end" snows. Ratios should be a better the further north you go too. Anyways, that's my call right now. Certainly subject to change many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking like our typical 3-4" refresher for the QC/eastern Iowa. Nothing special but a respectable event. Snow should be a bit fluffier than what we had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like areas south of the Ohio may pick up 4-5 inches tonight. If it hangs around until Tuesday what effect might that have on the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like areas south of the Ohio may pick up 4-5 inches tonight. If it hangs around until Tuesday what effect might that have on the track? No effect at all. Trajectory of this storm is not one to be moved by snow cover down south. Plus, I think it's a fallacy in general. Only thing snow cover can do, in marginal situations, is that ground temps may stay a bit cooler longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking like our typical 3-4" refresher for the QC/eastern Iowa. Nothing special but a respectable event. Snow should be a bit fluffier than what we had yesterday. going with the same thing although a little drier here further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking like a classic IL-IN-OH snow event...nothing incredible but solid 6-10 inch swath in the works. Edit...and southern MI of course Glad you fixed that ... For fun ... a first guess for IMBY ... 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No effect at all. Trajectory of this storm is not one to be moved by snow cover down south. Plus, I think it's a fallacy in general. Only thing snow cover can do, in marginal situations, is that ground temps may stay a bit cooler longer. That's what I thought, but it was my last card and I had to play it. It might keep us in the zr a bit longer maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Since GHD has been mentioned a lot, the strength of the surface high coming down into the northern tier is similar to that storm, but the surface low with GHD was deeper. Also, there's a little more separation between the high and low as currently progged so the gradient is not as tight. Still have a nice pressure gradient which will lead to breezy conditions but not GHD type winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GEFS with excellent agreement with the OP, a couple SE, a couple NW but neither by a large amount. Excellent global consensus remains intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GEFS with excellent agreement with the OP, a couple SE, a couple NW but neither by a large amount. Excellent global consensus remains intact. Yeah. Now that the NAM has put the crack pipe aside (until the next storm) the model consensus has become pretty good all things considered. Don't expect much change with the new Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Models depicting some reduced stability aloft. NAM might've gone a little nuts with totals but don't think we can write off the possibility of 12+ totals at least in localized fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z UKMET if not posted yet.... Looks similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This had the makings of something big originally, but seems to be an average winter storm at this point.. Not bad, not phenominal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Models depicting some reduced stability aloft. NAM might've gone a little nuts with totals but don't think we can write off the possibility of 12+ totals at least in localized fashion. Whoever can stay out of that dryslot Hope the models kill that off. Between there insistence on starting snow sorta late here and that dryslot, someone folks may be hard pressed to hit 3 inches. But still a ton of time for change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z Euro looks similar to the 00z to me, which isn't surprising. Drops 0.32" here, which would fluff up nicely to around 4". Nice 0.50" bullseye in southeast Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Much like many of the southwest systems this winter the Euro keeps the real heavy precip on the warm side of the storm, and doesn't really wrap anything too heavy into the cold sector. Just doesn't wrap up. Kind of like the storm that dumped a foot of rain on southern IL back in Jan, but only 2-4" type snows in the cold sector. This one isn't that extreme, but the concept is kind of similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Whoever can stay out of that dryslot Hope the models kill that off. Between there insistence on starting snow sorta late here and that dryslot, someone folks may be hard pressed to hit 3 inches. But still a ton of time for change Not sweating details like that at this point. I think we are kinda locked on to a general solution but could still see some track/strength adjustments once this gets into the RAOB network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Much like many of the southwest systems this winter the Euro keeps the real heavy precip on the warm side of the storm, and doesn't really wrap anything too heavy into the cold sector. Just doesn't wrap up. Kind of like the storm that dumped a foot of rain on southern IL back in Jan, but only 2-4" type snows in the cold sector. This one isn't that extreme, but the concept is kind of similar. And these southern stream systems will continue to be relatively crappy like that as long as the vorts continue to get sheared apart like this: versus this: or this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not sweating details like that at this point. I think we are kinda locked on to a general solution but could still see some track/strength adjustments once this gets into the RAOB network. Ya, good point. The NAM is the most amped up go figure so its showing a large dryslot. Most other models at this point are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm liking the 5-9" range for LAF at this point. Kinda big range but can narrow it down as it gets closer. Not really leaning toward one end or another right now. One thing that does seem pretty clear is that ratios won't be very good...maybe 12:1 or so. Still some chance that we have a brief period of mixing or that the mixing line gets a little too close for comfort but that possibility seems to be dwindling...for now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm liking the 5-9" range for LAF at this point. Kinda big range but can narrow it down as it gets closer. Not really leaning toward one end or another right now. One thing that does seem pretty clear is that ratios won't be very good...maybe 12:1 or so. Still some chance that we have a brief period of mixing or that the mixing line gets a little too close for comfort but that possibility seems to be dwindling...for now lol I like that general range up here as well thinking globals are a little too weak/sheared with wave of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is cold and pretty generous w/ precip totals here. Thinking 6-10" as an early call. Hopefully theres a shift north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I like that general range up here as well thinking globals are a little too weak/sheared with wave of interest. Is there any reason why all globals including the hi-res ecmwf would be too weak/sheared (ie wrong) with the sw? Or is this more of a hunch. In my experience, even in rare circumstance when the globals all trend towards the NAM, there were signs in the ensembles or some wavering but they've remained like a rock. Consistency and cross-model consensus goes a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Typical spread on the 9z SREF but some members hint at a stronger deformation band. Note there's some contamination in the Ohio Valley from the wave today/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is there any reason why all globals including the hi-res ecmwf would be too weak/sheared (ie wrong) with the sw? Or is this more of a hunch. In my experience, even in rare circumstance when the globals all trend towards the NAM, there were signs in the ensembles or some wavering but they've remained like a rock. Consistency and cross-model consensus goes a long way. It is a known bias with southern stream wave ejections. I'm not suggesting the nam will verify but think gfs and euro qpf might be a little underdone in cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z NAM initialized a little peppier with our vort (scraping the N. Cal coast), lets see if it translates much downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It is a known bias with southern stream wave ejections. I'm not suggesting the nam will verify but think gfs and euro qpf might be a little underdone in cold sector. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking like a 2-4" event here. P & C forecast holding steady with 70-90% chance of snow. I-70 corridor looks golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 northern and southern vorts looking a little stronger vs the 12Z thru H19 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 northern and southern vorts looking a little stronger vs the 12Z thru H19 ... yeah, doesn't look like a major shift SE is in the cards so far, if anything signs of going back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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