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February 4-5th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Based on w/v imagery and model plots, the upper wave may not get fully raob sampled til tomorrow's 12z or even 00z, maybe partially for the 00z runs this evening. I don't think it's time to throw in the towel yet for significant snows up this way, though the heaviest axis may very well end up a bit farther southeast like on January 5th.

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I told you, this one is yours! :P

 

Maybe I'm the one that needs to come to Lafayette. There are plenty of bars that would appreciate my return. 

 

I think I'd stay put, if I were you. Good probability we're gonna mix pretty hard here. But I'm sure the bars miss your contributions. :D

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I think I'd stay put, if I were you. Good probability we're gonna mix pretty hard here. But I'm sure the bars miss your contributions. :D

 

Yeah, their profits are probably sinking with me being graduated. Haha. I noticed they are finishing a Meijer on the far NW side. Would have been nice to have while I was there. It always took me forever to get all the way to the one by I-65. 

 

Anyway, IWX WRF is on the side with reality and says nu-uh-uh to those outrageous NAM totals...

 

d01_runtotal84_syn.png

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You just never quit do you? :lol:

 

I don't think it's a totally unreasonable call. I'm not talking rain nonsense. But even the other models have been close, to getting a sneaky warm layer in here at times...thus some mixing possible. To what degree is very much TBD. I think Hoosier shares these concerns as well. No harm in pointing out some possible wrenches, but obviously I'm pulling for the all snow scenario.

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This last system at this range had a southeast run that everyone immediately bought into, I had rain with my snow today so lets all get off the ledge for a moment...

 

The run SE with yesterday's system track/placement was accurate (look no further than the QPF numbers for example).

 

It was the WAA that was underdone. 

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12z GFS a little more "spread the wealth" on the northern/northwestern side, but no major changes from the 0z run.

 

Well, I take that back. Much better for locales out west in Iowa. Pretty good swath of 6"+ out there. And it really shorts us here, with just 3-5". But does better to the east in OH as well. Interesting.

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The run SE with yesterday's system track/placement was accurate (look no further than the QPF numbers for example).

 

It was the WAA that was underdone. 

Didn't the low track about over top of you or just north of you? That is definitely NW of where the models were going with it a few days out.

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Didn't the low track about over top of you or just north of you? That is definitely NW of where the models were going with it a few days out.

 

Well first, I'm pretty sure stebo was referring to the SE trend with the models prior to the onset of the system (when they corrected from the NW solutions).

 

Second, yes the low tracked overhead, just like the 00z NAM progged on 2/1/14. 00z NAM also showed all snow for DET.

 

pmsl_14020121.gif

NAM_221_2014020100_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GR

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Well first, I'm pretty sure stebo was referring to the SE trend with the models prior to the onset of the system (when they corrected from the NW solutions).

 

Second, yes the low tracked overhead, just like the 00z NAM progged on 2/1/14. 00z NAM also showed all snow for DET.

 

pmsl_14020121.gif

NAM_221_2014020100_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GR

 

No I am talking about when it jumped way South at this range only to immediately correct back NW, not the day of stuff, I am talking 3-4 days out.

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No I am talking about when it jumped way South at this range only to immediately correct back NW, not the day of stuff, I am talking 3-4 days out.

 

Except for the fact that models corrected the track back SE anyway (which verified in the end as shown above).

 

Anyways, whatever point you're trying to make is convoluted at best, probably on purpose just to simply be difficult. So whatever. 

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No I am talking about when it jumped way South at this range only to immediately correct back NW, not the day of stuff, I am talking 3-4 days out.

Yeah I was getting 6" on the NAM/GFS somewhere around that point with yesterdays storm. I would expect at least a correction north or west. Probably close to the ECM

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Except for the fact that models corrected the track back SE anyway (which verified in the end as shown above).

 

Anyways, whatever point you're trying to make is convoluted at best, probably on purpose just to simply be difficult. So whatever. 

No I am talking about the run that took it across southern Ohio that everyone immediately believed when it came out. Others understood the point I was making, nothing convoluted at all or trying to be difficult...

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Think Laffy Taffy ends up with 4-8" on this one. Here, probably around 2-5". Will go with 3.1" as a first call. My little forecasts have been abysmal, though, so I would assume we either end up with rain or 6+. I guess it's a good thing I went to school for finance/econ rather than meteorology. 

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