doc294 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That would score a yahtzee for me. The hospital I work in is in Wheeling! I see a different path every 5-10 minutes. I'm liking that euro. lol Almost certain it comes further nw then the GFS or euro ( Euro tracks it to Wheeling and a bit stronger vs 12z ) is showing but doubt it goes far enough nw to give you guys that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So sounds like the 0z Euro has gone northwest...thus, it's caution flag time for LAF. Never easy. Still plenty of room to work with for a nw trend. Models are mishandling the S/W and the northern stream and thus providing many implications on the track and strength of the storm. If you analyze the 500mb vort charts, you could pick out some errors that I think the models will correct in the coming day or two. Been a horrible season for the models. For example, the GGEM completely retrogrades the northern stream and kills it off. Will be interesting to see what happens when it gets fully sampled. Yep.. I mentioned this earlier in the case of the GFS. Yeah the stuff up in Canada will allow for a bit of a nw trend but not that much unless ofcourse the models have that wrong as well. It will be interesting to see what happens once it is fully sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still plenty of room to work with for a nw trend. Don't know how much more we can afford, looking at the maps Geos posted. Guess we'll hope for the best here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Don't know how much more we can afford, looking at the maps Geos posted. Guess we'll hope for the best here. On the euro the 850 zero line gets as close as the se side of Indianapolis and cuts over to Dayton, and then near Mt Vernon, OH. That is as far nw as it gets. Only far southern/se Ohio gets above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On the euro the 850 zero line gets as close as the se side of Indianapolis and cuts over to Dayton, and then near Mt Vernon, OH. That is as far nw as it gets. Only far southern/se Ohio gets above 32. One thing I've noticed at least on forecast soundings from other models is that the warm layer is centered around 800 mb, meaning that 850 mb maps could be deceiving. Not sure where the warm layer is on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On the euro the 850 zero line gets as close as the se side of Indianapolis and cuts over to Dayton, and then near Mt Vernon, OH. That is as far nw as it gets. Only far southern/se Ohio gets above 32. Thanks. Gonna be a fairly decent mix zone outside the all snow areas, if 2m temps stay below 32 for a good chunk of the region. Almost Jan 1999-like in that facet...though it was more snow over a larger area initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 One thing I've noticed at least on forecast soundings from other models is that the warm layer is centered around 800 mb, meaning that 850 mb maps could be deceiving. Not sure where the warm layer is on the Euro. Don't have those for the euro so not sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks. Gonna be a fairly decent mix zone outside the all snow areas, if 2m temps stay below 32 for a good chunk of the region. Almost Jan 1999-like in that facet...though it was more snow over a larger area initially. Does seem possible. Gonna be a nice feed from the gulf as this thing ejects out of the sw and will get some help via some se ridging ( can thank/blame the PNA going negative for encouraging it which is normal.. Why we get more nw trenders with -pna as long as the NAO stays +) which the GFS shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6z NAM not backing down with even higher totals of 12-16" across SE half of LOT CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 06z gfs se and stronger. Dumps almost a foot on southern ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6z NAM not backing down with even higher totals of 12-16" across SE half of LOT CWA it's a hair south and continues to have literally no support in the model universe so i'd expect 12z to continue in that direction. I've seen enough from the globals to tell me, the amped solution isn't happening. Congrats CMI-LAF-CLE. Another long duration light-mod hit seems about the best IA/IL/WI peeps can hope for. EDIT: LOTs latest afd more or less agrees on the strength of the strong global consensus. Toss the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 it's a hair south and continues to have literally no support in the model universe so i'd expect 12z to continue in that direction. I've seen enough from the globals to tell me, the amped solution isn't happening. Congrats CMI-LAF-CLE. Another long duration light-mod hit seems about the best IA/IL/WI peeps can hope for. EDIT: LOTs latest afd more or less agrees on the strength of the strong global consensus. Toss the NAM. 3rd and 18 for you.quad cities always good for hope: AND THUS FROM A FORCING AND MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 3-7 INCHES. WHAT WILL NEED MONITORING IS TYPICALLY THESE SYSTEMS COME OUT STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH. LONGER DURATION OF FORCING THEREBY SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT YET AND WOULD SAY THAT MORE CHANGES TO MODELS PROBABLY COMING IN NEXT 24+ HRS...AS THE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Alek you got a first call yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Alek you got a first call yet? 2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2.1 I might have waited one more run...plus not so sure the lake don't get involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 IWX forecaster's reasoning for the more SE solutions: DIFFICULTIES MOUNT AS 18 UTC TUE TO 12 UTC WED EVENT NEARS. NAM12INTO PICTURE WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FROM REMAINING CONSISTENTCLUSTER AS ITS SERN TX COASTAL SFC LOW EJECTION MARKEDLY PROGRESSIVEAND LEFT TRACK POSITIONED WITHIN A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED/LEFT TRACKMID TROPOSPHERIC HFC OF 170-210M. WHILE USUALLY A LEFT TRACKTREND/EVOLUTION JUMPED UPON SOME INIT CONCERNS BELIE TRENDING TOTHIS SOLUTION ATTM...FIRST OF WHICH IS LACK OF SLOWING EVO. FIRSTMAGNITUDE OF PRECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH EXTREME DRYNESS INSFC-500 MB LAYER TO PROMOTE EXTREME COLUMN COOLING/RIGHTWARD SHIFTTO LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT/PRES FALLS ALSO FAVOR THE SIMILAR ANDMORE VERTICALLY STACKED GFS/ECMWF FGEN PROFILES WITH RESULTANT/EXTREME DEEP UVM PROFILES AFTER DEEP LYR MOISTURE IS FULLY IN PLACEAS WELL ATTM. ADDITIONALLY LACK OF STRONG DOWNSTREAM HGHT BLOCKANOMALY DOES NOT PORTEND TO SIG LEFT TRACKING. NAM WOULD BRING MIXEDPRECIP INTO SERN CWA TUE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER SNOW TRACK FARTHER NWINTO HEART OF CWA. OF NOTE IS 06 UTC NAM BACKTRACK WITH DUALLOBED/TRIPLE POINT...WITH PRIMARY LOW TRACK THROUGH ERN KY NNEWDINTO WRN NY BY 12 UTC WED. AT SAME TIME PREFERRED STELLAR CONSISTENTECMWF INTO SWRN PA WITH SIMILARLY TRACKED GFS INITIATING MIDATLHANDOFF...WITH PIVOT OF JUST OVER 3 G/KG IN 1000-850MB LAYER THROUGHFAR SERN CWA AMID STRONG I290K ISENT ASCENT WITH STATICALLY UNSTABLELYR WITHIN HIGHLY ELEVATED/SATURATED DGZ. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PTYPE ASALL SNOW AND CONT TO FOCUS ON TRENDS BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY MIXEDPTYPE TO SERN PORTION OF CWA. SHOULD TRENDS CONT...EVENTUAL WS WATCHISSUANCE PSBL WITHIN 24 HRS. EDIT: I like where I'm sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I might have waited one more run...plus not so sure the lake don't get involved. I'm completely riding the globals and tossing the NAM, it's crap and going to come SE at 12z. I'm also factoring in the globals being at least a little to potentially significantly too wet this far NW of the surface low (as mentioned by numerous surrounding offices in their AFDs). As far as the lake, doesn't really look that favorable but i guess that could change with a more developed system out east. EDIT: great thoughts by IWX btw. All of the offices mentioning potential NW shifts are limited to it seems like this happens sometimes kind of reasoning. This seems much more sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm completely riding the globals and tossing the NAM, it's crap and going to come SE at 12z. I'm also factoring in the globals being at least a little to potentially significantly too wet this far NW of the surface low (as mentioned by numerous surrounding offices in their AFDs). As far as the lake, doesn't really look that favorable but i guess that could change with a more developed system out east. EDIT: great thoughts by IWX btw. All of the offices mentioning potential NW shifts are limited to it seems like this happens sometimes kind of reasoning. This seems much more sound. Hoping that your punt gets blocked but NAM by itself not a good place for us to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z NAM digging less and weaker at H5 by 12z Monday The SE trend has begun...weaker vort, trough isn't as sharp, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z nam south again nice hit for central IL and NW In thru 66hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 trends looking great for CMI-LAF-CLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lol lock in that 12z NAM run for northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lol lock in that 12z NAM run for northern Indiana. enjoy your 18-20 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Oh goodie, the NAM has us in a raging icestorm. The trend, however, is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Would love to see the GFS come a little NW just for the lol factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 not that it needs to be said, but the NAM is far from done trending SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Haha, congrats northern Indiana. Wow. I just need to drive 60 miles north to get into double digits. Classic nuclear NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Haha, congrats northern Indiana. Wow. Classic nuclear NAM run. Certainly lol-worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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