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February 4-5th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling deadly or Prior/Wood?

 

Non-weather, but Prior/Wood...depressing. :(

 

Have any Euro predictions?  I'm thinking it remains pretty close to the 12z version.  A dramatic shift northwest like the NAM, or weaker southeast would make things even more interesting though.

 

Nothing radical? I don't know. Seems the 12z run was in step with its ensembles. But yeah, it'll be a decent clue to as to where this thing may be heading. Maybe. :lol:

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I don't think anyone is comfortable with any one solution right now. But, it's the NAM against the world right now. Maybe a compromise, to an extent, is the best call at this point.  

 

Personally, I'd rather avoid the ones that show me mixing. You know? ;)  :D

 

 

I hear you.

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Stakes are high here. Don't want to miss one. Suppose that's true for a lot of people.

 

I think I may have lost Hoosier...as he may have bought fully into the local met's call of all mix. Sad times.

 

 

Almost certain it comes further nw then the GFS or euro ( Euro tracks it to Wheeling and a bit stronger vs 12z )  is showing but doubt it goes far enough nw to give you guys that problem.

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Almost certain it comes further nw then the GFS or euro ( Euro tracks it to Wheeling and a bit stronger vs 12z )  is showing but doubt it goes far enough nw to give you guys that problem.

 

So sounds like the 0z Euro has gone northwest...thus, it's caution flag time for LAF. Never easy.

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Almost certain it comes further nw then the GFS or euro ( Euro tracks it to Wheeling and a bit stronger vs 12z )  is showing but doubt it goes far enough nw to give you guys that problem.

 

Models are mishandling the S/W and the northern stream and thus providing many implications on the track and strength of the storm. If you analyze the 500mb vort charts, you could pick out some errors that I think the models will correct in the coming day or two. Been a horrible season for the models. For example, the GGEM completely retrogrades the northern stream and kills it off. 

 

Will be interesting to see what happens when it gets fully sampled.

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To me the Euro looks pretty similar to the 12z version for here.  Not a huge storm, but a long duration light to moderate event.  Since no other model besides the NAM is going with an amped solution I think it's time to start leaning toward the more conservative models.  Not too late for an amped up version to win out, but we're getting to the point that it's starting to look a little unlikely.

 

Even the more conservative models would fluff up a nice 3-5" type of event for northern IL/eastern Iowa with 15:1 LSRs.  So if that works out to be true it will be another in a long line of light to moderate events, but a pretty impressive refresher at least.

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