Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I suspect it won't start snowing here until 11pm or even later. Even STL was reporting nothing at the last obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I suspect it won't start snowing here until 11pm or even later. Even STL was reporting nothing at the last obs. yeah obs to the south suck for the most part but 11 pm would be pretty late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM HIRES is a huge hit. 1.5 inches of qpf in my area. Obviously way overdone but looks like high end warning criteria snowfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 anyone know where i can get data about snowiest years for cities in IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks pretty good right now. wv1.jpg Yep, nice big snow shield on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1138 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MUCH OF MO...FAR SERN NEB AND SRNIA...SRN/CNTRL ILCONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 041738Z - 042345ZSUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN KS AND MO...ANDCONTINUE EXPANDING NWD/EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/SRN IA ANDCNTRL/SRN IL. RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HR ARE EXPECTED...BUT COULD BELOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN MORE CONCENTRATED BANDS.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALLING FROM CNTRL KS INTO SRN IL. HEAVIER RATES ARE LIKELYOCCURRING WITHIN A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND FROM NEAR ICT TO OJC /ASOF 1730Z/. ASSOCIATED CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER OK...AND WILL CONTINUETO SLOWLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WAS MOVING INTO SRN KS AS WELL...WHICH SHOULDLEAD TO A DECREASE/SLIGHT NWD SHIFT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SRN PORTIONSOF CNTRL/ERN KS.WITH QUASI-CLOSED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AT LEASTWEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER /AS OBSERVED IN REGIONALVWP DATA/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN BANDED STRUCTURES ON THE NRNPERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE /I.E. ACROSS NERN KS...NRN MO INTO FAR SERNNEB AND SRN IA/. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLYHEAVY SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR REGION...PRIMARILYACROSS ERN MO AND SRN/CNTRL IL. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAINFAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPISOTHERMAL LAYER BENEATH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...AS NOTED INMORNING SOUNDINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snowing already in Keokuk, IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yep, nice big snow shield on this thing. Might be one the more classic radar sigs. we've seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 anyone know where i can get data about snowiest years for cities in IL? Lincoln, Peoria, and Springfield records: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=ilx Chicago and Rockford records: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 New to the page here. I'm from Florida so I'm used to following hurricane models. Been reading and trying to get with all the lingo here with the stuff I'm not so used to called snow haha. I'm confused as to why I have a WSW for 6-10 inch here in Dayton, but the weather channel is saying Wintery mix? Just wondering what y'all think is expected here in the Dayton area. Thanks!! I also live in the Dayton area. The weather channel tends to be off on their snow calls around here. WeatherUnderground actually tends to be a lot more accurate with their predictions. However, with this event the models had us in a solid 6-10in area for snow, but we are likely going to experience a period of freezing rain which will cut down on our totals. The mix line is going to be a tough cookie to follow in this storm so amounts in the area will have extreme variations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I suspect it won't start snowing here until 11pm or even later. Even STL was reporting nothing at the last obs. It's the defo band that will drop snow on us up here, and won't really be moving through here until the 11 PM-7 AM window. It would be nice to see that defo band strengthen some more on the models, as we're in a great position to receive it. To those downstate and over into Indiana that are relying on the WAA push to produce their snows, the obs downstate are a bit concerning. If snow doesn't start falling in earnest over the next 1-3 hours near STL, a decent chunk of qpf could be lost to saturation. But looking at obs towards Kansas, everything looks like it's falling into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Might be one the more classic radar sigs. we've seen this winter. Yes nice structure and 40-50kt moisture stream at 850mb. Too bad there wasn't more phasing with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Finally an IL snow report, -SN at UIN. Skilling siding with 2-5" I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Meh. Models have handled the dry air well. They take it into account. LSX donut hole filling in...STL reporting snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro still doesn't budge at 12z lol...maybe 20 miles NW shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Finally an IL snow report, -SN at UIN. Skilling siding with 2-5" I think. Been snowing in Quincy since 9:00AM this morning. Moderate snow there at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Meh. Models have handled the dry air well. They take it into account. LSX donut hole filling in...STL reporting snow now. agree, i'm just saying it's not going to saturate quicker than guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lincoln, Peoria, and Springfield records: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=ilx Chicago and Rockford records: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lot thanks! light snow starting fall here intensity starting to really pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 agree, i'm just saying it's not going to saturate quicker than guidance. Yep. Don't know if it's bullocks, but Mattoon reporting mod snow at noon. And Springfield has finally started snowing. Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yep. Don't know if it's bullocks, but Mattoon reporting mod snow at noon. And Springfield has finally started snowing. Good news. looks legit, as long as you use base reflectivity and aren't trying to see a screw zone between radar sites, radar reflectivity seems to match up fairly well with reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can anyone shed some light on what DVN may be talking about? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 919 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014 AT THE MOMENT THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME INTERESTING FEATURES IN THE 12Z UA THAT MAY AFFECT THE FCST THAT REQUIRE SOME LOOKING IN TO AND HOW THE NEW MODEL RUNS INCORPORATE THEM. My guess is it's showing up on the SREF, since DVN has a cluster above 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So they're two camps. EURO/HRRR vs. everyone else. Does anyone know what our favorite crazy uncle (UKMET) showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So they're two camps. EURO/HRRR vs. everyone else. Does anyone know what our favorite crazy uncle (UKMET) showed? LOL, 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NWS calling for 10-14 for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Anybody have an analysis on current OBS vs what the models showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can't even be aure any one area gets widespread foot plus totals (see many non nam models lol) but trends looking excellent for here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Been snowing in Quincy since 9:00AM this morning. Moderate snow there at noon. Yeah I'm 40 miles south east of Quincy and it's been snowing here since around 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks solid: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z ECMWF once again among the driest of all, with <0.40" for the Chicago area. Gonna stick with 4.0" for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Anybody have an analysis on current OBS vs what the models showed? everything is right in line with consensus guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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