Baum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Oy vey...how do these guys stay on air? Phil is pretty good chi town broadcast met. He'll go out on a limb and incorporate some real meteorology in his forecasts for Chicago folks. No brant miller, Taft.....et al for a TV met. ...must be swallowing the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Oy vey...how do these guys stay on air? He did state in his post that he thought those totals were high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And the 0z GFS is southeast and a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In my experience once the nam comes into the picture, so 72h to 84h out, it is a pretty good rule to take a track halfway between the NAM and EURO and you are probably gonna be pretty close to the actual result. NAM is usually NW, while the others are too far SE. In this case that would take the low between Cincinnati and Dayton. We will see how it pans out, but that is my early call. IIRC the NAM was too far south with the current storm in the beginning before going way north, only to settle back south again. Normally I look at the NAM as garbage beyond 24hrs, but it seems like at least once a winter it nails something from the beginning. Hopefully this is that storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Time to write this one off as nothing more than a nuisance snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Time to write this one off as nothing more than a nuisance snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Time to write this one off as nothing more than a nuisance snow. why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Time to write this one off as nothing more than a nuisance snow. If there was a model consensus of like 1-3", maybe, but it's right on the cusp of being something pretty big. Maybe it won't feel like it though with how snowy this year has been in a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Time to write this one off as nothing more than a nuisance snow. Chin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The models are struggling but this is very close to being something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Would like to see the EURO end up showing something like the NAM before I get too excited. 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just looking at the NAM's radar simulation reminds me a lot of the mid Feb '94 event that dumped close to a foot for this area, and a lot of surrounding areas. That one hit not long after a major arctic blast as well. Doesn't really mean anything, but sort of having a flash back out loud here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wow, Canadian is even further east and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wow, Canadian is even further east and weak. Looks like it. Has triplets on the 84 hour surface map. All snow for you guys though I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And the 0z GFS is southeast and a bit weaker. I am having a very hard time buying the track of the surface low with the track of the vort energy. The confluence is a bit north of the border ( not cutting across Maine as we typically see when systems eject out of the sw and take the track the GFS shows ) as the current system should be well out of the way. Regardless either the vort energy track is off or the surface low track is. Probably wont know for certain till this thing reaches the S.CA coast and gets sampled. Thus i would not get too comfortable yet with any model no matter if you live in KY/OH or IA/WI and everywhere in between. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This storm isn't looking as good for my region now, it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am having a very hard time buying the track of the surface low with the track of the vort energy. The confluence is a bit north of the border ( not cutting across Maine as we typically see when systems eject out of the sw and take the track the GFS shows ) as the current system should be well out of the way. Regardless either the vort energy track is off or the surface low track is. Probably wont know for certain till this thing reaches the S.CA coast and gets sampled. Thus i would not get too comfortable yet with any model no matter if you live in KY/OH or IA/WI and everywhere in between. JMHO I don't think anyone is comfortable with any one solution right now. But, it's the NAM against the world right now. Maybe a compromise, to an extent, is the best call at this point. Personally, I'd rather avoid the ones that show me mixing. You know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't think anyone is comfortable with any one solution right now. But, it's the NAM against the world right now. Maybe a compromise, to an extent, is the best call at this point. Personally, I'd rather avoid the ones that show me mixing. You know? My first call for Toronto: 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GGEM at 66 hours. 72 hours 78 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah, the GGEM is awful for Toronto. Maybe a light dusting to 2". What a disappointment this will be if it turns into a dud for Toronto given all the hype over the past five days. Still, things could change and today's event was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah, the GGEM is awful for Toronto. Maybe a light dusting to 2". What a disappointment this will be if it turns into a dud for Toronto given all the hype over the past five days. Still, things could change and today's event was pretty good. What hype? (non-rhetorical question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Local met seems to be buying into a NAM type solution...has the heaviest up near Chicago with mixing getting very close to LAF and dryslot issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0z Ukie taking the southern route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Local met seems to be buying into a NAM type solution...has the heaviest up near Chicago with mixing getting very close to LAF and dryslot issues. Best news I've heard all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Chuck 'em deep. St. Louis WRF looking sassy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What hype? (non-rhetorical question) Not here. For the past few days TWN has been all over the possible storm for next week. Model trends could change. I recall for a day or two they were hinting at a total miss and a NE US special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Chuck 'em deep. St. Louis WRF looking sassy. Pretty close to a triple bunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Pretty close to a triple bunner. lol, was just trying to add a little counterpoint to the weaker/southeast runs post 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lol, was just trying to add a little counterpoint to the weaker/southeast runs post 00z NAM. Haha, it's all good. The LSX WRF/ NAM combo may be deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Haha, it's all good. The LSX WRF/ NAM combo may be deadly. Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling deadly or Prior/Wood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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