michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This now has the CHANCE (wont jump the gun ala NAM) to become DTWs 5th storm of 6"+ this winter...and its early February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 we got time yeah, potential was somewhat there for many more in this thread to do far better, but dry air will make things difficult-er....but it's awesome to see the LAF team pick up a solid system the 4km NAM is a little better with the dry air situation on the initial push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Actually, 12z NAM is close to bringing some taint to IND. But if they actually do get a six hour thump of 0.95" like the NAM says, it may offset any brief "warming". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any chance that the dry air may be just a touch overdone? I know we'll be fighting it here anyway, but it'd be sweet if it wasn't showing up so strongly on runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wyandotte snow magnet Crazy cutoff in these parts. Actually pulling for toledo, N OH. While they are having a good winter, they do seem to get dry slotted a lot and burned by lows going NW last minute. More than us which is hard to do.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, wagons north for Detroit. Josh gets a foot now? I'm hoping for 6 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That NAM...oh my damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Actually, 12z NAM is close to bringing some taint to IND. But if they actually do get a six hour thump of 0.95" like the NAM says, it may offset any brief "warming". Almost looking like the storm on 1/5.. Taint made it to the SE side of Indy, but no further.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 anyone know the last time a system brough 6"+ to stl, chicago, indy, detroit, and cleveland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOT was favoring northern Cook to the WI border. Geos is reeling this one in. Haha. Hopefully the lake ice won't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Almost looking like the storm on 1/5.. Taint made it to the SE side of Indy, but no further.. That's what I was thinking. A great houdini act by IND in that storm. Let's go with a repeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It would be quite hilarious (for many reasons more than one) if this was our GHD retribution. Keep in mind the NAM kept going NW with it until the end (within 24-48 hours), which is what ultimately verified. Unlikely, but just a thought given its trend and solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's what I was thinking. A great houdini act by IND in that storm. Let's go with a repeat! No kidding, a repeat of 1/5 would be great. Then only to follow it up with this coming weekend. I know, shouldn't put the cart before the horse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 anyone know the last time a system brough 6"+ to stl, chicago, indy, detroit, and cleveland? Has it been that long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Haha. Hopefully the lake ice won't be an issue. I have to imagine the overall cold water temps are more of an issues than decreased open water due to lake ice. Anyways, just looking at radar but the nascent defo band over KS looks excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It would be quite hilarious (for many reasons more than one) if this was our GHD retribution. Keep in mind the NAM kept going NW with it until the end (within 24-48 hours), which is what ultimately verified. Unlikely, but just a thought given its trend and solution. That's the big question in my mind. Are the NW adjustments done? Is it steady state from here on out? Or is this like we've seen a couple times this winter where there's a small adjustment back to the SE during the final 12-18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It would be quite hilarious (for many reasons more than one) if this was our GHD retribution. Keep in mind the NAM kept going NW with it until the end (within 24-48 hours), which is what ultimately verified. Unlikely, but just a thought given its trend and solution. I know Im into snowcover more than the average weenie...its not about having white ground. I do NOT expect NAM to verify...but do you realize how much snow we have ON THE GROUND right now? There was NO snow on the ground before Apr 1886, Jan 1967, Dec 1974, an inch before Jan 1999....there was some snow before Jan 1978 and Feb 2011 but not half of what there is now. If we even get 6" (which is less than half what NAM is forecasting) it will be epic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is such as shift it looks like CLE is now south of the best band. I will laugh if the best snows end up north of here. Most local media outlets had the best snow south of here last night. And while it might be fun to jump on the NW trend of the NAM, doesn't anyone remember this past Saturday when the NAM had a swath of 6-8" from north of Chicago to Mt Pleasant, Michigan? Look how that turned out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After this storm 20" snow depth for the second time this winter is possible. Snow piles are ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 doesn't anyone remember this past Saturday when the NAM had a swath of 6-8" from north of Chicago to Mt Pleasant, Michigan? Look how that turned out... The NAM started trending SE nearly 24 hours before that event started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Tap it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I will laugh if the best snows end up north of here. Most local media outlets had the best snow south of here last night. And while it might be fun to jump on the NW trend of the NAM, doesn't anyone remember this past Saturday when the NAM had a swath of 6-8" from north of Chicago to Mt Pleasant, Michigan? Look how that turned out... Yeah, that's definitely something to keep in mind. Same thing happened with the Jan 5 storm as well. In any event, I think you're in a damn good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I will laugh if the best snows end up north of here. Most local media outlets had the best snow south of here last night. And while it might be fun to jump on the NW trend of the NAM, doesn't anyone remember this past Saturday when the NAM had a swath of 6-8" from north of Chicago to Mt Pleasant, Michigan? Look how that turned out... Not saying the NAM is right (it's an outlier right now in fact), but this system is an entirely different animal from last week's system. Several mets here gave reason as to why the further NW solutions were at least plausible with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not saying the NAM is right (it's an outlier right now in fact), but this system is an entirely different animal from last week's system. Several mets here gave reason as to why the further NW solutions were at least plausible with this one. RGEM has been getting beefier with each successive run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wyandotte snow magnet Oh my NAM. Are you kidding me? It basically has that narrow clown band that was over LAF a few days ago now extended to Detroit. This now has the CHANCE (wont jump the gun ala NAM) to become DTWs 5th storm of 6"+ this winter...and its early February Wow, wagons north for Detroit. Josh gets a foot now? I'm hoping for 6 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 if the NAM were to verify, a lot of forecasts in this forum and in the NE are going to bust badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM has been getting beefier with each successive run as well. I was JUST about to post that. RGEM had Detroit straddling the 0.40" line for several runs (sharp cutoff north of there) and at 6z jumped up to 0.60" to Detroit with the 0.40" line extending well into the northern suburbs. We shall see what 12z brings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM has been getting beefier with each successive run as well. With GHD 2011, it was also the RGEM that kept trending NW until the end (within the last 24-48 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM started trending SE nearly 24 hours before that event started.NAM 18Z Friday run was the first. Although Euro was always further south. Snow began about 2am Sat am. So the definitive trend south east was within 24 hrs....And of course that has no bearing on this outside of anything can change and usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM 18Z Friday run was the first. Although Euro was always further south. Snow began about 2am Sat am. So the definitive trend south east was within 24 hrs.... Your memory is better than mine but yeah, the trend SE was pretty obvious well before that system got going, even on the NAM. This system is already off to the races and we're seeing some positive signs. Totally different and much better position to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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