stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NMM... hrw-nmm_eus_048_precip_p48.gif ARW.... hrw-arw_eus_048_precip_p48.gif Both good runs for the SEMI crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NMM... hrw-nmm_eus_048_precip_p48.gif Was just going to post the NMM, it's also closing off the wave like the NAM and looks a tad more impressive both aloft and is in the far western camp with regards to the sfc low track. It has like dual sfc lows but the western one gets as far west as almost PAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow. That is gorgeous. That to me would support some higher totals more nw than what is currently shown. Dont u think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was just going to post the NMM, it's also closing off the wave like the NAM and looks a tad more impressive both aloft and is in the far western camp with regards to the sfc low track. It has like dual sfc lows but the western one gets as far west as almost PAH hrw-nmm_eus_030_500_vort_ht.gif Jackpot MKE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was just going to post the NMM, it's also closing off the wave like the NAM and looks a tad more impressive both aloft and is in the far western camp with regards to the sfc low track. It has like dual sfc lows but the western one gets as far west as almost PAH hrw-nmm_eus_030_500_vort_ht.gif good eyes...you can see how that translates to a little more of a NNE swath as opposed to a ENE....not much...but with the tight gradients it's note worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOT OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH LIGHTWINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE AREA AND WILLLIFT NORTH WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY MID MORNING. WINDSWILL GRADUALLY PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER AS LOWPRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN TOPDOWN...AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN REACHING THE SURFACE BY LATE AFTERNOONOR EARLY EVENING TUESDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATEAS THIS OCCURS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN F-GEN BAND DEVELOPING OVER THECHICAGO AREA RESULTING IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW WITH VSBY LESSTHAN A MILE POSSIBLE. DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT EXACTLYWHERE THE BAND WILL DEVELOP...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST FAVORABLEBETWEEN ROUGHLY 04-09Z. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...VSBY IN 1/2 TO 3/4 SMRANGE WOULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALSARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80...HOWEVER STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AFEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD TERMINALS.WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THELOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING RESULTINGIN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. SOME LIGHTER SNOW MAY LINGERTHOUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOT OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE AREA AND WILL LIFT NORTH WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN TOP DOWN...AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN REACHING THE SURFACE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TUESDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS THIS OCCURS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN F-GEN BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE CHICAGO AREA RESULTING IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW WITH VSBY LESS THAN A MILE POSSIBLE. DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND WILL DEVELOP...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04-09Z. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...VSBY IN 1/2 TO 3/4 SM RANGE WOULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80...HOWEVER STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. SOME LIGHTER SNOW MAY LINGER THOUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. If snow is reaching the ground here by late afternoon as they think then a few inches will be too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro with a solid NW band of 9-12in through SE OH with Dayton right in the center of the heavy band. The euro has been a more southerly model this time though consistent FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Both good runs for the SEMI crew. Yup. Even up near the I69 corridor might be able to get a solid 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Final call will be the same as my first call, 3.1". Hopefully it rips like nobody's business in Lafayette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Final call will be the same as my first call, 3.1". Hopefully it rips like nobody's business in Lafayette. Me too. I think you're too low for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Me too. I think you're too low for your area. That dry layer is concerning. As of right now, the floor seems to be somewhere around 2.5-3.5" and I feel most comfortable riding that floor. Certainly there exists some upside potential, perhaps four or five inches if everything breaks nicely. I think there will be a substantial gradient across Jasper County. This time I happen to be on the wrong side of that gradient. Definitely fine with that, though, as I had my excitement during the weekend surprise. Also it is nice to see you guys cash in on some of that goody. Lafayette is my second home so I'm always rooting for a good pounding down there. Just hope there is an outside chance at getting six more inches on the season. It would put us in the snowiest winter on record. Of course that's based on COOP data, so not the best; still, it feels like a massive accomplishment. I feel greedy asking for more snow during this amazing winter but........ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 2.1 looking golden as model qpf continues to drop off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If snow is reaching the ground here by late afternoon as they think then a few inches will be too low we're going to sit in a screw hole for a few hours. the NAM also backed off it's 0z run which closed off. the always wet weenie NMM barely even brings .1 to MKX's WWA counties. and the WV/radar trends do not hint at an over performer. on the plus side, SREF plumes remain steadfast with the 5" idea...but they've been tossed by LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Really liked the trends I saw last night. Model average is close to 9". Final call here is 8.7". I'm rooting for LAF to beat me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 2.1 looking golden as model qpf continues to drop off Consensus qpf for the metro on the 6z runs is about 0.25, even if you shave that down .05 or so to account for the dry air, ratios should average 15:1, possibly higher, which would yield 3" to maybe close to 4" in spots. I think your call is just slightly low but not a bad one and fits the range my office has been advertising. I do give a chance for a bump in the 12z runs which will have RAOB data in them. But barring big unforseen changes today, though we won't get significant snows, at least it appears we're not going to get shut out like late March last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z NAM and RGEM were nice and huggable. Hopefully they have a clue. 3z plumes ticked up to 9.0" for LAF. IND with a nice bump to 8.7". Latest hourly snowfall forecast for here is 8.8". Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the 6z NAM and GFS held serve for YYZ, RGEM with another uptick (over 1/2 an inch QPF now), and the 3z SREF mean is back over 7", including losing all the DAB members (now the lowest are in the 3.5" range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z NAM and RGEM were nice and huggable. Hopefully they have a clue. 3z plumes ticked up to 9.0" for LAF. IND with a nice bump to 8.7". Latest hourly snowfall forecast for here is 8.8". Good luck to all. Same to you. Not that you need the luck this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Same to you. Not that you need the luck this winter. Better to be lucky than good...because typically we don't do good in winter, or this good anyway. Toronto looking better and better, no? Hopefully this one overachieves for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z NAM and RGEM were nice and huggable. Hopefully they have a clue. 3z plumes ticked up to 9.0" for LAF. IND with a nice bump to 8.7". Latest hourly snowfall forecast for here is 8.8". Good luck to all. I think were in pretty good shape for today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Better to be lucky than good...because typically we don't do good in winter, or this good anyway. Toronto looking better and better, no? Hopefully this one overachieves for everyone. Save the luck for the Feb 9 storm. We'll need sleighloads of it then. Yeah, looks good for us. No LAF amounts, but enough to keep the snow weenies in business up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think were in pretty good shape for today! Save the luck for the Feb 9 storm. We'll need sleighloads of it then. Yeah, looks good for us. No LAF amounts, but enough to keep the snow weenies in business up there. Good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 DTX not impressed with ratios, although a lot of their talk seems to be tied to the proximity of the dryslot, which won't get close to us in Toronto. THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTHAT WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE DEFORMATION PATTERNTHAT REPRESENTS THE MAIN POINT OF CONTENTION AMONG THE MODELSOLUTIONS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE ASHALLOW LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ROOTED IN A SHALLOW DGZ CENTEREDAROUND 500 MB WITH A DEEP STABLE/ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 600 MB TOTHE SURFACE. THIS, ALONG WITH A LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECTTO ICE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE DRY SLOT, WILL AMOUNT TO MODEST SNOWRATIOS OF 10-12:1 ON LIQUID QPF CLOSER TO 0.3 OR 0.4 WITH HEAVIERAMOUNTS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AFTERSUNRISE WEDNESDAY, THE NAM SOLUTION ALSO LOOKS OVERDONE ON THETRAILING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION MAINTAINING TOO MUCH FORCING AS THESYSTEM RAPIDLY FILLS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND TRANSFERS ENERGY TOTHE ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK DIMINISHINGTREND IN THE SNOW DURING THE MORNING WITH CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONSFOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking like another 2-4" system. Grid currently up for that. LES will have to perform to get those numbers I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 2.4" call for here looking golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Certainly would not be opposed to this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 DTX not impressed with ratios, although a lot of their talk seems to be tied to the proximity of the dryslot, which won't get close to us in Toronto. THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT I suppose they're worrying about the energy/dynamics split as shown in the NAM's radar (though it's not technically a dry slot). I mean otherwise, logic would dictate that we would also get heavier snow amounts if we're flirting with the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Consensus qpf for the metro on the 6z runs is about 0.25, even if you shave that down .05 or so to account for the dry air, ratios should average 15:1, possibly higher, which would yield 3" to maybe close to 4" in spots. I think your call is just slightly low but not a bad one and fits the range my office has been advertising. I do give a chance for a bump in the 12z runs which will have RAOB data in them. But barring big unforseen changes today, though we won't get significant snows, at least it appears we're not going to get shut out like late March last year. i'm really only pimping it because it was made 72 hours out. It's clearly a bit of a low ball at this point based on consensus guidance but certainly not unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Certainly would not be opposed to this.... I think most in this thread would be cool with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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