M4XiMuS Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Haven't seen any of the St. Louis folks chime in as of late in this thread... the metro area is really right on the cusp of decent 6+" totals. We need a slight jog to the SE, but with the way the NAM and the GFS have been looking all day, I don't have my hopes up. Some maps from the local nets: Fox (Dave Murray): NBC (Mike Roberts): Additionally, first time I've seen it this season, MoDOT has already issued a "do not travel advisory" for the entire state on Tuesday. With the winter we've already had, the state is in short supply of salt and the $ simply isn't there. Tomorrow and Wednesday should be very interesting, especially for those of you in IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z RGEM shifts NW with QPF. Moves the 0.4" contour up into the GTA. Had it near hamilton/northern niagara on the 18z run. SN_000-048_0000.gif Nice. Might be the 2nd 4-6" event in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z RGEM snowfall map for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Broke some of my gutters off. Granted they were getting old, but still. I really need to get the ice cycles off of mine. They are huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nice. Might be the 2nd 4-6" event in 4 days. This is good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like a bump north on the GFS. More coming back toward the pack than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Additionally, first time I've seen it this season, MoDOT has already issued a "do not travel advisory" for the entire state. With the winter we've already had, the state is in short supply of salt and the $ simply isn't there. Tomorrow should be very interesting, especially for those of you in IN/OH. That reminds me, I heard that the Michigan DOT I believe it was, has already spent over 80% of it's budget for the entire year just on plowing and salting the roads. That could end up really, really bad come summer when there are potholes everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z GFS a little north and overall a little wetter, compared to its 12z run. No surprises there, as it was the southern outlier earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z GFS a little north and overall a little wetter, compared to its 12z run. No surprises there, as it was the southern outlier earlier today. Wetter is good, over power those dry levels that IWX is concerned about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I know the NAM isn't the be all, end all...but we're close enough...so one would expect IWX to upgrade to Warnings. Looks like the big totals in Indiana may run right through their CWA. Well, since they cancelled the first session of svr wx spotter training scheduled for Tues. night at Notre Dame I expect they eventually will do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wetter is good, over power those dry levels that IWX is concerned about MIE jackpot it looks like, on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 MIE jackpot it looks like, on the 0z GFS. I really think we are all good...TBH....an inch here or 2 there...what a great winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 MKE LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAM AND PRIOR MODELS...DECIDED TODELAY ONSET OF SNOW UNTIL TUE EVENING. SRN WI REMAINS ON THE NRNFRINGE OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NAMREMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ANDSNOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF WED. WILL NOT COMMIT TO JUST THISMODEL BUT A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LES FROM MKE SOUTH TO THEIL BORDER GIVEN A NELY FETCH FOR ABOUT 12 HRS AND COLD 850 MBTEMPS. ADDED ANOTHER INCH TO THE LES AREA WITH STORM TOTAL UP TO 4INCHES THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I really think we are all good...TBH....an inch here or 2 there...what a great winter.... Yeah, hopefully can get at least 6" across a good chunk of the state. Would be a nice spread the wealth system. And most definitely about this winter. One we'll remember fondly, for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is good to hear. 0z GFS is a nice hit as well. 4-6" across the GTA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like a nasty ice storm might be in store for Maryland according to the latest RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, hopefully can get at least 6" across a good chunk of the state. Would be a nice spread the wealth system. And most definitely about this winter. One we'll remember fondly, for a long time. I was 10 yrs old in '78, got my first weather "kit" for Xmas '77...all the time i spent configuring it..only to wake up to green lightning and thunder and then see the red fluid in my barometer run up and out...great memories...i have tried to tell my kids they may not see a winter like this for a long time....falls on deaf ears...but to be expected i guess. For me, the difference this year, is the extremes that are taking place...while the eastern CONUS is having unreal weather, cold/snowy, the west is equally. My sister outside San Fran in California told us Friday they are on 20 percent water ration..all shower water etc is being re used...it is such a dynamic ever changing weather world these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 MIE jackpot it looks like, on the 0z GFS. I don't know about jackpot, but we'll certainly be close to a jackpot. At the very least, I'm glad to see the temperatures not be an issue. The NAM had us with a bunch of s**** earlier this week, but this last run is safely cold, aside from a tiny nose at around 760mb that creeps above -1.0C. I'll do a MBY call of 7". My pessimism says that's a little ambitious, but if the banding sets up right, then we might go a little higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Early look at the 00z data shows approx 0.35" gfs, 0.40" RGEM, and 0.45" NAM for DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't know about jackpot, but we'll certainly be close to a jackpot. At the very least, I'm glad to see the temperatures not be an issue. The NAM had us with a bunch of s**** earlier this week, but this last run is safely cold, aside from a tiny nose at around 760mb that creeps above -1.0C. I'll do a MBY call of 7". My pessimism says that's a little ambitious, but if the banding sets up right, then we might go a little higher than that. Well it looked close. But yeah, p-type worries are gone for you guys. Unless something goes haywire late, which I don't see happening. I was 10 yrs old in '78, got my first weather "kit" for Xmas '77...all the time i spent configuring it..only to wake up to green lightning and thunder and then see the red fluid in my barometer run up and out...great memories...i have tried to tell my kids they may not see a winter like this for a long time....falls on deaf ears...but to be expected i guess. For me, the difference this year, is the extremes that are taking place...while the eastern CONUS is having unreal weather, cold/snowy, the west is equally. My sister outside San Fran in California told us Friday they are on 20 percent water ration..all shower water etc is being re used...it is such a dynamic ever changing weather world these days. Good stuff. I was too young to recall the winters of 1977-78 and 1978-79 (2 and 3 respectively). But my parents tell me of the tales of those seasons. And the photos of course...which are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Man it would be nice if we could get a tad stronger wave and for it to close off a little sooner Also get the 850mb low a bit further north this run namUS_500_avort_024.gif shame to waste the last two events to stat padding.. so much untapped potential.. thems the breaks though and how the south gets big winters with these continual kind of meh systems that never come together in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Early look at the 00z data shows approx 0.35" gfs, 0.40" RGEM, and 0.45" NAM for DTW. Solid 3-6", more than glad to add this to the tally. We need 4" to get to 10th place all time for the season. Amazing for this early in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Solid 3-6", more than glad to add this to the tally. We need 4" to get to 10th place all time for the season. Amazing for this early in February. We're way ahead of that, if this thing delivers 8" then we're at 4th all time and 1" away from 3rd. '78 is really starting to get close, and that really blows me away because I just never envisioned that year going down. I mean it's really hard to fathom that Toledo has received 55" by the end of January, especially when you take into consideration that Traverse City averages 50" by this time. To be getting an above average Traverse City winter down here is mind boggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Solid 3-6", more than glad to add this to the tally. We need 4" to get to 10th place all time for the season. Amazing for this early in February. Since this will clearly be a top 10 snowiest winter for Detroit...heres something for you. 5 of the top 11 snowiest winters will be since 2004, and 6 of the 14 snowiest winters will be since 2002. Records go to 1880. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think this might be one of those where we get an early clue on how we're going to do. I'll go with 8-10" with a hedge toward the idea that we do decently in the initial fgen band. If we start off slowly, then that will probably be a bit high. If we overperform early on then amounts could easily go over 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 shame to waste the last two events to stat padding.. so much untapped potential.. thems the breaks though and how the south gets big winters with these continual kind of meh systems that never come together in time. I can't remember a season with so many heavy snows missed to the southeast of our areas. I guess it makes sense though with such a cold winter. I guess on the bright side at least we're getting some snow for a refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I can't remember a season with so many heavy snows missed to the southeast of our areas. I guess it makes sense though with such a cold winter. I guess on the bright side at least we're getting some snow for a refresher. hopefully one breaks our way before its that time of the season where its congrats MSP. Misses don't really bother me anymore, would have 3 yrs ago, but what I'm really kinna getting sick of is the misses just aren't very moisture laden exciting storms anyways so its been tough to even get excited tracking big storm potential.. Guess I'll have to go back to tracking NE snow bombs in down time like the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NMM... ARW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
res Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was 10 yrs old in '78, got my first weather "kit" for Xmas '77...all the time i spent configuring it..only to wake up to green lightning and thunder and then see the red fluid in my barometer run up and out...great memories...i have tried to tell my kids they may not see a winter like this for a long time....falls on deaf ears...but to be expected i guess. For me, the difference this year, is the extremes that are taking place...while the eastern CONUS is having unreal weather, cold/snowy, the west is equally. My sister outside San Fran in California told us Friday they are on 20 percent water ration..all shower water etc is being re used...it is such a dynamic ever changing weather world these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
res Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 '78 was an amazing event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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