stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 DTW has a rock solid base of 12" that this fresh stuff will be falling on. Time to dig in the old record books. Since snow depth records began in 1885...the winters where 18"+ depth was reached... 1885-86: 25" (Apr) 1892-93: 18" (Jan) 1899-00: 26" (Mar) 1974-75: 19" (Dec) 1981-82: 18" (Feb) 1998-99: 24" (Jan) So in the last 130 years, only 6 winters has the depth hit 18" or higher. (It is assumed, based on snowfall records, that that number was reached in 1875 and 1881, but snow depth records didnt start until 1885). Detroit weather history is so odd. Biggest snow depths ever are in March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Talking to Caplan now about the lake enhancement, he thinks there is too much ice and that the NAM is overdone but I disagree. You're getting a pretty strong signal and better as we get closer. thanks for the reply...it's a bit beyond my scope of detailed knowledge of impacts. We have seen this a few times with these progressive cutter type systems in December where the lake helped to keep returns very nice on radar for an extended period of time over portions of LOT while areas west of 39 and north of the border struggled to maintain anything ... Nearly all of those situation were vaguely acknowledged by models up until it was almost RR time... clearly the lake was in a different state at that time, so it will be interesting to see how much assistance it can provide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Man it would be nice if we could get a tad stronger wave and for it to close off a little sooner Also get the 850mb low a bit further north this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Parameters aren't great for LES. Could be some minor enhancement but I'm thinking it has more to do with your more southerly location and proximity to the better dynamics. Good point, dynamics aren't great for LES, but even in marginal setups I've noticed some notable enhancement around the west end of the lake. Guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'd think marginal delta Ts are the bigger issue. Besides, the fetch passes over a lot of open water as winds back NNE. Actually delta Ts improve a bit toward the end of the event...not anything crazy but respectable. Amounts are tricky but don't think it's unreasonable to think that enhancement could tack on 1-3" in the Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good point, dynamics aren't great for LES, but even in marginal setups I've noticed some notable enhancement around the west end of the lake. Guess we will see. Oh, I think you'll get enhancement. But with delta ts of only 11 or 12 don't expect February 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How ridiculous would that be if we could pull off 16”+ depth two separate times? Actually...I didnt look at it like that. That has never happened before! The closest we came was in Feb 1908 (our old snowiest month on record until January 2014 took over)...the depth hit 15" on Feb 6th, was down to a T on Feb 14th, and back up to 15" on Feb 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh, I think you'll get enhancement. But with delta ts of only 11 or 12 don't expect February 2007 Oh how I wish. To this day, and likely for some time to come...the best snow event I have ever witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Actually...I didnt look at it like that. That has never happened before! The closest we came was in Feb 1908 (our old snowiest month on record until January 2014 took over)...the depth hit 15" on Feb 6th, was down to a T on Feb 14th, and back up to 15" on Feb 19th. What is your current depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I know the NAM isn't the be all, end all...but we're close enough...so one would expect IWX to upgrade to Warnings. Looks like the big totals in Indiana may run right through their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_045.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 There's some lake ice, but it's not solid/continuous. Sat image from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL LOCATIONS FOR TUE 18Z- WED 18Z. WATER VAPOR INSPECTION THIS EVENING COMPARED WITH 00Z NAM INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVELY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE VERY SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED LOW LEVEL SFC REFLECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH A MORE MATURE SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED TROWAL AS LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CONCERN OF INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BAND INTEGRITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO LOCAL AREA WITH INITIALLY VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW STILL APPEARS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIRD WITH ISENTROPIC SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION TROWAL FORCING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WILL BE TO SLIGHTLY SMEAR GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEEP MAX AMOUNTS IN THE 5-8 OR 5-9 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. BIG FACTOR IN STORM ACCUMS WILL BE EVOLUTION OF POTENTIAL INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BAND AND SUBCLOUD MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMS AT THE BEGINNING THIS EVENT...WILL DEFER TO HEADLINE UPGRADE AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I know the NAM isn't the be all, end all...but we're close enough...so one would expect IWX to upgrade to Warnings. Looks like the big totals in Indiana may run right through their CWA. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What is your current depth? 12". Its an average from all the previous blowing and drifting. You know the drill, many higher spots, many lower spots, but 12" is a good average. There is 2.4" of water in our 12" depth btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh, I think you'll get enhancement. But with delta ts of only 11 or 12 don't expect February 2007 The low level wind field is also weak. Inversion is low (between 925-900mb) so you don't have that classic look for a single band of LE like we saw in mid december. Delta-t's are also not ideal, as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA Well, that answers that. Dry air on the NAM is indeed very ugly for us, initially. Something to watch for...that could cut down on total accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well, that answers that. Dry air on the NAM is indeed very ugly for us, initially. Something to watch for...that could cut down on total accumulations. Yeppers, nasty dry low levels. The NAM isn't spitting out qpf until the low levels are nearly saturated so just have to hope that it's not underestimating the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12". Its an average from all the previous blowing and drifting. You know the drill, many higher spots, many lower spots, but 12" is a good average. There is 2.4" of water in our 12" depth btw Wow. That is a heavy foot of snow! We are having many issues in this area with roofs leaking from the weight of the snow and ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeppers, nasty dry low levels. The NAM isn't spitting out qpf until the low levels are nearly saturated so just have to hope that it's not underestimating the dry air. East winds of doom suck. But, certainly something that's looking more likely at the start anyways. I think I'll ride my call of 5-7", with potential upside. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow. That is a heavy foot of snow! We are having many issues in this area with roofs leaking from the weight of the snow and ice... Basically what happened...is that once we lost most of our deep snow from early January, we were down to a glacier of about 4" (but at that time it included spots bare and spots closer to 6")...then we kept adding the constant snowfalls throughout January which were always followed by wind which compacted and drifted the snow some more. So while it was a bit aggravating to see the depth suffer a would-be greater rise from all the drifting, it was making the snow more and more firm. Then of course the kicker was this past Saturday when I saw a total of 0.78" of liquid (3.2 snow + heavy rain + 0.6 snow) soak right back into the pack. The end result is about a foot of glacier left. I cannot even begin to imagine the water in some of the snowbanks (some of them go back to December before the historic January snows even had begun!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ugh, I do not like the NAM. An inch of precip with the temperature never getting above 32. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I know the NAM isn't the be all, end all...but we're close enough...so one would expect IWX to upgrade to Warnings. Looks like the big totals in Indiana may run right through their CWA. Yeah it's still a tough call for just about everywhere at this point. Although 0z NAM/4km NAM both were pretty promising... >.5" of QPF with halfway decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Too lazy to put a description but here's the 0z RGEM. Black and white charts available thru 36 hours. http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Maps that Skilling showed on air tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Maybe a tick east on the 0z RGEM at 12z Wednesday, with the slp location. B/W maps of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 OKay my 3.8" still holds. I think thats a fine call for DuPage. Central NY looks to get a good amount - some decent mositure flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still rolling with my 3.3" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow. That is a heavy foot of snow! We are having many issues in this area with roofs leaking from the weight of the snow and ice... Broke some of my gutters off. Granted they were getting old, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z RGEM shifts NW with QPF. Moves the 0.4" contour up into the GTA. Had it near hamilton/northern niagara on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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