INWeatherGuy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Careful, the thermals don't actually support snow in that heavy swatch of "snow" in SE IN to Ohio. Another example of a bad snow algorithm. The 850mb 0C line pushes north over that area for a time and the warmest layer appears to actually be at 800mb. I'd guess about 0.5" ZR and several inches of snow in those areas according to the NAM. I know some knock these maps, but they are the best I've seen for actually capturing thermals appropriately: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif Careful, the thermals don't actually support snow in that heavy swatch of "snow" in SE IN to Ohio. Another example of a bad snow algorithm. The 850mb 0C line pushes north over that area for a time and the warmest layer appears to actually be at 800mb. I'd guess about 0.5" ZR and several inches of snow in those areas according to the NAM. I know some knock these maps, but they are the best I've seen for actually capturing thermals appropriately: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif Not entirely true. The 4k highres NAM differed greatly from the little brother at 18z. Look again!(I will post more when I get home, sorry I am on my phone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18z High Res NAM just destroyed SE Indiana and a huge swath of Ohio. Somebody is buying the cold air now. Holy cow what a 180 from the run 6 hours ago!!! Nice bullseye over me! haha\ P&C forecast remains at 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18z High Res NAM just destroyed SE Indiana and a huge swath of Ohio. Somebody is buying the cold air now. Holy cow what a 180 from the run 6 hours ago!!! Geos special rearing its head. January 5th redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Warnings/watches/advisories to the west, south and east of here. Screw zone! Next..... I am certainly not expecting more than an inch or two by the end of the day tomorrow, and then, perhaps another 1/2 inch on Wed, regardless of LOT's snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I am certainly not expecting more than an inch or two by the end of the day tomorrow, and then, perhaps another 1/2 inch on Wed, regardless of LOT's snow maps. I think that would be consistent with their snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 would love to Geos pull the coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think that would be consistent with their snow map. lol, yep. 2-4" /= 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Plumes have been fairly consistent today for LAF. Mean snowfall and each run's weenie amount in ( ). 15z: 8.4" (14.6") 9z: 8.0" (13.5") 3z: 8.3" (13.6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 i've accepted the minor hit and i'm ready to enjoy my refresher. Good luck to those SE in line for a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18z High Res NAM just destroyed SE Indiana and a huge swath of Ohio. Somebody is buying the cold air now. Holy cow what a 180 from the run 6 hours ago!!! Luckily this model has been garbage the last month or so otherwise I wouldn't be too happy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hey, CWX can you pull the sref numbers for CMH and ZZV. Siting on the line and I'm curious. Thanks, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Look at the SREF Plumes here (pick your station): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Look at the SREF Plumes here (pick your station): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Bookmarked. Thanks a lot.Actually. I was there earlier. I forgot. How do you get exact numbers as ChiWX has? Any idea? Nevermind. I figured it out. Using a phone clicking the circles it hides the amount under the header. But I figured it out. Thanks again for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 SREF mean for YYZ was in the 7" range for the last little while. Now it's backed off to 5.6". Probably still too high with QPF consensus of only 0.25"-0.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Congrats to the LAF/TOL/CLE crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Congrats to the LAF/TOL/CLE crew. Seriously, this isn't meant to be snide, but even if DTW ended up with 8" you'd be disappointed. Right? So whether it's 4 or 8", what's the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Look at the SREF Plumes here (pick your station): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Many thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Seriously, this isn't meant to be snide, but even if DTW ended up with 8" you'd be disappointed. Right? So whether it's 4 or 8", what's the difference? Ah but he would be happy living in Philly ... from what I hear the snow is better there ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Seriously, this isn't meant to be snide, but even if DTW ended up with 8" you'd be disappointed. Right? So whether it's 4 or 8", what's the difference? As antsy as I am over the lack of a big dog for Detroit, 8" would be better than another 2-4" or nothing at all. It's like if you win $10,000 in the lottery. Surely it's much better than nothing or only winning $100, but it's still not the same as winning that Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 As antsy as I am over the lack of a big dog for Detroit, 8" would be better than another 2-4" or nothing at all. It's like if you win $10,000 in the lottery. Surely it's much better than nothing or only winning $100, but it's still not the same as winning that Jackpot. Ok, thanks for the clarification. I was getting this vibe from you that it's all or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think this is going to be a clunker on the far northern flanks of the precip shield. a quick half inch of mood flakiness. Good to see LAF get in the jackpot zone. If I have to miss out on the fun, would much prefer them as oppose to Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think this is going to be a clunker on the far northern flanks of the precip shield. a quick half inch of mood flakiness. Good to see LAF get in the jackpot zone. If I have to miss out on the fun, would much prefer them as oppose to Madison Probably the same for Saturday/Sunday as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 No reason abandon my 1-3" prediction after the 18z suite, but I'll make my first exact call for here of 2.4". MLI 3.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOT still pitching 3-5" for the I88 corridor. Not sure i'm on board yet but it does appear we could be trending towards a healthier defo feature. WAA snows will still get eaten alive by the dry air monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOT still pitching 3-5" for the I88 corridor. Not sure i'm on board yet but it does appear we could be trending towards a healthier defo feature. WAA snows will still get eaten alive by the dry air monster. The battle of the calls. My 3.3" vs your 2.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 several of the models (including Skilling's POS) actually show higher amounts north and south of the city, with a screw zone in between around Will, DuPage, Kane, Cook. Can't be LE as the higher amounts were way west. Where's the dry air coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 several of the models (including Skilling's POS) actually show higher amounts north and south of the city, with a screw zone in between around Will, DuPage, Kane, Cook. Can't be LE as the higher amounts were way west. Where's the dry air coming from? combination of dry low level NE flow and the mid level dry slot. It has shown up on the last 2 NAM runs and you're starting to see the early stages on the RAP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 combination of dry low level NE flow and the mid level dry slot. It has shown up on the last 2 NAM runs and you're starting to see the early stages on the RAP as well. Great, can't wait to see the famous LOT doughnut hole.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it can't be that famous since we're stacking snow at an impressive pace this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RUC with a minor lake enhanced Geos weenie signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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