Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going to be another big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going to be another big run.Yep.It rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going to be another big run. Surface low is going to make a run at Michigan by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 continued a little stronger and west through H72 goin' weenie on Alek at H75... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Over western Lake Erie at 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like I need to start thinking rain. NAM gonna score the coup. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like I need to start thinking rain. NAM gonna score the coup. very doubtful....no support even across the entire SREF spread. toss it and worry if the Euro jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 very doubtful....no support even across the entire SREF spread. toss it and worry if the Euro jumps. Tim's trolling or in his debbie downer pessimist mode...not really sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Tim's trolling or in his debbie downer pessimist mode...not really sure. we just watched the same game...grumpiness running high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 but yeah, nice weenie band for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Tim's trolling or in his debbie downer pessimist mode...not really sure. I'm just being dumb. And catering to the Chicago peeps that think they're getting GHD II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 we just watched the same game...grumpiness running high Doesn't bode well for your chances, at something big. But hey, 74 points...woo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm just being dumb. And catering to the Chicago peeps that think they're getting GHD II. Now that we broke Geos, I guess we need someone to keep the good vibes going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm just being dumb. And catering to the Chicago peeps that think they're getting GHD II. lol prolly GHD III over the weekend coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 we just watched the same game...grumpiness running high Not so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Now that we broke Geos, I guess we need someone to keep the good vibes going. He's probably hoping for a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not so bad. your first win in Champaign since '99, enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ugh, what a dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just posted by Phil Schwarz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It is great having this little downtime between events, feels like this one is still 120 hrs out instead of inside 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 gee thanks, it can get lonely down here in the south eastern flanks.... we're kinda the unpopular table in the school cafeteria. If it's good for us, it sucks for the other 80% of the forum. We need to recruit the PIT crowd and help level this puppy. You have our support in rooting for the SE trend to continue. 18z GFS looked promising, hoping to see 00z further SE and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In my experience once the nam comes into the picture, so 72h to 84h out, it is a pretty good rule to take a track halfway between the NAM and EURO and you are probably gonna be pretty close to the actual result. NAM is usually NW, while the others are too far SE. In this case that would take the low between Cincinnati and Dayton. We will see how it pans out, but that is my early call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In my experience once the nam comes into the picture, so 72h to 84h out, it is a pretty good rule to take a track halfway between the NAM and EURO and you are probably gonna be pretty close to the actual result. NAM is usually NW, while the others are too far SE. In this case that would take the low between Cincinnati and Dayton. We will see how it pans out, but that is my early call. Ugh, that would royally suck. But, not that I don't think mix isn't on the table for LAF...despite what the other models currently show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just posted by Phil Schwarz... notghd.JPG Oy vey...how do these guys stay on air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 i can dig it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ugh, what a dryslot. Indeed. But it's the NAM at the end of its run, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ugh, that would royally suck. But, not that I don't think mix isn't on the table for LAF...despite what the other models currently show. For your sake I hope I am wrong. Ideally we would have a track through Wheeling with a huge cold sector precip shield that makes everyone in the forum happy! WIsh we could make that happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Anyone have a comment about the role that the convection in the South may play? I know that it can sometimes cause a stronger/nw solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 APX things suppressed is the way to go THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR ANY BIG NORTHERN SHIFTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A DECENT NORTHERN STREAM BLOCK FOR A TIME INTO MIDWEEK SUGGESTING A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO. Needless to say 18z GEFS were lame Despite the usual talk of a possible nw trend, I'm not optimistic. I don't like the look of the flow, like APX said. Models are showing a nice piece of energy rounding the base of the trough and getting slung ene across the Ohio Valley. It doesn't really scream "last minute phase & nw cut". The NAM is farthest nw and even it keeps the heaviest band to the southeast. Other models take the surface low so far southeast(deep south up to eastern Kentucky) that even southeast Iowa would typically not sniff a flake.\ Obviously, I hope I'm wrong and I'm just not seeing the potential of a more favorable downstream flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 For your sake I hope I am wrong. Ideally we would have a track through Wheeling with a huge cold sector precip shield that makes everyone in the forum happy! WIsh we could make that happen Eh, your thoughts sounds reasonable. This has the look of going northwest. No denying it. Just have to make peace with it...and get ready for my sleet, freezing rain, and/or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.