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February 4-5th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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gee thanks, it can get lonely down here in the south eastern flanks....  we're kinda the unpopular table in the school cafeteria.  :lol:  

If it's good for us, it sucks for the other 80% of the forum.   We need to recruit the PIT crowd and help level this puppy.

You have our support in rooting for the SE trend to continue. 18z GFS looked promising, hoping to see 00z further SE and colder.

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In my experience once the nam comes into the picture, so 72h to 84h out, it is a pretty good rule to take a track halfway between the NAM and EURO and you are probably gonna be pretty close to the actual result. NAM is usually NW, while the others are too far SE. In this case that would take the low between Cincinnati and Dayton. We will see how it pans out, but that is my early call.

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In my experience once the nam comes into the picture, so 72h to 84h out, it is a pretty good rule to take a track halfway between the NAM and EURO and you are probably gonna be pretty close to the actual result. NAM is usually NW, while the others are too far SE. In this case that would take the low between Cincinnati and Dayton. We will see how it pans out, but that is my early call.

 

Ugh, that would royally suck. But, not that I don't think mix isn't on the table for LAF...despite what the other models currently show. 

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Ugh, that would royally suck. But, not that I don't think mix isn't on the table for LAF...despite what the other models currently show. 

 

For your sake I hope I am wrong. Ideally we would have a track through Wheeling with a huge cold sector precip shield that makes everyone in the forum happy! WIsh we could make that happen

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APX things suppressed is the way to go

 

THE FLOW REGIME

ACROSS THE CONUS DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR ANY BIG NORTHERN SHIFTS

WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A DECENT NORTHERN STREAM BLOCK FOR A TIME

INTO MIDWEEK SUGGESTING A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION IS PROBABLY THE

WAY TO GO. 

 

Needless to say 18z GEFS were lame

 

Despite the usual talk of a possible nw trend, I'm not optimistic.  I don't like the look of the flow, like APX said.  Models are showing a nice piece of energy rounding the base of the trough and getting slung ene across the Ohio Valley.  It doesn't really scream "last minute phase & nw cut".  The NAM is farthest nw and even it keeps the heaviest band to the southeast.  Other models take the surface low so far southeast(deep south up to eastern Kentucky) that even southeast Iowa would typically not sniff a flake.\

 

Obviously, I hope I'm wrong and I'm just not seeing the potential of a more favorable downstream flow.

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For your sake I hope I am wrong. Ideally we would have a track through Wheeling with a huge cold sector precip shield that makes everyone in the forum happy! WIsh we could make that happen

 

Eh, your thoughts sounds reasonable. This has the look of going northwest. No denying it. Just have to make peace with it...and get ready for my sleet, freezing rain, and/or rain. :lol:

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