SchaumburgStormer Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thinking DAB up here in RFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If you want to see something funny, take a look at the CMH one. Talk about a forecast headache. 30% chance of snow, 30% chance of freezing rain, 30% chance of rain. actually the SREF 3hr POP and type has slightly different numbers for CMH. I just sort of rounded off. Yep that would drive me nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CIPS analogs using the 12z NAM at 36 and 48 hours both like February 16, 1993 as the #1 analog. 19930217_072_total.png But for entertainment purposes, here's the top 15 at 48 hours using the 12z NAM. Some big dogs for almost everyone on that list. Feb 16, 1993 Jan 14, 1979 Feb 25, 2011 Feb 3, 1982 Feb 2, 2011 Jan 31, 1982 Feb 22, 2010 Jan 5, 2004 Feb 14, 2007 Dec 23, 2004 Feb 21, 1989 Dec 28, 1983 Jan 10, 1985 Feb 14, 2000 Feb 26, 1993 Looks like there's a goody in there for everyone (12/23/04 here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z NAM already with more ridging early on across the eastern central plains in KS/MO/AR/OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CIPS analogs using the 12z NAM at 36 and 48 hours both like February 16, 1993 as the #1 analog. 19930217_072_total.png But for entertainment purposes, here's the top 15 at 48 hours using the 12z NAM. Some big dogs for almost everyone on that list. Feb 16, 1993 - ? Jan 14, 1979 - approx 6" Feb 25, 2011 - approx 4" Feb 3, 1982 - 6" Feb 2, 2011 - 10.3" Jan 31, 1982 - 11.8" Feb 22, 2010 - approx 7" Jan 5, 2004 - 2.8" Feb 14, 2007 -8.5" Dec 23, 2004 -8.9" Feb 21, 1989 - approx 4" Dec 28, 1983 - ? Jan 10, 1985 - ? Feb 14, 2000 - ? Feb 26, 1993 - ? At work so I don't have access data...but i added the dtw numbers that I knew for the SE MI posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like there's a goody in there for everyone (12/23/04 here).Actually the 1982 storm is best. See my above post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 any change with the 18z NAM is going to be minor. Certainly not going hard NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Reading now, where 1"-3" for city and south, heavier totals south. How about a complete whiff? Of the two systems that have been in the news the last few days (this one, and the possible snow over this coming weekend) one of them was going to be less than what everyone was hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 weenie band still there for CMI-LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 any change with the 18z NAM is going to be minor. Certainly not going hard NW. correct, end up just like 12z, maybe a hair slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Reading now, where 1"-3" for city and south, heavier totals south. How about a complete whiff? Of the two systems that have been in the news the last few days (this one, and the possible snow over this coming weekend) one of them was going to be less than what everyone was hoping for. Looks like both might be a letdown locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winter Storm Warning for all of central Indiana. SREF plumes show average of 6" for Indy. Winter Storm Warning says 5-8 along I-70 corridor. 7-10 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Nice lake enhancement signal at 36/39hr as well as the continued DeKalb/Kane/DuPage screw zone for totals continues on this run probably taking into account the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol @ that screwhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winter Storm Warning for all of central Indiana. SREF plumes show average of 6" for Indy. Winter Storm Warning says 5-8 along I-70 corridor. 7-10 north. Looks like your office is hitting the banding potential pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HAVE BUMPED TOTALS UP A BIT ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAYS AND THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...AS MESOSCALE FACTORS ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK HEALTHIER AND CONCERNED THAT BANDING MAY BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THIS SYSTEM. CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW FROM THE METRO AREA NORTHWARD...VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS NEARLY COLOCATED WITH STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPV. ADDITIONALLY...THESE FEATURES ARE NEAR OR WITHIN THE -10 TO -20 LAYER FAVORED FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATIOS. THE NEGATIVE EPV INDICATES THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND...PERHAPS...AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SOMEWHERE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lets see what the next one brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 IWX ALL EYES FOCUSED ON IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY WRAPPING EWD THROUGH NRN BAHA THIS AFTN. IMPRESSIVE DEEP GOMEX MSTR PLUME NOTED IN PWAT ANALYSIS THIS MORNING W/SECONDARY SUB TROPICAL MSTR ENTRAINMENT NOTED IN VAPOR ACRS NRN MEXICO. THUS EC/GEM/UK CONSENSUS BLEND PREFERRED W/HIGH CONTINUITY TRACK LIFTING SFC WAVE FM TX COASTAL PLAIN NEWD INTO SWRN PA BFR COASTAL HANDOFF TAKES PLACE. DETAIL REFINEMENT HWVR RELEGATED TWD HIGHRES TRENDS ESP WRT LIKELY MESOBANDING EARLY IN THE EVENT. GROSS SYNOPTIC SIGNALS INCLUDING 150M+ H5 HFC AND COMPOSITE H7-H85 TRACK POINT TO HEAVIEST STRIPE OF SNOW FALLING SOUTH OF A MONTICELLO DEFIANCE LINE W/STG MESOBANDING SIGNALS NOTED ALG A KCMI-KFDY LINE TUES EVENING AS DEEP AGEO CIRC DVLPS UNDERNEATH STG 180KT JET STREAK POSITIONED OVR SE CANADA. TIMING OF LL MSTR SURGE KEY TO FINAL AMTS BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT RULE OUT HIGHER QPFS NOTED IN MANY INDIVIDUAL HIGHRES SOLUTIONS GIVEN 12Z RAOBS/GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY DOWN SOUTH. BEST ALIGNMENT OF FTRS FITTING WITHIN WARNING SNOWFALL CRITERIA WOULD LOOK TO BE ALG/SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR...HWVR GIVEN EXTREME MODEL SPREAD STILL PRESENT ALOFT WILL HOLD W/PRIOR WATCH ISSUANCE FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE AS COASTAL HANDOFF TIMING PROBLEMATIC TO BOOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INWeatherGuy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18z High Res NAM just destroyed SE Indiana and a huge swath of Ohio.Somebody is buying the cold air now. Holy cow what a 180 from the run 6 hours ago!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18z High Res NAM just destroyed SE Indiana and a huge swath of Ohio. Somebody is buying the cold air now. Holy cow what a 180 from the run 6 hours ago!!! Lmao. I'm right in the bullseye.The NAM is always hung over until about the 36hrs out when it decides to sober up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like your office is hitting the banding potential pretty hard. After the band that sat over some locations for several hours Saturday night, I'm sure IWX/IND don't want to miss another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thinking 4-6" imby...more just south...by like a county...again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone having trouble getting the 18z RGEM? Should've been in by now I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18z High Res NAM just destroyed SE Indiana and a huge swath of Ohio. Somebody is buying the cold air now. Holy cow what a 180 from the run 6 hours ago!!! Careful, the thermals don't actually support snow in that heavy swatch of "snow" in SE IN to Ohio. Another example of a bad snow algorithm. The 850mb 0C line pushes north over that area for a time and the warmest layer appears to actually be at 800mb. I'd guess about 0.5" ZR and several inches of snow in those areas according to the NAM. I know some knock these maps, but they are the best I've seen for actually capturing thermals appropriately: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone having trouble getting the 18z RGEM? Should've been in by now I think. Yes. Also GFS is wetter overall both down by you and up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Careful, the thermals don't actually support snow in that heavy swatch of "snow" in SE IN to Ohio. Another example of a bad snow algorithm. The 850mb 0C line pushes north over that area for a time and the warmest layer appears to actually be at 800mb. I'd guess about 0.5" ZR and several inches of snow in those areas according to the NAM. I know some knock these maps, but they are the best I've seen for actually capturing thermals appropriately: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif 18z gfs actually matches very well with that swath... Even takes it down into cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 SREF Plumes for KDTW for whatever it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Warnings/watches/advisories to the west, south and east of here. Screw zone! Next..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Fairly deep DGZ here on the GFS once we finally saturate thats >300mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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