Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Last system has a similar skinny WAA style band that overperformed for folks around PIA but they have heart break city N & S cutoffs. Yes, they do. We missed the 6-8" band here on Saturday night by about 30 miles to the south/east. But that was a different animal, sorta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro ripping pretty good over about the eastern half of Kansas through 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The trof on WV looks more sharper/defined IMO than what the models are showing and as others have noted, won't get fully sampled. Also some lightning south of the CA border under the cold pocket of the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 because it's only 4 hours and the only model giving hope but this is a respectable difference by 21z. of course NAM RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro lays down about 0.50" precip from northeast Missouri through central IL into Indiana. Looks like about 0.50-0.60" for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro lays down about 0.50" precip from northeast Missouri through central IL into Indiana. Looks like about 0.50-0.60" for LAF. Seems to be pretty consistent with that idea. I think I'll narrow my LAF call to 5-7", with some potential upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z NAM/RGEM/Euro all agree on about .30" here (DPA) Liking my 3.3" call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Seems to be pretty consistent with that idea. I think I'll narrow my LAF call to 5-7", with some potential upside. Sounds pretty reasonable to me. Maybe something like a 5-7" with isolated higher amounts type of forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Here is the SREF that was mentioned earlier. Lots of juicy members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CIPS analogs using the 12z NAM at 36 and 48 hours both like February 16, 1993 as the #1 analog. But for entertainment purposes, here's the top 15 at 48 hours using the 12z NAM. Some big dogs for almost everyone on that list. Feb 16, 1993 Jan 14, 1979 Feb 25, 2011 Feb 3, 1982 Feb 2, 2011 Jan 31, 1982 Feb 22, 2010 Jan 5, 2004 Feb 14, 2007 Dec 23, 2004 Feb 21, 1989 Dec 28, 1983 Jan 10, 1985 Feb 14, 2000 Feb 26, 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Models have generally been fading for us. A couple of them have gone below 0.20". The Euro is about the wettest at this point with 0.23". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CIPS analogs using the 12z NAM at 36 and 48 hours both like February 16, 1993 as the #1 analog. 19930217_072_total.png But for entertainment purposes, here's the top 15 at 48 hours using the 12z NAM. Some big dogs for almost everyone on that list. Feb 16, 1993 Jan 14, 1979 Feb 25, 2011 Jan 3, 1982 Feb 2, 2011 Jan 31, 1982 Feb 22, 2010 Jan 5, 2004 Feb 14, 2007 Dec 23, 2004 Feb 21, 1989 Dec 28, 1983 Jan 10, 1985 Feb 14, 2000 Feb 26, 1993 GHDEEEEEE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GHDEEEEEE! Haha. That and #2 should get the NE IL posters stirred up. And for us...VEEEEDAAAYYY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Models have generally been fading for us. A couple of them have gone below 0.20". The Euro is about the wettest at this point with 0.23". i can think of worst models to have be your wettest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Haha. That and #2 should get the NE IL posters stirred up. And for us...VEEEEDAAAYYY! i'm not sure if that being #2 or the #1 being DAB is more telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Haha. That and #2 should get the NE IL posters stirred up. And for us...VEEEEDAAAYYY! I saw 2/14/07.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Models have generally been fading for us. A couple of them have gone below 0.20". The euro is about the wettest at this point with 0.23". what does euro have for Lincoln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 i'm not sure if that being #2 or the #1 being DAB is more telling. Potential, I guess. I was sorta impressed with the amount of heavy hitters on that list, for a lot of locations. Not that it may mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CIPS analogs using the 12z NAM at 36 and 48 hours both like February 16, 1993 as the #1 analog. 19930217_072_total.png But for entertainment purposes, here's the top 15 at 48 hours using the 12z NAM. Some big dogs for almost everyone on that list. Feb 16, 1993 Jan 14, 1979 Feb 25, 2011 Feb 3, 1982 Feb 2, 2011 Jan 31, 1982 Feb 22, 2010 Jan 5, 2004 Feb 14, 2007 Dec 23, 2004 Feb 21, 1989 Dec 28, 1983 Jan 10, 1985 Feb 14, 2000 Feb 26, 1993 Flipped through the NARR maps for 2/16/1993 and can see why it's the top analog. Stunning similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 what does euro have for Lincoln My estimate from adding up each map is about 0.34". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 what does euro have for Lincoln Pretty close to 0.35" EDIT: Ninja'd by the Hawk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Flipped through the NARR maps for 2/16/1993 and can see why it's the top analog. Stunning similarities. We'll see how well it does. Here's a few totals from that event. IND: 6.7" FWA: 6.1" WL COOP: 6.0" Frankfort COOP: 7.0" Kokomo COOP: 6.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We'll see how well it does. hopefully terribly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We'll see how well it does. Here's a few totals from that event. IND: 6.7" FWA: 6.1" WL COOP: 6.0" Frankfort COOP: 7.0" Kokomo COOP: 6.0" The thing about it though is that there should be snow farther north this time. But I'm talking overall sfc/upper level features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 hopefully terribly lol, yeah. Just FWIW with that one for Chicago... ORD: 1.3" MDW COOP: 3.5" The thing about it though is that there should be snow farther north this time. But I'm talking overall sfc/upper level features. I understand. Just spitting out the totals of that specific storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I saw 2/14/07.. as far as I can figure, 2/14/07 is a good analog for this storm total weenie mode here-- Toledo's SREF plume shows the slight possibility of 15" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z RAP still looks solid, little slower/more ridging in the plains valid 6z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol, yeah. Just FWIW with that one for Chicago... ORD: 1.3" MDW COOP: 3.5" I understand. Just spitting out the totals of that specific storm. hmmm, those actually look pretty realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If LES doesn't materialize, then closer to 1" vs. 3" might become the case up here. Dry NE flow not good for synoptic snows in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 as far as I can figure, 2/14/07 is a good analog for this storm total weenie mode here-- Toledo's SREF plume shows the slight possibility of 15" of snow. 2014_02_03_15z_SREF_plume_toledo1.png If you want to see something funny, take a look at the CMH one. Talk about a forecast headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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