Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 at least we have a weenie model to ride for the next few hours That and the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That and the RGEM RR rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Agreed, the GFS is completely lost at this point. Sad that we are literally 24 hours away from some locations getting snow in the plains and we are widening the gap even further. Hopefully the GFS is not being given much weight in forecasts today. It would be nice for the Euro to give some credence to the higher res models that have come out so far. Definitely unfortunate and not a confidence builder for forecasters today with such large spread amongst the operational models 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RR rule? Nailed GHD at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hopefully the GFS is not being given much weight in forecasts today. It would be nice for the Euro to give some credence to the higher res models that have come out so far. Definitely unfortunate and not a confidence builder for forecasters today with such large spread amongst the operational models 24 hours out. I think based upon the watches posted overnight, a lot of the northern offices were discounting the far south solutions. Of course the GFS had to go further south just to spice things up a bit this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think based upon the watches posted overnight, a lot of the northern offices were discounting the far south solutions. Of course the GFS had to go further south just to spice things up a bit this morning. Agreed. At least it's very apparent that the GFS is erroneously jumping the surface low center to the warm sector convection instead of tucked in closer to the midlevel trough hundreds of miles away over the OV as it should. This will make it easier to discount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Agreed. At least it's very apparent that the GFS is erroneously jumping the surface low center to the warm sector convection instead of tucked in closer to the midlevel trough hundreds of miles away over the OV as it should. This will make it easier to discount. Even the RGEM to an extent tries to do what the GFS is doing, the difference being it starts the low much further north and in a more correct location with regards to the upper level trough. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html You can see it as you tick through the hours, once the convection weakens the RGEM refocuses back at the main low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 When a storm system taps pacific moisture it almost always overperforms. Check out the huge moist plume from the south/central Pacific on water vapor. That would suggest that the models with the higher QPF totals might be more representative than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Chad Evans updated...going with widespread 6-8" (locally higher) but says he may need to add a band of 8-10". Mentions 1-1.5" per hour rates. Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even the RGEM to an extent tries to do what the GFS is doing, the difference being it starts the low much further north and in a more correct location with regards to the upper level trough. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html You can see it as you tick through the hours, once the convection weakens the RGEM refocuses back at the main low. Even the NAM does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even the RGEM to an extent tries to do what the GFS is doing, the difference being it starts the low much further north and in a more correct location with regards to the upper level trough. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html You can see it as you tick through the hours, once the convection weakens the RGEM refocuses back at the main low. Yup, that's clear to see there, so it's conceivable that even the RGEM, while much better than the GFS, might be too far southeast at least initially with the slp placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 When a storm system taps pacific moisture it almost always overperforms. Check out the huge moist plume from the south/central Pacific on water vapor. That would suggest that the models with the higher QPF totals might be more representative than the others. Yes, interesting analysis. I believe models are downplaying the qpf on the northern fringe and killing off the northern stream too quickly. Amazing how were less than 48 hours out and yet a precise track is still not accounted for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even the NAM does it. Yup, that's clear to see there, so it's conceivable that even the RGEM, while much better than the GFS, might be too far southeast at least initially with the slp placement. Certainly could lead to some last minute changes for those of us on the northern fringe of this one. Here, I consider myself playing with house money as a 3-5" snowfall looks to be a lock, if we can improve on that though, that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like Skilling is going with 3-7" for Chicago based on 15:1 LSRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like Skilling is going with 3-7" for Chicago based on 15:1 LSRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Certainly could lead to some last minute changes for those of us on the northern fringe of this one. Here, I consider myself playing with house money as a 3-5" snowfall looks to be a lock, if we can improve on that though, that would be great. I'm feeling similar here, 3-4" with potential for more if the good analysis about issues with the models placing the surface low too far southeast comes to pass, as well as the excellent point made by extremewx about the PAC moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 WAA push gets eaten alive by dry air but the defo feature is respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Pure noise for a lot of areas. Total QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NMM loop Weenie model. But looks sexy for the LAF and OKK areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LAF is locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 WAA push gets eaten alive by dry air but the defo feature is respectable. Speaking of dry air...Yea, no doubt it really kills things. The NAM takes the 850mb low from UIN to near LAF. That would normally be good enough for a decent snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LAF is locked and loaded When you're hot you're hot. Still thinking 1-3" for this area. Hopefully more towards the 3" side of it, but we'll see. At least so far we've stopped the bleeding of qpf with the 12z runs. Hopefully Euro doesn't knock any more off. Overall another yawner up this way, but a nice little refresher is always nice I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Extremely tempted to raise my range to 8-12". We'd get near the lower end as long as the GFS isn't right (and factoring in 12:1 to 14:1 ratios) and the higher end if not a bit more if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LAF is locked and loaded For something around 6", maybe. Thing is, with these hyped up runs...it's a skinny band out in front that does damage. I'm kinda dubious to that panning out. But I also think the overall QPF field for the system may need a little broadening and some upward QPF adjustment. Certainly more than the 12z GFS is portraying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Speaking of dry air...Yea, no doubt it really kills things. The NAM takes the 850mb low from UIN to near LAF. That would normally be good enough for a decent snow here. yep, 850 low position is pretty decent but it's weak and doesn't improve until east of the area. The RAP continues to run a bit stronger than the NAM at 850 and 700 so I guess there is some weenie hope for a last minute improvement but the window is fast closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For something around 6", maybe. Thing is, with these hyped up runs...it's a skinny band out in front that does damage. I'm kinda dubious to that panning out. But I also think the overall QPF field for the system may need a little broadening and some upward QPF adjustment. Certainly more than the 12z GFS is portraying. Last system has a similar skinny WAA style band that overperformed for folks around PIA but they have heart break city N & S cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Speaking of dry air...Yea, no doubt it really kills things. The NAM takes the 850mb low from UIN to near LAF. That would normally be good enough for a decent snow here. enhancement will clean that up for the metro IMO...we've seen it a few times this season... but yeah, definitely looks like a fly in the ointment as far as the models portrayal at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Skilling holding steady at 3-7". Kind of saw his map in the background. Looked like 4" near the lake, 3" west of there and then 5-6" from I-80 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Taken with the tiniest grain of salt...Accuwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.