Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z RGEM has a broad brushed LE of 0.40-0.60" for most of Indiana...with a 0.60-0.80" band cutting through the central parts of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lol the 12z GFS and NAM are still worlds apart. NAM takes the sfc low over Lexington where the GFS at the same timeframe is weaker at east of Nashville down into AL. Interesting that the NAM has the sfc low NW of the deeper convection and the sfc low on the GFS is over/SE of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Still plenty of time for this to budge in either direction. For a lot of us on the sub forum... A 50-100 mile north jog would completely change everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM/RREM get the SLP into SE Ohio by hr 48. GFS has it over southern Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GFS looking like it wants to be an outlier in terms of track. 12-14" on the NAM...4-6" on the GFS. Compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z RGEM has a broad brushed LE of 0.40-0.60" for most of Indiana...with a 0.60-0.80" band cutting through the central parts of the state. Looks like it takes the low over Cincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12-14" on the NAM...4-6" on the GFS. Compromise? Pretty aggravating to have that kind of spread at this point. Exact amounts aside, I'm buying the enhanced band on the NAM but it's more of a question of where it sets up...whether it's over us or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 3.8" with a WWA coming soon I'll stick with the above. Still feeling good about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The NAM is a lock to be too far NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Pretty aggravating to have that kind of spread at this point. Exact amounts aside, I'm buying the enhanced band on the NAM but it's more of a question of where it sets up...whether it's over us or not. Yeah. Sort of amazing how the models still can't get into complete agreement within 24-48 hours. 12z Ukie looks to be in the same spot as it has been for awhile, with the slp at 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The NAM is a lock to be too far NW Even the suppressed GFS gives you 3". Better revise the DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even the suppressed GFS gives you 3". Better revise the DAB. I made a final call of 2.1" a couple days ago, it's going to bust high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even the suppressed GFS gives you 3". Better revise the DAB. Chad has 8-12" for Chicago...and Alek has a dusting. Epic battle ensuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Minor lake enhanced signal keeps showing up in IL though delta Ts are not that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It would be nice if this pulls a GHD 2011 or December 2004 at the last second, but it won't happen (would be nice, but it won't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 you can tell just how weak the northern stream piece is on WV, no balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS suffering from convective feedback issues. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The NAM is a lock to be too far NW RGEM is even further north with the def band, especially up in SE MI, Front end bands struggle to get up here, but the def band finally does as the low gets shunted east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RAP definitely the weenie model for those on the NW fringe to ride right now...by 21z this evening (so only 6 hrs out) it's showing a much nicer trough than even the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah. Sort of amazing how the models still can't get into complete agreement within 24-48 hours. 12z Ukie looks to be in the same spot as it has been for awhile, with the slp at 12z Wed. I'm not entirely sure we had full sampling with the 12z runs. If you go back and look at where the s/w was at 12z, it was still hanging just off the coast and now it's diving into Baja. There is a RAOB site there in far southern California so maybe enough data made it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS suffering from convective feedback issues. Toss. Agreed, the GFS slp placement makes no sense at hour 36 and 42 given the 500 mb plot and even less so with the placement of the pv anomaly vs the slp placement. I think the 12z NAM has a better chance of verifying at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Agreed, the GFS slp placement makes no sense at hour 36 and 42 given the 500 mb plot and even less so with the placement of the pv anomaly vs the slp placement. I think the 12z NAM has a better chance of verifying at this point. Agreed, the GFS is completely lost at this point. Sad that we are literally 24 hours away from some locations getting snow in the plains and we are widening the gap even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Agreed, the GFS slp placement makes no sense at hour 36 and 42 given the 500 mb plot and even less so with the placement of the pv anomaly vs the slp placement. I think the 12z NAM has a better chance of verifying at this point. RC do you have any thoughts on my post above and whether there was full sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Steady eddie with the 12z GGEM, other than maybe some minor details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RAP definitely the weenie model for those on the NW fringe to ride right now...by 21z this evening (so only 6 hrs out) it's showing a much nicer trough than even the NAM Stronger from top to bottom than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RC do you have any thoughts on my post above and whether there was full sampling? I would say it definitely did not get full sampling, the northern stream wave likely had partial sampling, but the heart of the southern wave (jet streak) was still off the BAJA coast at 12Z this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Loving the multiple red tags posting their thoughts. We don't get that enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RC do you have any thoughts on my post above and whether there was full sampling?Based on current w/v, as extremewx stated it's highly likely there wasn't full sampling yet for 12z, when I looked yesterday I thought by 12z but most likely for the 00z runs which looks to be the case. It appears this evening there will be sampling by the far southern CA site and the site on the Mexican mainland coast of the Gulf of California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Stronger from top to bottom than the NAM at least we have a weenie model to ride for the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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