mississaugasnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone have total snowfall numbers from the GGEM? Saw your in Winter Storm Watch. How much snow do you have on the ground after the last system? Also looks weird to have Buffalo issuing way ahead of all the other offices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Moves the primary into OH/PA vs WV/VA on the GFS. not really a change at all from 12z, except wetter. 6hr intervals takes low from southeastern KY, along the OH/WV border into sw PA. Virtually no change. Trust me, I'm on the razors edge so I've been looking at this stuff very closely lol. Still not a prolific snow producer, heaviest swath is from about Richmond IN, to about Mansfield OH...and that's about 6-8"....widespread 3-5" elsewhere. this is all wxbell info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Saw your in Winter Storm Watch. How much snow do you have on the ground after the last system? Also looks weird to have Buffalo issuing way ahead of all the other offices We still have huge piles from the blizzard, but on the ground about 5-6 inches. We had nearly an inch of rain here yesterday with temperatures in the upper 30s. We only received .5 inches of snow after the changeover last night. Yeah Buffalo is usually the last place to issue WSW. They must have some decent confidence in this system to produce 6+ inches of snow across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We still have huge piles from the blizzard, but on the ground about 5-6 inches. We had nearly an inch of rain here yesterday with temperatures in the upper 30s. We only received .5 inches of snow after the changeover last night. Yeah Buffalo is usually the last place to issue WSW. They must have some decent confidence in this system to produce 6+ inches of snow across the area. Isn't your WSW criteria 8"+/<12 hrs less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Isn't your WSW criteria 8"+/<12 hrs less? THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAYEVENING.* LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING GREATER THAN 6 INCHES.* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THERE REMAINS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK COULD ALTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That's definitely a bit hasty issuing WSW that much in advance lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Isn't your WSW criteria 8"+/<12 hrs less? Here is the criteria for WSW: ...A WINTER STORM WATCH WOULD BE ISSUED AT LEAST 12 HOURS IN ADVANCE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM. WATCHES ARE ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW, 7 INCHES OR MORE IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD (9 INCHES OR MORE IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD), FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE ICING D UE TO FREEZING RAIN, OR FOR POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEFINED AS THE DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, AND WIND. I'll add this as well: WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW, SEVERE ICING OF ONE HALF INCH OR MORE, OR THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW, SLEET, OR FREEZING RAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/pns6winter1314.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Latest model runs gave Louisville .30 to .60 inches of ice. I don't like that situation especially with the fresh snow pack on the ground. It may look gorgeous, but that's nothing to play with. Would rather it shift south and give us a snow event or shift back north and give us plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAYEVENING.* LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING GREATER THAN 6 INCHES.* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THERE REMAINS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK COULD ALTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Interesting. This map indicates 7" as the threshold. I new it was something elevated because I've read AFDs out of BUF where they're thinking 4-8/5-8 but saying that's insufficient for a watch/warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 not really a change at all from 12z, except wetter. 6hr intervals takes low from southeastern KY, along the OH/WV border into sw PA. Virtually no change. Trust me, I'm on the razors edge so I've been looking at this stuff very closely lol. Still not a prolific snow producer, heaviest swath is from about Richmond IN, to about Mansfield OH...and that's about 6-8"....widespread 3-5" elsewhere. this is all wxbell info I have the 3hr.. 12z at 75hr had it east of Wheeling ( about where i70 and i79 cross paths in W.PA ) vs 00z over top of Wheeling. Not a huge shift though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For LAF best first guess is 6-10" more south than north....but reserve the right to update that. It may go as high 10-16". I'm thinking that 6-10 is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For LAF best first guess is 6-10" more south than north....but reserve the right to update that. It may go as high 10-16". I'm thinking that 6-10 is a lock. I actually think they are in the ground zero ( where highest totals will be ) area. It just has had that feel to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll be truly surprised if the EURO adjusts its track more than an 1/8 of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll be truly surprised if the EURO adjusts its track more than an 1/8 of an inch. Now watch it cut to Chicago or go OTS simply because you posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro a lot more juice this run here... It has 10-12in around dayton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Now watch it cut to Chicago or go OTS simply because you posted that. Nope. Same track as 12z. Lost some QPF as well in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Nope. Same track as 12z. Lost some QPF as well in the cold sector. My post was tongue-in-cheek (sort of, I almost WANT a few NW/amped solutions to stir the pot and make things more interesting), but either way, it's good to know there wasn't a major change with the EURO. I still feel confident in my 2-4" call for DTW from earlier verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro dropped another tenth of qpf for the I-80 corridor in this area. Since other models with both 18z and 00z runs also lowered qpf I'm lowering the call from 3-4" to 1-3" for this area. Starting to look like a sub-advisory level event for areas north of I-80 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For LAF best first guess is 6-10" more south than north....but reserve the right to update that. It may go as high 10-16". I'm thinking that 6-10 is a lock. I actually think they are in the ground zero ( where highest totals will be ) area. It just has had that feel to it. Jinx. Just kidding. I'm sticking with my call of 4-8" for here right now. Hopefully can narrow it soon. EDIT: looks like the Euro went a good deal south...so 4 is more likely than 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Jinx. Just kidding. I'm sticking with my call of 4-8" for here right now. Hopefully can narrow it soon. EDIT: looks like the Euro went a good deal south...so 4 is more likely than 8. Euro gives us .5 or .6 qpf...there's pretty good agreement on those kinds of numbers other than the NAM. Really liking the chances for 6+ here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Much better tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just a couple observations mulling the SPC mesoanalysis page. 1. A closed-off 588dm height contour has popped up in the GOM and SW Florida. The 00z NAM at least didn't have that (not sure about the other models). 2. Heights ahead of the wave in the SW appear to be a bit higher than forecasted. That said, I don't see anything drastic ATM to suggest the model solutions are off. These are just observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Here's a little blast from the past. Used to post this on Wright Weather and Eastern. It's the MM5 run by the University of Wisconsin. Not sure how good it is but this solution is not far off from what other models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 s/w looks a little sharper so far on the 6z NAM at 24 hours. *Could* mean that this run tries to nudge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 s/w looks a little sharper so far on the 6z NAM at 24 hours. *Could* mean that this run tries to nudge north. Yea, it came NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 s/w looks a little sharper so far on the 6z NAM at 24 hours. *Could* mean that this run tries to nudge north. Could tell early on across the central plains with slightly more ridging too. 4-5" around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro dropped another tenth of qpf for the I-80 corridor in this area. Since other models with both 18z and 00z runs also lowered qpf I'm lowering the call from 3-4" to 1-3" for this area. Starting to look like a sub-advisory level event for areas north of I-80 now. agree, just as suspected the cold sector QPF is vanishing. This is a CMI-LAF-CLE storm...as has been exceptionally well advertised for days now. 2.1" call looking decent but will probably still bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winter storm watches out from both IWX and CLE for 6-10" of snow. Might as well roll with those numbers for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At 48 hrs.... 6z RGEM = 1008mb over CVG 6z NAM = 1012mb over SDF 6z GFS = 1012mb between Nashville and Knoxville in TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 And just to throw the 3z SREF mean into the mix, it has a 1008mb over CVG as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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