Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'd be happy with this... We've reached the pinnacle in model land. So... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So close up here! Feel like this darn pop up snowstorm in the midatlantic is to blame! Either way looks great for laf to cle It doesn't help for sure. None of the models had it a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Beauty, 850 mb low with the 700mb low just to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It doesn't help for sure. None of the models had it a couple days ago. I'm not sure if its the mid atl storm departing that's pushing the ridge a bit south, or more the stuff up in canada shunting it to the east, forcing it to form a new low further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm not sure if its the mid atl storm departing that's pushing the ridge a bit south, or more the stuff up in canada shunting it to the east, forcing it to form a new low further east. It's both. The fact that the shortwave itself is pretty much a piece of crap (a 70-90kt Jet digging on the backside of a trough typically does not make for a big storm) hurts us too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It doesn't help for sure. None of the models had it a couple days ago. I'm not sure if its the mid atl storm departing that's pushing the ridge a bit south, or more the stuff up in canada shunting it to the east, forcing it to form a new low further east. For now let's just be glad it isn't missing us to the north... I think it'll still be a solid 4-6" storm south of 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's both. The fact that the shortwave itself is pretty much a piece of crap (a 70-90kt Jet digging on the backside of a trough typically does not make for a big storm) hurts us too its a POS but with the gulf open, you don't need a strong wave to produce good snows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 its a POS but with the gulf open, you don't need a strong wave to produce good snows.. True, but then you must consider the other crap going against it too (somewhat flat SE ridge, confluence over northern Canada retrograding westward, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Meh. Have to rely on clippers to get snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like about 0.3" at YYZ. Maybe with ratios we can fluff that up. Chris Scott seems to be toning down his expectations. Thinks worst of storm will likely be south of the 401 and in the Niagara region. My 2-4" call might be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Confidence is growing that LAF could take a major hit, right now I would give it a 6 in 10 chance. Potential Vorticity at 250mb.. The area SE of that PV max should be primed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Chris Scott seems to be toning down his expectations. Thinks worst of storm will likely be south of the 401 and in the Niagara region. My 2-4" call might be a good one. Probably a good idea. I thought rather than retrograding as much as the models were depicting, at least a piece of that northern s/w would break off, dig, and eventually phase with the storm in the stj. Doesn't look like that's going to play out and so we're left with the northern scraps. Could be worse. Could be whiffed altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Confidence is growing that LAF could take a major hit, right now I would give it a 6 in 10 chance. Potential Vorticity at 250mb.. The area SE of that PV max should be primed The problem is the sfc low position doesn't make sense given that map. It should be further NW closer to the PV hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RGEM at 48. Extrapolate your hearts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The problem is the sfc low position doesn't make sense given that map. It should be further NW closer to the PV hook Yeah, with that, it looks like the system should move right up through Southeast Michigan, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, with that, it looks like the system should move right up through Southeast Michigan, doesn't it? It's balanced out by the fact the area of confluence near James Bay is moving SE as the main storm is trying to move north. That tends to flatten the main storm and make it move more to the E/ENE rather than NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The problem is the sfc low position doesn't make sense given that map. It should be further NW closer to the PV hook The positioning of that feature foretold a bit of a northwest shift on 1/5, so we'll see what happens with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's balanced out by the fact the area of confluence near James Bay is moving SE as the main storm is trying to move north. That tends to flatten the main storm and make it move more to the E/ENE rather than NE. Saw something similar with the December Mutant Storm (Toronto's Ice Storm). It probably won't be to that extreme this time, but that seems to be the name of the game for these Southern Stream systems this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's balanced out by the fact the area of confluence near James Bay is moving SE as the main storm is trying to move north. That tends to flatten the main storm and make it move more to the E/ENE rather than NE. Oh, ok. I was going to say, basically the norther jet and southern jet are not going to "work together" then. Looks like you recently posted something similar to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's balanced out by the fact the area of confluence near James Bay is moving SE as the main storm is trying to move north. That tends to flatten the main storm and make it move more to the E/ENE rather than NE. Shouldn't the confluence be moving east? Not even sure where its coming from.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Saw something similar with the December Mutant Storm (Toronto's Ice Storm). It probably won't be to that extreme this time, but that seems to be the name of the game for these Southern Stream systems this season. It seems like we need the jet streams to come together just right to get healthy storms in the Midwest, whereas along the east coast it just takes the southern jet to bring a lot of moisture up the coast and pull cold air down with them. That seems to be the case with my old stomping grounds in PA. Lots of cold air available! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Shouldn't the confluence be moving east? Not even sure where its coming from.... I think an area of confluence can move in any which direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z GFS looks marginally better/stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z GFS looks marginally better/stronger. If it is stronger, will it create a tighter wound up storm, or have a larger, more expansive area of snow? Models earlier this weekend had a nice deformation band, but seem to have lost it some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS gets as far north as WV with the sfc low then due east off the VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z GFS looks marginally better/stronger. Not bad. A little more organized with the snow band. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS Congrats Allentown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The problem is the sfc low position doesn't make sense given that map. It should be further NW closer to the PV hook No, lets look at the H5 map, the surface low should be just SE of the strongest vort max. Than you have to take a look at were the mid level lows set up say at 700-850 mb, that is really the key as moisture from the warm sector will be evected into those low pressure areas. The 700-925 lows should be slightly north of the surface lows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well looks like Toledo is golden for this week. The Greatest Winter of All Time continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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