Harry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Again, more good news for us. I looked on his blog, for the lolz, and he has the surface low cutting west of Dayton. Uhh huh. Oh, and congrats Chicago. http://blogs.wlfi.com/2014/02/02/93169/ That dude is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Honestly I don't think the dryslot concern is totally unfounded, especially if there's a trend to the northwest. Not something to panic about yet but something to keep in mind. Sure, it's all been a concern all along. Nothing new there. But a slp track west of Dayton? Tell me you're not buying that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sure, it's all been a concern all along. Nothing new there. But a slp track west of Dayton? Tell me you're not buying that... Yeah that might be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 storm won't wrap up enough to dry slot you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah that might be tough. lol, you're such a closet Chad fan. You should join his blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 storm won't wrap up enough to dry slot you guys We may taste it with the ULL. Only thing that has me a bit worried, for decent totals here, is getting squeezed by the dis-jointment between the slp (too far SE) and ULL (overtop or to the NW). Hopefully that corrects itself, but there are models showing that scenario. But, I'm good with 3-5, 4-6" if that's what it turns into to for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Why the difference between the Nam and the GFS as to strength and other things? One has to look up stairs into the attic to see the difference. On both models there is the strong upper level low over NE Canada. On the Nam it pulls the stronger Jet streak out of the area, on the GFS the Jet streak hangs back. Also on the Nam as the first jet streak pulls away another starts to amplify to the south, putting the area in the front left quad in a favorable area of heavier snows. BTW what happens up here we effect the winds from H5 on down. Nam... GFS.. As soon as I post this I suppose tonight's run of the NAM will cave. But I think it has a chance to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Nam @H5 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Everyone quietly waiting for the Nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At 33hr, ridge looks a bit flatter. Best guess is that it may be a bit weaker/SE than the 18z run, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ^ was going to post the same thing basically. Either the same or further SE than 18z. Area of confluence over Hudson Bay is further SE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Everyone quietly waiting for the Nam... Yup, but looking at WV imagery to my amateur eye at 715pm seems to be like the 18z Nam was sightly better than the GFS 18z, and the minor diff's could prove huge....I was using this view of WV... and I think the Nam was slightly better at the H5 vorticity over North Dakota and Lake MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z NAM looks like it's going to be juiced again regardless of placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 SE and weaker it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z NAM looks like it's going to be juiced again regardless of placement. Weenie band for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Weenie band for us. Indeed. About a foot through 54 hours and still snowing on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Weenie band for us. Sticking with under 50" for LAF on the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The run after run of high qpf on the NAM is a great sign. Maybe it backs down but it makes you wonder if the globals may trend wetter eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Indeed. About a foot through 54 hours and still snowing on that run. Almost looks like a lesser V Day type outcome. Strictly looking at the results, not saying it's that kind of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sticking with under 50" for LAF on the season? I'm an idiot, for thinking that. What more is there to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Your guys boy Chad better put up a new blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm an idiot, for thinking that. What more is there to say? Only under you might have a shot with is for snowiest winter ever at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Only under you might have a shot with is for snowiest winter ever at LAF. I kinda like the over potential with that one. Though my natural pessimism tends to work out for the better (opposite results), annoying as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So close up here! Feel like this darn pop up snowstorm in the midatlantic is to blame! Either way looks great for laf to cle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'd be happy with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Somehow that run produces 3-4" or so up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I like this one better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like about 0.3" at YYZ. Maybe with ratios we can fluff that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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