JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Have to wait for the actual textual data, but looks like a huge hit here prior to a change to sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:10 AM, snowstormcanuck said: 21z SREF mean for YYZ up to 6.1". The NAM OP in itself is so close to a major hit for us. A small shift NW in the QPF shield would make a world of a difference. As it stands looks like around 0.3" of QPF on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If by some chance that dry layer is overdone then you'd probably be looking at 6+ into Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:15 AM, Hoosier said: ninja'd Yeah hopefully it can edge back south. It doesn't miss by much. Gonna be close, but nice to see the NAM still spitting out 12" totals in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:19 AM, Hoosier said: USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_045.gif Holy ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nice uptick in the 00z NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF plumes show a mean of between 6-7 inches for DTW with a range in ensemble members between almost 13” and under 3", so a huge spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:12 AM, Snowstorms said: Nam is spreading the wealth...nice hit Maybe a slight uptick in QPF? Looked a little more developed with the H5 wave, but overall, noise level stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INWeatherGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Insane regular NAM.....Curious to see the high res here in a few minutes. Just, WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:17 AM, blizzardof96 said: The NAM OP in itself is so close to a solid hit for us. A small shift NW in the QPF shield would make a world of a difference. As it stands looks like around 0.2" of QPF on this run. Around 0.3-0.40" actually. It would be safe to use 15:1 snow ratios given the temperatures. A 50 mile shift NW would do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:21 AM, IthielZ said: SREF plumes show a mean of between 6-7 inches for DTW with a range in ensemble members between almost 13” and under 3", so a huge spread. Which would translate to a 18-19" depth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lakeside gets .40" liquid and most of northeast IL gets .30"+ Best run in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:18 AM, Chicago WX said: It doesn't miss by much. Gonna be close, but nice to see the NAM still spitting out 12" totals in places. Locked and loaded...it is all gravy now....7 or 12 inches....me personally, i can never throw around inches...my model always says 6....so i am good with anything >gt .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just to round out the day. Plumes mean snowfall (and high weenie total) for LAF. 21z: 8.7" (15.1") 15z: 8.4" (14.6") 9z: 8.0" (13.5") 3z: 8.3" (13.6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM clown map is a very solid hit for DTW.... I hope it is light and fluffy stuff, rather than the 2.5:1 mess we just had. One thing is for certain blowing snow will be a big factor from this one for there is nothing to hold the new snow down in place. Plus it has a nearly smooth surface to ride on, from the last system. Good times. Lets set another monthly snow record for Feb and eclipse the all time seasonal too !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:15 AM, snowlover2 said: NAM crushes Dayton with 12". I'll go get the milk and bread tomorrow I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:23 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Lakeside gets .40" liquid and most of northeast IL gets .30"+ Best run in a few days. Always thought some moisture enhancement from L.M. might get involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:23 AM, michsnowfreak said: Which would translate to a 18-19" depth! Almost 20" ........ If it verifies you know who to blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:23 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Lakeside gets .40" liquid and most of northeast IL gets .30"+ Best run in a few days. Been waiting for the models to pick up on this added QPF (understandably, they shouldn't show it tooooo much more than 48 hours out anyways)....but to possibly debunk my expectations...do/would the models have a grasp on water temps and it's possible impact on any enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:22 AM, INWeatherGuy said: Insane regular NAM..... Curious to see the high res here in a few minutes. Just, WOW. For the Ontario posters, seems to pick up some sort of Lake Enhanced snow off of Lake Ontario with the NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:22 AM, Snowstorms said: Around 0.3-0.40" actually. It would be safe to use 15:1 snow ratios given the temperatures. A 50 mile shift NW would do wonders. Normally I'd chide you for assuming 15:1 ratios based on temps but cobb techniques have been showing some decent ratios with this event the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:28 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Normally I'd chide you for assuming 15:1 ratios based on temps but cobb techniques have been showing some decent ratios with this event the last several runs. LOOL! There seems to be good support for decent snow ratios. Hopefully the 0z RGEM/GFS are just as loving as the Nam, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:28 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Normally I'd chide you for assuming 15:1 ratios based on temps but cobb techniques have been showing some decent ratios with this event the last several runs. I've noticed ratios near 16:1 on recent NAM/GFS COBB runs. 0.5" QPF contour now getting up near hamilton on the 0z NAM. YYZ looks to jump from ~0.25 to a tick above 0.3", so we are headed in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:28 AM, YHM Supercell said: For the Ontario posters, seems to pick up some sort of Lake Enhanced snow off of Lake Ontario with the NE winds. Parameters aren't great for LES. Could be some minor enhancement but I'm thinking it has more to do with your more southerly location and proximity to the better dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:27 AM, DAFF said: Almost 20" ........ If it verifies you know who to blame. DTW has a rock solid base of 12" that this fresh stuff will be falling on. Time to dig in the old record books. Since snow depth records began in 1885...the winters where 18"+ depth was reached... 1885-86: 25" (Apr) 1892-93: 18" (Jan) 1899-00: 26" (Mar) 1974-75: 19" (Dec) 1981-82: 18" (Feb) 1998-99: 24" (Jan) So in the last 130 years, only 6 winters has the depth hit 18" or higher. (It is assumed, based on snowfall records, that that number was reached in 1875 and 1881, but snow depth records didnt start until 1885). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:27 AM, Gilbertfly said: Been waiting for the models to pick up on this added QPF (understandably, they shouldn't show it tooooo much more than 48 hours out anyways)....but to possibly debunk my expectations...do/would the models have a grasp on water temps and it's possible impact on any enhancement? Talking to Caplan now about the lake enhancement, he thinks there is too much ice and that the NAM is overdone but I disagree. You're getting a pretty strong signal and better as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:23 AM, michsnowfreak said: Which would translate to a 18-19" depth! How ridiculous would that be if we could pull off 16”+ depth two separate times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:32 AM, blizzardof96 said: I've noticed ratios near 16:1 on recent NAM/GFS COBB runs. 0.5" QPF contour now getting up near hamilton on the 0z NAM. YYZ looks to jump from ~0.25 to a tick above 0.3", so we are headed in the right direction. 0.4" line gets as close as Mississauga. Looks like the Toronto proper is solidly ~0.35". Tight gradient though. Small shifts one away or another are going to have big consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 2:34 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Talking to Caplan now about the lake enhancement, he thinks there is too much ice and that the NAM is overdone but I disagree. You're getting a pretty strong signal and better as we get closer. I'd think marginal delta Ts are the bigger issue. Besides, the fetch passes over a lot of open water as winds back NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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