cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 5:29 AM, Chicago WX said: Haha, it's all good. The LSX WRF/ NAM combo may be deadly. Have any Euro predictions? I'm thinking it remains pretty close to the 12z version. A dramatic shift northwest like the NAM, or weaker southeast would make things even more interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GGEM 84 hours. Definitely not very exciting looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 5:31 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling deadly or Prior/Wood? Non-weather, but Prior/Wood...depressing. On 2/2/2014 at 5:32 AM, cyclone77 said: Have any Euro predictions? I'm thinking it remains pretty close to the 12z version. A dramatic shift northwest like the NAM, or weaker southeast would make things even more interesting though. Nothing radical? I don't know. Seems the 12z run was in step with its ensembles. But yeah, it'll be a decent clue to as to where this thing may be heading. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 4:40 AM, Chicago WX said: I don't think anyone is comfortable with any one solution right now. But, it's the NAM against the world right now. Maybe a compromise, to an extent, is the best call at this point. Personally, I'd rather avoid the ones that show me mixing. You know? I hear you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 5:37 AM, Harry said: I hear you. Stakes are high here. Don't want to miss one. Suppose that's true for a lot of people. I think I may have lost Hoosier...as he may have bought fully into the local met's call of all mix. Sad times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc294 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 5:20 AM, cyclone77 said: Chuck 'em deep. St. Louis WRF looking sassy. Do we have the temps for these same 00z maps? I'm nervous with how wet this looks for me in SE Ohio...this is first time I've look at any maps really for the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This last system at this range had a southeast run that everyone immediately bought into, I had rain with my snow today so lets all get off the ledge for a moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GGEM suppression could be related to its usual problems with over-estimated high pressure in northwestern Canada. Would favor GFS in this dispute, looks more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro Looking like it's going to crush the OH/IN area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 EURO looks ok, for central IL. Most of IN and OH hit well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:15 AM, Geos said: EURO looks ok, for central IL. Most of IN and OH hit well. How is it compared to the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:17 AM, snowstormcanuck said: How is it compared to the 12z? Looks a bit better than the 0z. Still needs some improvements and has weak QPF on the northern fringe but resembles the GFS in some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Are some of you guys trying to hotlink maps or something? Having trouble seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 5:40 AM, Chicago WX said: Stakes are high here. Don't want to miss one. Suppose that's true for a lot of people. I think I may have lost Hoosier...as he may have bought fully into the local met's call of all mix. Sad times. Almost certain it comes further nw then the GFS or euro ( Euro tracks it to Wheeling and a bit stronger vs 12z ) is showing but doubt it goes far enough nw to give you guys that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:20 AM, Hoosier said: Are some of you guys trying to hotlink maps or something? Having trouble seeing it. I'm glad I'm not the only one. Just a bunch of broken images for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:20 AM, Hoosier said: Are some of you guys trying to hotlink maps or something? Having trouble seeing it. Yea same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 5:40 AM, Chicago WX said: Stakes are high here. Don't want to miss one. Suppose that's true for a lot of people. I think I may have lost Hoosier...as he may have bought fully into the local met's call of all mix. Sad times. At least I'm not on the all rain train like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe it's just me, but the wxbell images are not coming through... EDIT: others beat me to the punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:19 AM, Snowstorms said: Looks a bit better than the 0z. Still needs some improvements and has weak QPF on the northern fringe but resembles the GFS in some way. Still trying that phallic like retrograde of the northern s/w. Great way to flatten our storm. I'll give it another run, maybe two, before conceding defeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:21 AM, Harry said: Almost certain it comes further nw then the GFS or euro ( Euro tracks it to Wheeling and a bit stronger vs 12z ) is showing but doubt it goes far enough nw to give you guys that problem. So sounds like the 0z Euro has gone northwest...thus, it's caution flag time for LAF. Never easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:21 AM, Chicago WX said: I'm glad I'm not the only one. Just a bunch of broken images for me. I think Mr. Maue might have something to do with that and being able to share WxBell images.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Some maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:22 AM, Hoosier said: At least I'm not on the all rain train like you. Yeah, but I'm not riding dumb dumb's call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:23 AM, Thundersnow12 said: I think Mr. Maue might have something to do with that and being able to share WxBell images.. Ah, yes. That makes total sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:21 AM, Harry said: Almost certain it comes further nw then the GFS or euro ( Euro tracks it to Wheeling and a bit stronger vs 12z ) is showing but doubt it goes far enough nw to give you guys that problem. Models are mishandling the S/W and the northern stream and thus providing many implications on the track and strength of the storm. If you analyze the 500mb vort charts, you could pick out some errors that I think the models will correct in the coming day or two. Been a horrible season for the models. For example, the GGEM completely retrogrades the northern stream and kills it off. Will be interesting to see what happens when it gets fully sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:23 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Still trying that phallic like retrograde of the northern s/w. Great way to flatten our storm. I'll give it another run, maybe two, before conceding defeat. The latest Euro shows about 3-4" in the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 6:29 AM, Snowstorms said: The latest Euro shows about 3-4" in the GTA. Yeah, I saw Geos' maps. That's a small up tick from the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 To me the Euro looks pretty similar to the 12z version for here. Not a huge storm, but a long duration light to moderate event. Since no other model besides the NAM is going with an amped solution I think it's time to start leaning toward the more conservative models. Not too late for an amped up version to win out, but we're getting to the point that it's starting to look a little unlikely. Even the more conservative models would fluff up a nice 3-5" type of event for northern IL/eastern Iowa with 15:1 LSRs. So if that works out to be true it will be another in a long line of light to moderate events, but a pretty impressive refresher at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Really starting to sense that this storm could bring a lot of freezing rain to my area especially after the significant snowfall we're expecting tomorrow evening and night. It'll shock me if this storm tracks far south enough to give my area snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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