NEchestercountydude Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is just like the little snow storm we got two Saturday's ago. All the models had 1-3 and the euro had a coating, ended up 2.2 I think 1.5 is the over-under here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Very light snow is now falling here - 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 ECM is dry, flurries to 1/2" north sections ECM's had a bad winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We are just outside of the 12Z Nam Fire Weather range which did great with the last storm as far as qpf is concerned, but it looks like it brings between .25 and .5 by just following the map (again, that's a guess, for all I know it could be a dry slot). The 12 NAM is between .1 and .25, so it will be interesting to see if it starts ticking up. 2-4" is certainly not out of the question, making this yet another plowable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Very light snow falling at the moment. 28/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 ECM's had a bad winter so far. Sure it has, I mean it totally botched Monday's storm. Oh, wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is it true that it handles southern stream storms/ patterns better that northern stream ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is it true that it handles southern stream storms/ patterns better that northern stream ones. I have heard this, but have not personally evaluated it or seen anyone's clear analysis confirming or refuting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Very light snow falling here now, 27F. Pixe dust falling here in Media, Delaware County PA 28 in the backyard with two 35 foot sections of my tree down waiting for cleanup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I have heard this, but have not personally evaluated it or seen anyone's clear analysis confirming or refuting it. Would be interesting if someone dug into that. A lot of people seem to believe that it's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Very light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Radar looks like light snow but nothing here in SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREF's a tick upward on snow for Sunday night get PHL to 1.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nam falls inline with Srefs. 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Scattered flurries here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18Z GFS dried up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18Z GFS dried up a bit. As did the RGEM, we'll see if the dry trend continues or holds tonight. Looks like a typical .5 - 1.5" clipper snow event. That being said, the last clipper over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 brine has been applied to the roads around these parts today FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is it true that it handles southern stream storms/ patterns better that northern stream ones. It seems like the gap between it and other models is largest during el nino regimes, when the subtrop jet would be stronger. I have heard people call the gfs a northern stream model. The changes to modeling are coming faster and more furious, so even we looked back at 2009-10, neither model is the same. I wouldnt say the ECMWF has dusted the other models this season, but when you look at the QPF evaluations within 84hrs in our area, its still leading in most categories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It seems like the gap between it and other models is largest during el nino regimes, when the subtrop jet would be stronger. I have heard people call the gfs a northern stream model. The changes to modeling are coming faster and more furious, so even we looked back at 2009-10, neither model is the same. I wouldnt say the ECMWF has dusted the other models this season, but when you look at the QPF evaluations within 84hrs in our area, its still leading in most categories. Thanks Rainshadow. Every model has it's weaknesses, gfs too progressive, nam too wet and so on. I wonder at what point will we see that "jump" in model computing power and they begin to get highly more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 SREFs .10 + area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS got drier again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Another case of the models (GFS, EC, NAM) all apparently under-forecasting QPF... that really is the theme of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam seemed to do just fine. Either way, aren't we talking about a .1 inch or less difference in qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam seemed to do just fine. Either way, aren't we talking about a .1 inch difference in qpf? GFS, NAM and EC all gathered around 0.1", but it's clear that actual was closer to 0.2". Not a lot, but more than they had, same as the events last week and probably others. (1/3 comes to mind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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