Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 And btw new sref is coming northwest with the system in its longer range....here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The main thing showing up on the models now that is discouraging, as Ray mentions, is the flattening out of the ridge out west. That in itself argues against the chance for a "big" storm. Now there still is the chance for a storm however now it all revolves around the timing of the pieces of energy floating around. Without that ridge out west allowing the trough too deepen a large scale storm would be highly unlikely at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 One day / One model run at a time. Look back to last few hits and how they slowly panned out. Its never a lock but trends have been our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS, GGEM and ECMWF are all fairly similar, with a relatively strong southern wave which stays south and a weaker northern feature with brings a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles123 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think the HECS for this weekend is off the table but I think this will be a SECS/MECS at best or a miss and nothing at all. I don't think this winter will produce a MONSTER snowstorm. I think this winter will only deliver 6-12 type storms at most. Maybe next winter we could get a monster storm because I don't see it happening this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think the HECS for this weekend is off the table but I think this will be a SECS/MECS at best or a miss and nothing at all. I don't think this winter will produce a MONSTER snowstorm. I think this winter will only deliver 6-12 type storms at most. Maybe next winter we could get a monster storm because I don't see it happening this year. The positive NAO has not helped monsters to develop. 6-12 from this one is still in the realm if the northern piece can blow up enough. Certainly not saying that will happen, but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The positive NAO has not helped monsters to develop. 6-12 from this one is still in the realm if the northern piece can blow up enough. Certainly not saying that will happen, but not impossible.Another miller b which typically screw us in the Philly region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Just my thinking from looking at everything I can absorb...even going back to what I remember as a similar setup about 2 weeks ago for 1(what happened there and what wasn't seen till it was happening) and other trends since and models;Ok...Even if the S tream energy misses fishy If it's just a hair slower and N...the N stream energy pops off the coast itself and entrains or captures some of the leftover moisture hanging out...then we'd get a juicy clipper basically and isn't that,even if not synoptically the same,what happened a few weeks ago where around Philly, CNJ got around a foot...hey up here we only pulled about 5,but I'm not so caring even if that is it for around the area...it all adds up...right now just from M to W we got our best snowpack at around a foot and this stuff was Finally not all fluff,Anything we can add on it is gravy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 wow, all of a sudden I could hear a pin drop here... how bout sprucing things up with a Valentines Day Storm thread ? (or day before Valentines Day Storm) EDIT : just noticed there's one for Feb 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Credit to Meteorology Memes on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=621185921268196&set=a.416068281779962.92331.415859518467505&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 ↑ LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Credit to Meteorology Memes on Facebook: Classic Jurassic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Anyone see the nam this am? Has some support from the gefs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'll take P002 72 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Anyone see the nam this am? Has some support from the gefs as well. Good thing it has support from the 12Z NAM... oh, wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Good thing it has support from the 12Z NAM... oh, wait...yep, nam has no idea which of the 3 or 4 waves it wants to key in on....really blows up the caboose wave this run and leaves us virtually dry sunday into monday now. I got nam'd this am apparently :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z GFS not bad, shows 1-4" for our area Sunday Night, kind of in line with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z GFS not bad, shows 1-4" for our area Sunday Night, kind of in line with the NAM. Sounds promising. By the way, much better avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Sounds promising. By the way, much better avatar. Thanks, I'm a huge Breaking Bad & Game of Thrones fan, but Bbad is over, and GoT is back (and yes I've read the books, halfway through Feast of Crows ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Thanks, I'm a huge Breaking Bad & Game of Thrones fan, but Bbad is over, and GoT is back (and yes I've read the books, halfway through Feast of Crows ) You seem very enthusiastic to add pertinent input to the sub forums but with your other avatar I found it hard to take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 You seem very enthusiastic to add pertinent input to the sub forums but with your other avatar I found it hard to take it seriously. You never watched Breaking Bad?! By the way, most of the 18z GFS members look a little wetter than OP...Might be a little 2-4", 3-5" for extreme Northern burbs type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wxsim has 2" to 4" of snow on Sunday late day....and oh yeah - an ice storm on Thursday. Still looks like the movie Frozen here in NW Chesco - 62.5 hours now without power Current Temp 23.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Gfs holding its ground and actually a little wetter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ray, are you awake? The NYC forum mentioned the possibility of 3" for KTTN....pretty exciting after thinking this thing was "on death row". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 ECM not feeling the sunday night clipper like the GFS, coating to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GGEM and NAM and the most recent SREF run I've seen aren't too impressed either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 RGEM at 48 had a similar h5 setup to the GFS and the Ukie had 1 - 2" area wide. Not looking for a last minute low end KU here but 3-5" would put many over 50" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREF's bumped up real nice .25 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 RGEM at 48 had a similar h5 setup to the GFS and the Ukie had 1 - 2" area wide. Not looking for a last minute low end KU here but 3-5" would put many over 50" for the season. I think you are forgetting that your Monmouth snow capitol is the exception, not the rule. Most places are 30-40", so 3-5 would not get them to 50+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think you are forgetting that your Monmouth snow capitol is the exception, not the rule. Most places are 30-40", so 3-5 would not get them to 50+.True, should have said a few. There are a few n/w of Philly over 47" but elsewhere ~40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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