MJO812 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 According to other forums, 12z GGEM was out to sea. Mabye someone's cache was not refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GGEM Thats yesterdays... initial time is 140203 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thats yesterdays... initial time is 140203 Give him an A for effort but otherwise fail.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro is blowing up the first wave on saturday leaving little wavelength for the sun-mon system to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 EC OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 EC OTS.Ray, watch the saturday wave...we've seen this already numerous times this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ray, watch the saturday wave...we've seen this already numerous times this winter I'd expect it more from the GFS than the EC. This can still happen, don't get me wrong. The CPC progs which seem to keep the NAO positive don't make me enthusiastic, though. And just to clarify, there is a bit of light snow from the systems over the weekend on the EC, some Saturday from the first wave, some Sunday from the second. No blockbuster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think over the past 18 hours we lost the idea of a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We have lost the big one but a SECS/MECS is still very much in the running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Guys - by no stretch of the imagination is a "big one" off the table. The models will struggle but in about 48 hours it will be back. This is the way big storms happen - very rare a numeric model is able to stick with it. Most of the major independent METS (LC, JB and SD) keep reiterating each of these models are falling into their normal biases - JB likes the idea for heaviest snows from SC PA and NE bound. It certainly makes sense the way this year has gone. I for one will be more surprised if there is not a major storm come the end of the weekend. But let's see how it plays out - but let's try not to get too hung up on the model to model swings - although I know that's not possible. Either way some very interesting times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What do you guys consider the snowfall range for each EC category? Mine would be SECS 6-12, MECS 12-18, HECS 18+. Is there anything official regarding this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What do you guys consider the snowfall range for each EC category? Mine would be SECS 6-12, MECS 12-18, HECS 18+. Is there anything official regarding this? Those ranges seem reasonable, though I haven't seen anything official. A SECS this weekend is definitely still possible. Outside chance of a MECS. A HECS? Eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I just want Philly to get another 6 inch snowfall and break the record of 3 from those awesome charts you posted earlier in the season. Maybe this next storm can do it, but it's eons away in the model world . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I just want Philly to get another 6 inch snowfall and break the record of 3 from those awesome charts you posted earlier in the season. Maybe this next storm can do it, but it's eons away in the model world . 6" in Philly is definitely still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I never really twelve inches of snow as possible as people made it seem to be in Philadelphia. Not surprised models have lowered totals. Six inches seems much more reasonable. I wouldn't think we would have the correct setup or the high amount of moisture needed to see 12 or more inches of snow. It's still a few days out though from the storm though, so I hope to get surprised. I don't want to see more ice in the forecast though. :/ I don't think any of us do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 0z GFS has a decent SECS this weekend i just hope i have power to continue tracking it and it's showing some love for Valentines day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Temps are too warm, the ULLs are too far inland, however it somehow shows a better pattern right after and pulls a blizzard Feb 13-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 ECM has lost the storm signal for sunday, but both it and the GGEM are real close to bringing the saturday storm up the coast. GGEM even gets precipitation into NJ sunday am from first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 ECM has lost the storm signal for sunday, but both it and the GGEM are real close to bringing the saturday storm up the coast. GGEM even gets precipitation into NJ sunday am from first wave No one should give up on a storm by a model run, days apart. Some purists don't like the language that a model has "dropped" the storm, arguing it is model continuity. But the physics put into the program, their initialization, creates KNOWN biases in most. The artistry of meteorology is for the Pros to see these recurrent patterns within a model, and, to quote MT. Holly, when a disbelieving solution comes up, you either toss it out completely, or use that word, "BLEND" several models together, to form a consensus. Also, operational runs and ensemble runs will wildly differ. Just go back three years in any system, summer and fall, and look at the verification % of any given model for the same storm, ten days out, five days out, then one. Point made. The vogue is to go with models, but PATTERNS can't be ignored. I respect the modeling, but am not enamored with it. I'd rather wait a few days, and then watch the cluster all start coming together. If there are two storms, I think even Mitchell might agree ( great job forecasting this ice event, by the way ), you see two storms, the Saturday non-event storm suppressed to our South, and OTS, followed by a very nice snow producer out of the Rockies that deepens as it heads east, exits via the Carolinas, my preference, or the Va. Capes. That's the way I see it, no one has to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 how could so many of the long range models be soooo wrong with the initially predicted neg tilt trough ? that needs to be analyzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 how could so many of the long range models be soooo wrong with the initially predicted neg tilt trough ? that needs to be analyzed. plenty of time to go.... teleconnections favor a major storm still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 plenty of time to go.... teleconnections favor a major storm still. Oh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oh?what's left of the -epo (developing aluetian low), se ridge bumping up which should force system more north, quasi 50/50 low, weak (needs to strengthen some) blocking near Davis Strait. We have also seen 5 or 6 times this winter trofs amplifying more than progged. We'll see if this holds but even though a big one isn't on the models verbatim attm, I actually like the pattern to produce something nice.which wave is the question....the one saturday or late sunday into monday? I presume u completely disagree Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 what's left of the -epo (developing aluetian low), se ridge bumping up which should force system more north, quasi 50/50 low, weak (needs to strengthen some) blocking near Davis Strait. We have also seen 5 or 6 times this winter trofs amplifying more than progged. We'll see if this holds but even though a big one isn't on the models verbatim attm, I actually like the pattern to produce something nice.which wave is the question....the one saturday or late sunday into monday? I presume u completely disagree Ray? You did say "Major storm". 6-12" is a significant storm, not major. IMHO. All the caveats you list are not exactly a ringing endorsement of your statement "teleconnections still favor a major storm". Meanwhile, the death of the PNA ridge is not exactly going to help you guys get your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You did say "Major storm". 6-12" is a significant storm, not major. IMHO. All the caveats you list are not exactly a ringing endorsement of your statement "teleconnections still favor a major storm". Meanwhile, the death of the PNA ridge is not exactly going to help you guys get your storm. I was taught that with a -pna teleconnects with a growing se ridge. That would help bump any system north rather than ots like some guidance is suggesting. I'm riding the euro ens mean for this one and while its not really "there" yet, I think it comes around by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 . I'm riding the euro ens mean for this one and while its not really "there" yet, I think it comes around by tomorrow night. ...since the ens continue to amplify the first wave, but show mostly a miss for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I too am wondering how this one "comes back" on the next few model runs. We do see the midrange guidance "lose" the storm and show the flatter/progressive solutions, then inside 72, they seem to sharpen the trough and come back around to earlier model runs. Despite the teleconnections or breakdown thereof, wouldn't it be arguable that this storm can come back to earlier solutions or something similar? This timeframe has been the focus of many redtaggers and I'm a little confused as to what has changed. Ray can you elaborate? thx. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 BTW, I'll again emphasize: I'm not against a storm, or 6-12". More than that looks hard, and a HECS (18+) is seems damn near impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 BTW, I'll again emphasize: I'm not against a storm, or 6-12". More than that looks hard, and a HECS (18+) is seems damn near impossible.I agree with this and when I said "major" I was referencing 6-12" which is still on the table. Hey we're the snow capitol of the east here near phl...I see no reason this one will let us down either. If it does then I'm eating crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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