Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z gfs is a prime example of the recent errors in the medium range. It is struggling recently by holding onto a primary in the Ohio valley area...in this case the primary is farther south into the Tennessee valley. I think this is classic gfs struggling with a split flow and north atlantic blocking pattern. This system should be farther south and east imo based on these factors. It screwed up tomorrow's system in the 5 day range and is doing the same here. And that -epo deserves a round of applause for contributing to this pattern we've been pleasantly stuck in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z gfs is a prime example of the recent errors in the medium range. It is struggling recently by holding onto a primary in the Ohio valley area...in this case the primary is farther south into the Tennessee valley. I think this is classic gfs struggling with a split flow and north atlantic blocking pattern. This system should be farther south and east imo based on these factors. It screwed up tomorrow's system in the 5 day range and is doing the same here. And that -epo deserves a round of applause for contributing to this pattern we've been pleasantly stuck in. -EPO may be first indice I look at for now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 euro 12z total snow from now through hr168 is still showing 24"+ , via storm vista how come when I view 12z Euro from the official ECM site...it doesn't even show a storm. 0.25 qpf max - http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014020312!!/ either that, or it's just missing the whole show in a 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 how come when I view 12z Euro from the official ECM site...it doesn't even show a storm. 0.25 qpf max - http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014020312!!/ clear your cache and cookies....trust me, there's a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 clear your cache and cookies....trust me, there's a storm. That link shows a HUGE storm just SE of Cape Cod on Monday, am I correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Probably doesn't mean anything, but DGEX shows DC to Boston HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That link shows a HUGE storm just SE of Cape Cod on Monday, am I correct? yeah, but a whole lot missing in-between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS doing it's patented lose the big storm between days 5-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS doing it's patented lose the big storm between days 5-6It's still there and it's still a fairly big hit. But the setup has changed on this run.Edit: snow maps have 12-20" for eastern PA. Shades of 2/9-2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Shows like 20" for Philly, different track though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 It held the energy out west longer, but it also had more confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's still there and it's still a fairly big hit. But the setup has changed on this run. Yeah it looked disjointed but did get it's act together just in time for some but a much different look. It is that time frame GFS likes to lose things only to get them back after several bad runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Shows like 20" for Philly, different track though very comical how it managed to do that to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How bout dirty jersey? Not that it means squat right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ECM out closer to bermuda this run a fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I gotta admit, everyone saying how the GFS likes to lose the storm in this time frame, and then seeing the ECM lose it too, gave me a chuckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ECM out closer to bermuda this run a fail great analysis... there wasn't 2 systems that threw back precip into the CWA between 120-144. Yes, they were weaker and tracked S&E of the BM, but it wasn't a complete swing and miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I gotta admit, everyone saying how the GFS likes to lose the storm in this time frame, and then seeing the ECM lose it too, gave me a chuckle 6 GFS has the storm. Mt Holly NWS is making big noise about it in their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6 GFS has the storm. Mt Holly NWS is making big noise about it in their AFD. Take note: I'm not saying it won't happen. I just like all the weeniesms that get thrown around, only to be proven inadequate and/or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take note: I'm not saying it won't happen. I just like all the weeniesms that get thrown around, only to be proven inadequate and/or wrong. Usually, the little thing about a model having a "broken run" or a time period to lose a storm is when the storm is not in the person's favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Seen this 100 times in the past....big mecs shows up, models then shear it or send it ots then it trends back to the coast. This will be no different imo. Classic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS has evolved to a miller B look today's GFS with a primary north to Erie this is not the way we want that to go, still manages to make a SECS out of it for this area but the snow train can easily derail with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS has evolved to a miller B look today's GFS with a primary north to Erie this is not the way we want that to go, still manages to make a SECS out of it for this area but the snow train can easily derail with that setup.we seem to be quickly losing the signal for a mecs on all guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS has evolved to a miller B look today's GFS with a primary north to Erie this is not the way we want that to go, still manages to make a SECS out of it for this area but the snow train can easily derail with that setup. Big BL issues for I-95 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ralph you seem to be ignoring the fact that the GFS still shows a huge storm once it blows up for NE...Doesn't mean it is right, it could easily blow up farther S, a lot depends on how the energy out west is ejected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It happens at this range Ralph im sure the next three GFS and ECM runs will offer different solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It happens at this range Ralph im sure the next three GFS and ECM runs will offer different solutionsyou're likely correct I'm just not liking the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wouldn't the track of the weekend storm depend on what tonight's storm does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LC says toss this run so that s good news :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How many more runs will there be between now and the storm... It's bound to change many times. Still a long way to go. I agree with Highzenberg we have to see how things shape out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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