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2/8 - 2/10 Winter Storm Threat


Heisy

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18z gfs is a prime example of the recent errors in the medium range. It is struggling recently by holding onto a primary in the Ohio valley area...in this case the primary is farther south into the Tennessee valley. I think this is classic gfs struggling with a split flow and north atlantic blocking pattern. This system should be farther south and east imo based on these factors. It screwed up tomorrow's system in the 5 day range and is doing the same here. And that -epo deserves a round of applause for contributing to this pattern we've been pleasantly stuck in.

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18z gfs is a prime example of the recent errors in the medium range. It is struggling recently by holding onto a primary in the Ohio valley area...in this case the primary is farther south into the Tennessee valley. I think this is classic gfs struggling with a split flow and north atlantic blocking pattern. This system should be farther south and east imo based on these factors. It screwed up tomorrow's system in the 5 day range and is doing the same here. And that -epo deserves a round of applause for contributing to this pattern we've been pleasantly stuck in.

-EPO may be first indice I look at for now on.

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euro 12z total snow from now through hr168 is still showing 24"+ , via storm vista

 

how come when I view 12z Euro from the official ECM site...it doesn't even show a storm.  0.25 qpf max -

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014020312!!/

 

 

either that, or it's just missing the whole show in a 24 hour period. 

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clear your cache and cookies....trust me, there's a storm.
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It's still there and it's still a fairly big hit. But the setup has changed on this run.

Yeah it looked disjointed but did get it's act together just in time for some but a much different look. It is that time frame GFS likes to lose things only to get them back after several bad runs

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ECM out closer to bermuda this run a fail

great analysis... there wasn't 2 systems that threw back precip into the CWA between 120-144. Yes, they were weaker and tracked S&E of the BM, but it wasn't a complete swing and miss.

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GFS has evolved to a miller B look today's GFS with a primary north to Erie this is not the way we want that to go, still manages to make a SECS out of it for this area but the snow train can easily derail with that setup. 

Big BL issues for I-95 on this run.

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