Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's 5:00 and the AFD isn't even out yet..lol..nom nom nom Just read the AFD for amounts They're still not budging...NBD per the AFD and the maps. It's like Jeremey R is at the controls from WHDH. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 444 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 MONDAY... UPPER JET LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GENERATE LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS AND A COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY SNOW OVER LAND. BUT WITH SRN NEW ENGLAND ON THE EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD...WE FIGURE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW...MELTED VALUES PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND PCPN YIELD UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND LESS FARTHER NORTH. WE ARE MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...LIKELY POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CATEGORICAL POPS ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Seriously wtf is going on in Taunton? No accumulations and a 50% chance of snow for Monday? EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH415 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN ASLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION20 PERCENT..MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. PATCHY FOG INTHE MORNING. MUCH COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S.NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH..MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING.LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 They're still not budging...NBD per the AFD and the maps. It's like Jeremey R is at the controls from WHDH. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 444 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 MONDAY... UPPER JET LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GENERATE LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS AND A COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY SNOW OVER LAND. BUT WITH SRN NEW ENGLAND ON THE EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD...WE FIGURE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW...MELTED VALUES PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND PCPN YIELD UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND LESS FARTHER NORTH. WE ARE MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...LIKELY POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CATEGORICAL POPS ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. Based on the text forecasts they are going with 1-3 for far SE areas and under an inch for the rest of the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Enjoy your Super Bowl. No snow incoming apparently. Everyone's going to wake up hungover, and be surprised. Traffic mayhem tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't think it really mixes here on the Cape its already 39F here and the front is nowhere close to the shoreline. The cooler SSTs will pay off, and with the storms this winter, the Cape hasn't mixed. The 2M temps on all guidance is fairly warm for the Cape area (mid to upper 30's)...although they def do cool some as the day goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 even the Tolland DPW gets the day off, only a 50% chance of snow...nothing to worry about. CTZ003-030900-TOLLAND CT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNION...VERNON415 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCEOF SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOWAFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT..MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH COOLER.NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND5 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 LOL, the Taunton NWS office is laughable, wasn't like this before today, ok they had their moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Based on the text forecasts they are going with 1-3 for far SE areas and under an inch for the rest of the area..lol Mostly cloudy is progged for here. I might get a few flakes, but not much more than a trace methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't think we warm up as much as they are saying, it won't be enough to limit accumulations in my opinion. The NWS is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Based on the text forecasts they are going with 1-3 for far SE areas and under an inch for the rest of the area..lol They have nothing for Taunton, nothing for Plymouth or the Cape....the only places they really have any accumulation at all is Block Island and New Bedford/Fall River. Everyone else gets shut out...partly cloudy with a 50% chance of a seagull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 With everyone differing in opinion so much nobody is really providing any insight or data to back up why they are feeling so. Instead of just knocking the NWS just add some insight as to why everyone feels the way they do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 They have nothing for Taunton, nothing for Plymouth or the Cape....the only places they really have any accumulation at all is Block Island and New Bedford/Fall River. Everyone else gets shut out...partly cloudy with a 50% chance of a seagull. Yeah, I gaurentee you nobody is going to check tonight after the game if they decide to change it either. People will be thinking nbd when they go to bed tonight. I suppose they could score a coup, but models are still amping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Statements like "the NWS is laughable" is a bit harsh. Let's tone it down. I agree that map is painfully low..but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 perhaps they are still assesing the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Taunton has a new map as of 4:59. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowFcst.png http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php They also say it could be a lot more. Cue "so you are saying I have got a chance" jokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Statements like "the NWS is laughable" is a bit harsh. Let's tone it down. I agree that map is painfully low..but still. I think you could get it good 6 inches maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think you could get it good 6 inches maybe? I'm thinking 4-6" here. This is going to be a quick mover. I could see S CT and RI getting 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lol @ last page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You guys have to relax a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lol @ last page Wed also accum map. Bos and s shore and cape Ann look like BL temps become an issue instead of ML temps, didnt expect that. I don't think it's an issue near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 All models with the exception of the GFS even all SR guidance suggest the best banding occurs along the South Coast of MA, RI and CT, Cape Cod likely gets the best banding as storm pulls away. Given that most guidance has us in the 3-6" range with even more likely, there is a chance that the NWS is not a likely forecast. They are likely paying much too much attention to the SSTs environment, but given that the storm will be rather weak at the surface, winds won't be much of an issue, but they do come out of the north, so there will be a cold air drain into the storm and with a track to the south of the region, there will likely be no warm air to speak of for us, so this will likely be a 3-5", maybe 6-8" in banding skirting the south coasts, with 6-8" most likely along the Islands. Heavy precip rates will over come temp differences. I have seen my fair share of marginal events become 6" events along the South Coast. Banding has come further northward in extent with these setups time after time again. In my opinion the NAM/EURO combo is likely a winner in this setup as they have been fairly consistent with QPF and track of surface low with the GFS last to catch up and GGEM also in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You guys have to relax a bit. But the children!!! Messenger is gassing up his car and sharpening his ruler and charging his camera to send BOX pics tmrw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You guys have to relax a bit. Scott I've given them nothing but props but they lacked on this one badly. They've been slow all day to update...and I think they're still too low now by maybe 30-40%. Provided we get into the heavier precip the freezing line is going to collapse through interior SE NE...almost to the coast probably around 12z while it begins to snow heavily. Barring this thing going south in the late stages these forecasts are going to lack terribly for areas in interior SNE/RI/MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 BTV WRF really doesnt give anyone away from s coast anything. Nyc then sharp cut off away from s coast. James calm down buddy, we like u Scott i think this one obv can still hit you but best banding looks a bit south. Sharp cut off from nyc e/ene http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 BTV WRF really doesnt give anyone away from s coast anything. Nyc then sharp cut off away from s coast. James calm down buddy, we like u Scott i think this one obv can still hit you but best banding looks a bit south. Sharp cut off from nyc e/ene That model is awful. Why do you always talk about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 BTV WRF really doesnt give anyone away from s coast anything. Nyc then sharp cut off away from s coast. James calm down buddy, we like u Scott i think this one obv can still hit you but best banding looks a bit south. Sharp cut off from nyc e/ene WRF has blown for many of the systems down here...it's about as useful as a 36 hour RAP forecast with these types of events IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Rgem came north again. It gives @2 inches to the pike , 3-4 to N Ct over to N Ri to Scooter, and 3-5. Lolli 6 in s Ct on east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Rgem came north again. It gives @2 inches to the pike , 3-4 to N Ct over to N Ri to Scooter, and 3-5. Lolli 6 in s Ct on east Serious question, but do you know where I live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Scott I've given them nothing but props but they lacked on this one badly. They've been slow all day to update...and I think they're still too low now by maybe 30-40%. Provided we get into the heavier precip the freezing line is going to collapse through interior SE NE...almost to the coast probably around 12z while it begins to snow heavily. Barring this thing going south in the late stages these forecasts are going to lack terribly for areas in interior SNE/RI/MA. It was a general comment..lol. Let things just play out and we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 well if it does shift south last minute and leaves most of us ovc with flurries or even under 2 inches they score A HUGE VICTORY!! maybe they are not sold on a region wide hit til looking at tonights data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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