Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Monday snow event discussion/observations Feb. 3


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

It's 5:00 and the AFD isn't even out yet..lol..nom nom nom

 

Just read the AFD for amounts

 

They're still not budging...NBD per the AFD and the maps.  It's like Jeremey R is at the controls from WHDH.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

444 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

 

MONDAY...

UPPER JET LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE

REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GENERATE LIFT IN

ADDITION TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS AND A COLDER AIRMASS

WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR

MAINLY SNOW OVER LAND. BUT WITH SRN NEW ENGLAND ON THE EDGE OF

THE PCPN SHIELD...WE FIGURE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW...MELTED

VALUES PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE

COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND PCPN YIELD UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE

SOUTH COAST AND LESS FARTHER NORTH.

WE ARE MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...LIKELY

POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CATEGORICAL POPS ON THE WATERS SOUTH

OF THE ISLANDS.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 799
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Seriously wtf is going on in Taunton? 

 

No accumulations and a 50% chance of snow for Monday?

 

EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH
415 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
20 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. PATCHY FOG IN
THE MORNING. MUCH COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S.
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They're still not budging...NBD per the AFD and the maps. It's like Jeremey R is at the controls from WHDH.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

444 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

MONDAY...

UPPER JET LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE

REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GENERATE LIFT IN

ADDITION TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS AND A COLDER AIRMASS

WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR

MAINLY SNOW OVER LAND. BUT WITH SRN NEW ENGLAND ON THE EDGE OF

THE PCPN SHIELD...WE FIGURE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW...MELTED

VALUES PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE

COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND PCPN YIELD UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE

SOUTH COAST AND LESS FARTHER NORTH.

WE ARE MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...LIKELY

POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CATEGORICAL POPS ON THE WATERS SOUTH

OF THE ISLANDS.

Based on the text forecasts they are going with 1-3 for far SE areas and under an inch for the rest of the area..
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think it really mixes here on the Cape its already 39F here and the front is nowhere close to the shoreline.  The cooler SSTs will pay off, and with the storms this winter, the Cape hasn't mixed.

 

The 2M temps on all guidance is fairly warm for the Cape area (mid to upper 30's)...although they def do cool some as the day goes on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

even the Tolland DPW gets the day off, only a 50% chance of snow...nothing to worry about.

 

CTZ003-030900-
TOLLAND CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNION...VERNON
415 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH COOLER.
NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on the text forecasts they are going with 1-3 for  far SE areas and under an inch for the rest of the area..lol

 

They have nothing for Taunton, nothing for Plymouth or the Cape....the only places they really have any accumulation at all is Block Island and New Bedford/Fall River.

 

Everyone else gets shut out...partly cloudy with a 50% chance of a seagull.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They have nothing for Taunton, nothing for Plymouth or the Cape....the only places they really have any accumulation at all is Block Island and New Bedford/Fall River.

Everyone else gets shut out...partly cloudy with a 50% chance of a seagull.

Yeah, I gaurentee you nobody is going to check tonight after the game if they decide to change it either.

People will be thinking nbd when they go to bed tonight. I suppose they could score a coup, but models are still amping up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All models with the exception of the GFS even all SR guidance suggest the best banding occurs along the South Coast of MA, RI and CT, Cape Cod likely gets the best banding as storm pulls away.  Given that most guidance has us in the 3-6" range with even more likely, there is a chance that the NWS is not a likely forecast.  They are likely paying much too much attention to the SSTs environment, but given that the storm will be rather weak at the surface, winds won't be much of an issue, but they do come out of the north, so there will be a cold air drain into the storm and with a track to the south of the region, there will likely be no warm air to speak of for us, so this will likely be a 3-5", maybe 6-8" in banding skirting the south coasts, with 6-8" most likely along the Islands.  Heavy precip rates will over come temp differences.  I have seen my fair share of marginal events become 6" events along the South Coast.  Banding has come further northward in extent with these setups time after time again.  In my opinion the NAM/EURO combo is likely a winner in this setup as they have been fairly consistent with QPF and track of surface low with the GFS last to catch up and GGEM also in agreement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys have to relax a bit. 

Scott I've given them nothing but props but they lacked on this one badly.  They've been slow all day to update...and I think they're still too low now by maybe 30-40%. 

Provided we get into the heavier precip the freezing line is going to collapse through interior SE NE...almost to the coast probably around 12z while it begins to snow heavily.

 

Barring this thing going south in the late stages these forecasts are going to lack terribly for areas in interior SNE/RI/MA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BTV WRF really doesnt give anyone away from s coast anything. Nyc then sharp cut off away from s coast.

James calm down buddy, we like u

Scott i think this one obv can still hit you but best banding looks a bit south. Sharp cut off from nyc e/ene

WRF has blown for many of the systems down here...it's about as useful as a 36 hour RAP forecast with these types of events IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Scott I've given them nothing but props but they lacked on this one badly.  They've been slow all day to update...and I think they're still too low now by maybe 30-40%. 

Provided we get into the heavier precip the freezing line is going to collapse through interior SE NE...almost to the coast probably around 12z while it begins to snow heavily.

 

Barring this thing going south in the late stages these forecasts are going to lack terribly for areas in interior SNE/RI/MA.

 

It was a general comment..lol. Let things just play out and we'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...