Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Forest thru the trees. Like how this way came back over the past 24h. I mentioned the possibility of this system last week as did a few others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Got to love the trends for us in SNE. Might make a mess of the evening commute though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Might actually manage some decent dendrites on the south coast tomorrow... big fluffy aggregates? Snow growth looks decent... and it's way up there - around 500 hpa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There is also deformation banding potential on the s coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Might actually manage some decent dendrites on the south coast tomorrow... big fluffy aggregates? Snow growth looks decent... and it's way up there - around 500 hpa! should be a clingy Currier Ives snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still snow OTG down south of me. Pretty amazing. Patches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There is also deformation banding potential on the s coast too. Yes. I think this will be close to here this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Might actually manage some decent dendrites on the south coast tomorrow... big fluffy aggregates? Snow growth looks decent... and it's way up there - around 500 hpa! Waiting to view the 12z Euro but looking on GFS soundings it does look pretty sweet for coastal CT tomorrow...they will certainly do better than us. I'm still a bit worried though about going anything more than like 2-4'' (especially northern half of CT)...the column is only saturated for a short amount of time and the heaviest QPF is only overhead for a brief window...and during this time would we be seeing snow rates exceeding 1-1.5''/HR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to see snowfall rates reaching 1-2"/hour for around 3+ hours sometime tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Right now looks like a 9-12 hour event. An appetizer to the two main events. Cape Cod could see 6-8" if we get into the banding, if I was the NWS I would issue a winter storm warning, or at least a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's possible that some of those stronger VV's reach the south coast but other than that lift doesn't look all that impressive (at least to me) and besides the jump north in higher QPF values I just don't see much of anything to really support a widespread 3-5''...however, that doesn't apply to the south coast as obviously they would have a better chance as they could get into the banding. Looking at bufkit snowgrowth is definitely quite favorable (as Ryan said) and there is omega within that zone...nothing overly impressive though. Perhaps I'm overlooking something but I am thinking 1-3'' for interior and 2-4'' for extreme southern CT/RI and into portions of SE MA excluding the Cape where mixing will be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is BOX really this unimpressed or is this ancient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Right now I would give this forecast based on the latest model runs: Nantucket, MA 8" Chatham, MA 7" Hyannis, MA 6" Falmouth, MA 6" Vineyard Haven, MA 6" Providence, RI 4" Boston, MA 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Game is on . Mos defYup my negativity is all gone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thinking schools are going to be open tomorrow, with Wednesday probably closing them. Could be a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I would not open schools tomorrow for Cape Cod and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yikes just looked at the Taunton AFD. What's going on? This was posted at 153pm today? Superbowl party started early? Tons of schools rely strictly on NOAA. C'mon guys time for an update because if the later models are right this forecast is going to lead to a lot of bad/dangerous decisions down here. MONDAY...UPPER JET LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RIGHT ENTRANCEREGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GENERATE LIFT INADDITION TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS AND A COLDER AIRMASSWILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORMAINLY SNOW OVER LAND. BUT WITH SRN NEW ENGLAND ON THE EDGE OFTHE PCPN SHIELD...WE FIGURE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW...MELTEDVALUES PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THECOMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND PCPN YIELD UP TO AN INCH ALONG THESOUTH COAST AND LESS FARTHER NORTH.WE ARE MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...LIKELYPOPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CATEGORICAL POPS ON THE WATERS SOUTHOF THE ISLANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yikes just looked at the Taunton AFD. What's going on? This was posted at 153pm today? Superbowl party started early? Tons of schools rely strictly on NOAA. C'mon guys time for an update because if the later models are right this forecast is going to lead to a lot of bad/dangerous decisions down here. MONDAY... UPPER JET LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GENERATE LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS AND A COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY SNOW OVER LAND. BUT WITH SRN NEW ENGLAND ON THE EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD...WE FIGURE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW...MELTED VALUES PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND PCPN YIELD UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND LESS FARTHER NORTH. WE ARE MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...LIKELY POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CATEGORICAL POPS ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. Yeah that was their morning discussion, they haven't updated anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah that was their morning discussion, they haven't updated anything yet. I've been complimentary of ktan all winter...they're dropping the ball here in a bad way. People are leaving for the game. Advisories should be up now. Lots of people won't know about the snow or plan for it in time. It's 430 and there's silence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just generated this map. While it's nice to see a northward shift with QPF axis, it takes more than just QPF to get higher precipitation, in this case snowfall totals. While snow growth looks pretty decent with the zone up near 18K to 20K there isn't a tremendous amount of lift, although it does increase as you work south across SNE, hence where my axis of higher totals are. Other factors taken into considering where the speed of the storm and the duration of the higher QPF values. I've also taken into account experiences from this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RAP is impressive, usually sniffs this stuff out.. gets heavy snow into northern ct by 6am I'm thinking 1-3" north of 84, 3-6" south of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't think it really mixes here on the Cape its already 39F here and the front is nowhere close to the shoreline. The cooler SSTs will pay off, and with the storms this winter, the Cape hasn't mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 RAP is impressive, usually sniffs this stuff out.. gets heavy snow into northern ct by 6am I'm thinking 1-3" north of 84, 3-6" south of 84. With all guidance combined..it would look like 2-4 N. CT and 3-6 S CT. I'd go 1-3 up to ORh to BOS and 2-4 From Pike south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 With all guidance combined..it would look like 2-4 N. CT and 3-6 S CT. I'd go 1-3 up to ORh to BOS and 2-4 From Pike south. I'd go 1-3" N. CT and 3-5" S. CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just generated this map. While it's nice to see a northward shift with QPF axis, it takes more than just QPF to get higher precipitation, in this case snowfall totals. While snow growth looks pretty decent with the zone up near 18K to 20K there isn't a tremendous amount of lift, although it does increase as you work south across SNE, hence where my axis of higher totals are. Other factors taken into considering where the speed of the storm and the duration of the higher QPF values. I've also taken into account experiences from this past winter. 1st call snow map.jpg Good luck with your prediction, Paul. Thanks for keeping me in the area that receives nothing. I do have clouds in my forecast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like they said screw it to Monday...jumping right ahead to the midweek system with the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2-4 3-6 lolli to 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Did they really not issue a map for tomorrow? Lol what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's 5:00 and the AFD isn't even out yet.. Just read the AFD for amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Good luck with your prediction, Paul. Thanks for keeping me in the area that receives nothing. I do have clouds in my forecast though. You get rewarded come Wed/Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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